Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Mannyball



Manny Ramirez, only the second major-leaguer to be busted twice for performance-enhancing drugs* and the first to be handed a 100-game suspension, signed a minor-league deal with the Oakland Athletics. He will receive an invitation to spring training where he will have the opportunity to make the major league club before serving his reduced 50-game sentence. Assuming he makes the team, Manny will be allowed to play in extended spring training games during his suspension, so he should be able to keep his skill set relatively sharp.

So what is Manny Ramirez worth in the fantasy game?

First of all, let's talk history. Manny has a career .312 batting average, which puts him in 9th place among all active MLB hitters. He's a 12-time All-Star, has 9 Silver Slugger awards, 555 homers (14th all-time), 1,831 RBI (18th all-time), a .585 slugging percentage and a .996 OPS (each 9th best all-time). If not for the 2 PED suspensions and the third positive test that MLB never acted on, he'd be a nearly unanimous first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. But alas...

The last we saw of Manny was his 5 game stint in Tampa before the announcement of his 100-game suspension and subsequent retirement. He had 1 hit in 17 at-bats, which is one more major league hit than most of us will ever get. Prior to that, Manny hadn't hit under .290 since his rookie season in 1994, a streak of 16 seasons in Cleveland, Boston, Chavez Ravine and the south side of Chicago. There were a lot of things Manny couldn't do - field his position, get along with management, join his world champion teammates at the White House, keep from abusing his wife, stay off the juice - but hitting the ball was never in doubt.

Even at 40 years old (which he will be when his suspension is over) and over a year removed from his last MLB at-bat, I have little doubt that Manny will find a way to get hits. The real question is, how many chances will the A's give him? Billy Beane has stockpiled outfielders and first basemen, and unless there's a way to put more than 5 of those guys in the lineup every day, someone's going to lose at-bats. Manny was a liability in the outfield in his prime, so there's no way that he touches grass at his current age.

Seth Smith, Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick are the frontrunners for outfield jobs left-to-right. Yoenis Cespedes should push one of those guys out when the club decides he's MLB-ready, which could be as early as Opening Day. Colin Cowgill, Jonny Gomes and a few talented farmhands are competing to make the club out of spring training. Then there's the 4-headed logjam at first base between Daric Barton, Chris Carter, Brandon Allen and Kila Ka'aihue. When Manny shows up in late May, something's got to give.

Is Manny a better DH option than Seth Smith or Josh Reddick? Can you play percentages with Manny? Does he fit in a platoon role? Part of the signing is to help boost attendance. Manny = money, even though you don't have to pay him a dime over $306K. Nobody expects Oakland to contend this year given the Angels and the Rangers loaded squads, but do you let Manny take at-bats away from the talent you're trying to develop so you can contend 2-3 years from now?

If he ends up being Oakland's everyday DH and stays healthy, I think Manny's capable of a .285, 10 HR, 55 RBI season over about 300 at-bats. Probably worth a $1 or a late-round flyer if you have a deep bench and can afford to stash him for two months. However, if a couple of the A's outfield is reasonably productive through May, there would be intense pressure to keep Manny on the pine or cut him outright.

It's as unpredictable as, well, Manny.

*Neifi Perez, of all people, was the other. He hit .172 with 1 home run the year he was suspended twice (2007).

No comments:

Post a Comment