Tuesday, February 22, 2011

To Punt or Not to Punt?

OK, Part Two of the Punter's Bible right here. Today we cover saves, but first, a quick refresher on the pitching categories:

Wins. Losses. Saves. Strikeouts. ERA. WHIP.

Let's talk about those first two. You'd think with losses in there that I should be stockpiling relievers, right? Not so much. Remember this is a head-to-head league, so you can always play the matchups to your advantage. Got Jeremy Hellickson going against the Yankees this week? Bench him. Playing your starters selectively generally will only cost you in the strikeout column, but smart management should pull you victories in losses, ERA and WHIP. Strangely enough, those are the categories that closers are supposed to help you with. So why not double your pleasure and pick up some stoppers?

Not so fast, triggerman. Here are the pitchers who finished in the top eleven in saves and their corresponding draft day values:

Brian Wilson - 48 SV, $18
Heath Bell - 47 SV, $20
Rafael Soriano - 45 SV, $19
Joakim Soria - 43 SV, $24
Matt Capps - 42 SV, $5
Francisco Cordero - 40 SV, $27
Neftali Feliz - 40 SV, $9
Carlos Marmol - 38 SV, $21
Kevin Gregg - 37 SV, $1
Jonathan Papelbon - 37 SV, $30
Billy Wagner - 37 SV, $17

Elite closers tend to go for around $20 in this league, give or take a buck, but look at the 3 guys who went for single digits. Plus, consider that Jonathan Broxton went for $27 and was terribly disappointing with only 22 saves and less than stellar ancillary numbers.

There's just too much variation from year to year in the quality of closers to invest heavily in them. Plus, with the risk of injury, there's always going to be a few guys in the free agent pool who get a shot to close at some point.

On top of that, in a weekly head-to-head league, your stud closer may never even see the ball. I completely punted saves last year and ended up tying that category at least a half dozen times with a grand total of zero saves. So what are they good for?

Well, I probably would have actually won a few of those if I even had one really inconsistent, low-dollar closer. It's probably worth the ERA and WHIP gamble (those inevitable one-inning meltdowns are much more damaging in head-to-head) as long as you have a stable of consistent starters chewing up a fair amount of innings without getting torched.

This year, I'll probably plop a couple bucks down on somebody like Craig Kimbrel in Atlanta or Jake McGee in Tampa, guys who haven't proven anything or are going to be part of a committee. Or maybe even a Rafael Soriano, who would grab the reins in case anything happened to the Sandman (I made this bet last year on Joba Chamberlain; fool me once...)

Again, with the peculiarities of a 20-team head-to-head league, I can get away with punting or gambling on some set-up guys, but I still won't be paying top dollar for a closer. I'd rather save my limited pitching dollars for a starter with a reliable track record.

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