Look out behind you, Albert. You've got company.
Albert Pujols signed the third $200+ million contract in MLB history (the first two belong to Alex Rodriguez) and will be anchoring first base in Anaheim for the foreseeable future. There's little doubt that Pujols is worthy of a $25 million salary for the next 3-4 years, given his historic production over the past eleven.
But upon signing with the Angels, the "player in decline" rhetoric that has floated around Pujols for the last few seasons got turned up to 11: he's locked up until age 41 and they'll owe him around $30 million in the final year of the contract. I've heard that the end was nigh for Pujols every spring after his sub-par (for him) 2007 campaign. All he's done since is hit .323 and average 41 homers, 117 RBI and 111 runs in the last 4 seasons. I have no doubt that Albert will make the transition to the American League with no difficulty and put up another typical Pujols year. If I had first pick in my fantasy draft, I'd probably take him...
...if it weren't for Miguel Cabrera moving to third base. The former Tiger first baseman - supplanted by the newest member of the $200 million club, Prince Fielder - has been the steadiest of ships over his 9 year career. Banking on a .320 average, 30-35 homers, 110-120 RBI and around 100 runs this season is one of the easiest bets you could make, especially since he'll be hitting ahead of Fielder in the Detroit lineup. He'd be the second first baseman on my board behind Pujols, but when you add in the 3B eligibility, he becomes far and away the top player available.
So what does Fielder's debut season in Detroit hold? I don't see a reason to think that there will be a major drop-off from his last three seasons. Comerica Park does tend to punish left-handed power a bit, but Prince wasn't exactly hitting wall-scraping homers in Milwaukee. He should hit somewhere around 30-35 homers and drive in a ton of runs, though I have some reservations about the rest of the lineup behind him being able to drive him in. The big gaps at Comerica do actually help a big, lumbering runner like Fielder as he can smack a lot of doubles and score a little easier from second than he would in a smaller park.
Heavy speculation that Joey Votto will be the next member of that exclusive $200 million club. He's in his last year with the Reds and has put up impressive (if not spectacular) numbers over the past 3 seasons, including his 2010 MVP campaign. I don't believe in walk-year bumps, and especially not from guys with a temperament like Votto's. I do expect a season that should look suspiciously like Miguel Cabrera's and you can grab him in the mid-to-late first round. Not a bad deal.
Adrian Gonzalez's first season with the Red Sox was a huge success as he set career highs in hits, runs, batting average and on-base percentage. Clearly, he has benefited from getting out of Petco Park and into a much more friendly hitting environment. I'd expect something close to a repeat of last year's numbers, especially if the team can come together under new manager Bobby Valentine. During Boston's horrendous September stretch, A-Gone drew 21 walks (6 of them intentional), a sure sign that opposing pitchers were more than happy to face someone else in the scuffling Sox lineup.
Yankee first baseman Mark Teixeira has seen a marked decline in batting average over his last three seasons in the Bronx. He still hits a solid .295 against lefties over that span, but the switch-hitter has posted a .287, .247, and .223 against righties and an exaggerated defensive shift. In response, Teixeira has dropped 15 pounds of fat over the offseason and is even talking about bunting against the shift to try to raise his average. He would really only need to do it a couple of times before teams would go back to a traditional defensive alignment, which should help his average get closer to his career .281 mark.
Second Tier:
Paul Konerko - White Sox
Michael Morse - Nationals
Eric Hosmer - Royals
Mark Reynolds - Orioles
Michael Young - Rangers
Mike Napoli - Rangers
Konerko will be 36 years old on opening day. Pundits have loudly announced the end of his career on several occasions, and eventually they're going to be right. I just don't think it'll be this year. He just about single-handedly carried the Chicago offense last year, and I find it hard to believe that they'll look that bad this season.
One of the few smart projections I made last year was on Michael Morse. I saw a big power year, but not much else. All he did was hit 31 homers and back it up with a .303 average and 95 RBIs. I'd like to see a little more plate discipline this year, but I think Morse will have a solid follow-up to his breakout year with the Nationals.
The hate has been flowing against Eric Hosmer this spring, but I can't really put my finger on why. The biggest hole I see in his game is his relative inability to hit lefties, which may lose him some at-bats to Billy Butler. Still, I don't think righties have a book on him yet, so Hosmer's worth a shot, but I wouldn't count on him as an anchor yet.
Mark Reynolds slides into the second tier on power alone. There's no mystery to this guy's game: go yard or go home. Reynolds has a home run, a walk, or a strikeout in over half of his plate appearances. Rob Deer would be so proud. On the plus side, 2011 was the first season since 2007 that he did not lead the majors in strikeouts: Drew Stubbs topped him, 205-196.
During last year's spring camp, everyone expected the Rangers to trade Michael Young, assuming that the acquisition of Adrian Beltre would squeeze him out of playing time. Instead Young accepted a utility/DH role and tied for the league lead in hits. Expect more of the same (though with a batting average closer to his career .304 mark) in this high-octane offense.
Third Tier:
Kendrys Morales - Angels
Mark Trumbo - Angels
Howie Kendrick - Angels
Kevin Youkilis - Red Sox
Billy Butler - Royals
Carlos Pena - Rays
Michael Cuddyer - Rockies
Nick Swisher - Yankees
The Angels' logjam at 1B/LF/RF/DH seems like a ticking time bomb. Obviously Pujols isn't going anywhere, so that leaves Morales, Trumbo, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu vying for 3 lineup spots. Morales still has to prove that he's healthy, but if he does he'll suck up a fair number of DH at-bats due to his surgically repaired ankle. Trumbo is learning how to play third base, but he'll have to really show something to push natural 3Bs Alberto Callaspo and Maicer Izturis out of playing time, even though Trumbo has the best bat of the trio. Abreu appears to be the odd man out, but his contract is unmovable.
This might be Kevin Youkilis's "phoenix from the ashes" season. He's been plagued by injuries the last two years, but still managed to put up respectable numbers. At 33, he's probably got one more great campaign in him, but I wouldn't reach too far to get him this year.
Everyone seems content to believe that Billy Butler's power ceiling is about 20 homers. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that's his floor. He'll turn 26 in April and he hit for much better power last year down the stretch when the Royals were clicking on offense.
The Rays got their franchise home run leader back in Carlos Pena. He'll have free reign to swing for the fences, and with Tampa's talented table-setters hitting in front of him, he should be able to post some respectable counting numbers.
I'll cover Kendrick and Cuddyer more in-depth when I rank second basemen (Cuddyer will be a right fielder in Colorado, but is still 2B eligible and holds higher fantasy value there) and Swisher will get his due when I rank outfielders.
Question Marks:
Lance Berkman - Cardinals
Ryan Howard - Phillies
Ike Davis - Mets
Lucas Duda - Mets
Gaby Sanchez - Marlins
Adam Lind - Blue Jays
Paul Goldschmidt - Diamondbacks
Freddie Freeman - Braves
Justin Morneau - Twins
Adam LaRoche - Nationals
Adam Dunn - White Sox
Berkman had his "phoenix rising from the ashes" season last year, and I think a lot of people are expecting a steep regression from the 36 year-old.
Howard may not return from his freak Achilles injury until mid-to-late May. He should put up good numbers, but obviously his value takes a hit with all the missed time.
Ike Davis just cannot catch a break. He was well on his way to posting a statement season when he rolled his ankle and lost most of 2011 to injury. Now, it's being reported that he's contracted valley fever, a fungal infection that causes flu-like symptoms and can nag for months. So far, the Mets don't seem concerned, but their young 1B might start to think he's cursed.
The improved Miami Marlins lineup should benefit Sanchez in the RBI column, but the organization doesn't have a whole lot of confidence in him as a long term answer at first base.
Is Adam Lind ever going to show the same plate discipline that he did in his 2009 career year? I really doubt it, but the power is still there in bunches.
The starting 1B gig in Arizona belongs to Goldschmidt, but he needs to show the same combo of power and discipline that he did in the minors. Easy enough to say when you play in the same division as Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum.
Freddie Freeman is the guy experts point to as having the same general profile as Eric Hosmer, but going later in drafts. Good opportunity to get value here, though keep an eye on his recently dislocated kneecap.
The concussion Justin Morneau sustained in 2010 seems to have fundamentally changed the former MVP, so much so that he's openly considering retirement if he can't get himself right. I'm not expecting much from him this year, but I'd like to be surprised.
Adam LaRoche was a remarkably consistent performer until last year's attempt to play through a torn labrum torpedoed his season. It remains to be seen if he's recovered from surgery, but there could be sleeper value here.
Adam Dunn put up what very well may be the single worst season of baseball that any hitter has ever had. He was mercifully held out of games at the end of the season so that he wouldn't qualify for the batting title: he would have obliterated the record for lowest qualified batting average, besting (worsting?) Rob Deer's .179 mark by 20 points. Nothing about Dunn's struggles last year made any sense. While he was always a free-swinger, he still showed a pretty sharp batting eye, drawing 75 walks. There was just no contact. Hopefully the regime shake-up on the south side will be fruitful for Dunn and he can regain some of the form that he lost.
