
Get used to that sight: Mike Napoli admiring another moon shot.
Power has never been a question for the Rangers' backstop, but age might become one soon. Napoli turned 30 last Halloween, and if your last name isn't Molina, that usually signals the downslope of a catcher's career. I'm not expecting a precipitous decline this season - though I think last year's .320 batting average will be pretty tough to match - but he probably has about 2 or 3 more monster power years in him. He's also got a pretty tragic injury history, losing significant parts of 3 seasons including last year. Not to mention that he's coming off a sprained ankle sustained in the World Series that was still troubling him at the beginning of spring camp. Still, Napoli's at the top of my list, though you can really only expect about 100-120 games out of him.
The Indians' Carlos Santana shares the top tier of my list with Napoli. Santana came off his own devastating injury in 2010 to post an impressive season last year. There's still a fair amount of room for him to improve (especially in batting average and defense), but he demonstrated a good eye at the plate (97 walks in 658 plate appearances) and a powerful bat. I see about the same production out of Santana this year as last - he put up a .239 average with 27 homers, 79 RBI and 84 runs scored - and is probably a safer choice than Napoli if you're trying to decide between the two. I personally give the edge to Napoli on the chance that he might stay healthy all year, in which case the counting numbers should be staggering.
If you don't feel like gambling on follow-ups to Napoli's career year or Santana's breakout campaign, think about Brian McCann. The Braves' backstop has been remarkably consistent over his 6 full seasons, batting at a .287 clip and averaging 22 homers, 86 RBIs and 60 runs over that span. There's no reason to believe that he's in for a regression. In fact, at 28 years old, he may be primed for his best season in 2012.
Miguel Montero is in close to the same boat as McCann: a solid catcher who will help your squad across the board. He doesn't excel in any one category, but is overall above average at the position. I'm projecting a .275/15/65/60 floor for the season, though if the D-Backs improved offense clicks together, he's poised to do some real damage.
Last year, I was understandably cautious about Joe Mauer. He was coming off of arthroscopic knee surgery (you never want to hear about catchers with knee trouble) and ended up missing the first half of the season. In the second half, he caught pneumonia and was sapped of health, strength and effectiveness. A disaster year for the former MVP and 3-time batting champion. This spring, Mauer arrived to Twins camp 30 pounds heavier than at the end of last season - back to his typical 235 - and ready to put last year's disappointment behind him. A healthy Mauer, even in the power-sucking Target Field environment, is still capable of a return to form. Lot of fantasy experts out there saying not to touch him, so he could be an excellent value since I suspect he'll fall pretty far in drafts. Just don't expect any kind of power: 5-10 HR, tops.
Second Tier:
Buster Posey - Giants
Alex Avila - Tigers
Matt Wieters - Orioles
J.P. Arencibia - Blue Jays
Posey is only down here because we need to see how he bounces back from that gruesome injury last year. He had a stellar rookie campaign, but wasn't really showing much in 2011 before he got hurt.
Avila had a breakout year last year and needs to prove it was no fluke. He'll have the job all to himself in 2012: Victor Martinez (who started behind the plate against lefties, when healthy) will miss the entire season with a torn ACL.
Three seasons into the Matt Wieters Era and he keeps showing us more and more. I don't know if he's ready to jump into the top tier yet, but one more year like 2011 and it'll be a no-brainer.
Arencibia is an interesting case. He clubbed 23 homers last year, but struck out 133 times in 443 at-bats en route to a .219 average. With the defensively superior prospect Travis d'Arnaud breathing down his neck, he is going to have to mash to keep his job.
Third Tier:
Wilson Ramos - Nationals
Yadier Molina - Cardinals
Salvador Perez - Royals
Carlos Ruiz - Phillies
A.J. Pierzynski - White Sox
Ramos had a solid rookie season and is a bright spot on a Nats team I expect to perform much better than the 2011 edition.
Molina just signed a 5 year/$75 million dollar contract extension, which means the Cards place a much higher value on him than I do. Defense doesn't count in fantasy.
The Royals just locked up their 21 year-old backstop through 2019. Perez impressed down the stretch with the big club last year, hitting .331 in 148 at-bats.
Ruiz is more or less an inconsistent copy of Molina, but playing half your games in Philly is a clear boost to fantasy value.
I hate Pierzynski, but he finds a way to hit for average every year. At age 35, I hope he finally crashes and burns this year.
Question Marks:
Jesus Montero - Mariners
Geovany Soto - Cubs
Chris Iannetta - Angels
Devin Mesoraco - Reds
Russell Martin - Yankees
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Red Sox
Jonathan Lucroy - Brewers
Former Yankee prospect Jesus Montero will suit up for the M's this year and don the catcher's gear for at least a few games when he's not DHing or doing time at 1B (he's currently not C-eligible in Yahoo leagues, by the way). The bat is supposedly big league ready, but it'll be interesting to see how the time split works between him and Miguel Olivo (who clubbed 19 homers last year, including 10 at hitter-unfriendly Safeco Field).
Which Soto will show up on the north side this year: 2010's disciplined slugger, or 2011's free-swinging mess?
Iannetta gets the change of scenery and the starting job he needed, but will his power proclivity make the trip from Colorado to Anaheim as well?
Dusty Baker isn't committing to his hyped young catcher yet, so it's hard to predict Mesoraco's upside with veteran Ryan Hanigan still in the picture for playing time.
Russell Martin's resurgence with the Yankees in 2011 was certainly unexpected, but can he do it again? I think his only fantasy value would be in AL-only or deep mixed leagues or as a back up to an injury-prone star catcher.
Saltalamacchia posted 4 solid months from May-August, but book-ended them with an abysmal April and September. With slugging prospect Ryan Lavarnway just about ready for prime time, how long can you count on Salty?
I have really nothing to back this up, but I think Lucroy might be ready to take the next step offensively. He'll be 26 in June and as long as he can build and maintain trust from the starting pitchers, he could give you a solid effort in 2012.
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