Obviously my attempt to re-start this blog with tons of analysis fell on its head. I actually did all the statistical analysis - what responsible fantasy player wouldn't? - but I really just didn't have the time to do the writing like I thought I would.
Anyway, I'm in two leagues this year. One is a 15-team mixed league 5x5 roto that I'm commish-ing and the other is the 20-team mixed 6x6 head-to-head I've been in forever. The roto league was a standard snake draft (I picked 13th) and the head-to-head is an auction league. On the doorstep of Opening Day (and after almost a dozen roster moves in each league), I'll run down the dudes that I grabbed at each position with a quick breakdown. My strategy in both leagues was more or less the same: grab a big infield bat early (or for mucho dinero), don't overspend in the OF, don't worry about position scarcity, get starters with high K/9 and low WHIP, don't spend early picks or big bucks on saves.
As you're about to see, I'm big fans of a handful of guys this year, enough so that I specifically targeted them for both of my teams. Let's take a look at who ended up on my squads:
CATCHER
Roto: Jonathan Lucroy (free agent)
H2H: Chris Iannetta ($2)
I actually drafted John Buck with my final pick, but picked up Lucroy because I think he's due for a step up offensively. I didn't want to go $2 on a catcher, but there weren't a lot of palatable options left that late in the draft. I really hope he hits in Anaheim.
FIRST BASE
Roto: Prince Fielder (1st round)
H2H: Chris Parmelee (free agent)
There aren't too many bigger infield bats than Fielder (literally), and he actually slipped to me at 13th overall, so I feel like I caught a break there. I was prepared to take Justin Verlander until Prince fell in my lap. Parmelee is a guy who raked in the minors, had a decent cup of coffee last fall and tore up spring training. With Justin Morneau opting to DH, Parmelee's in line for a lot of AB's to show off his potential.
SECOND BASE
Roto: Mike Aviles (19th round)
H2H: Ian Kinsler ($47)
2B was looking pretty slim by the time I called Aviles's name. I had been loading up on corner infielders and pitchers, so I was a little desperate. I like Aviles's upside, but he's never converted on it in the last 3 years. Price inflation is rampant in a 20-team auction and $47 was probably way too much to spend on the injury-prone Kinsler. If he stays healthy all year, he'll be worth it.
THIRD BASE
Roto: Pablo Sandoval (3rd round)
H2H: Miguel Cabrera ($61)
I love Kung Fu Panda, even if the RBIs aren't there in the anemic Giants lineup. He still hits for acceptable power with great average and OPS numbers. I spent the most money on a player in the auction and it was two days after Cabrera took a bad hop that broke his face. He'll be ready for Opening Day, he'll be 3B-eligible in about a week... no brainer.
SHORTSTOP
Roto: Dee Gordon (6th round)
H2H: Dee Gordon ($22)
I officially reached twice for Dee Gordon. I almost never draft steals because the players who get them for you are either overvalued five-tool guys or one-dimensional players who hurt the rest of your stats. Gordon is probably closer to the latter, but he could lead the league in steals, score 90+ runs and hit in the .280-.290 range. I think I have enough homers, RBIs and OPS to counterbalance Gordon's deficiencies.
OUTFIELD 1
Roto: Shin-Soo Choo (5th round)
H2H: Matt Joyce ($5)
I'm banking on Choo to have a bounce-back season. Last year he was racked with injuries and a DUI arrest. He should be poised to post another 20-20 effort. Spending big bucks on Cabrera and Kinsler didn't leave me much of a budget for outfielders. Matt Joyce has a career .828 OPS, so grabbing him for $5 seems like a great deal as long as he gets regular AB's.
OUTFIELD 2
Roto: Kendrys Morales (7th round)
H2H: Kendrys Morales ($13)
The roto pick on Morales was probably my most egregious reach, but I am 100% sold on his health and potential. The $13 price tag seems like a steal for a guy who hit 34 homers in 2009 and was on pace to hit 30+ in 2010 before the freak leg injury that robbed him of a year-and-a-half. My original plan was to play him at 1B once Cabrera became 3B eligible, but the Parmelee pickup will let Morales bolster my potentially weak outfield (assuming Parmelee hits).
OUTFIELD 3
Roto: Bryan LaHair (16th round)
H2H: Bryan LaHair ($4)
Here's to hoping LaHair isn't the Quad-A player that people think he is. Dude has hit 159 homers in 9 minor league seasons (including 38 last year) and Theo Epstein says he's legit. I'd like to see him get a shot at socking some balls out of Wrigley, though he does have Anthony Rizzo breathing down his neck and he's dealing with a back issue at the end of Spring Training.
UTILITY
Roto: Mark Reynolds (9th round)
H2H: David Ortiz ($18)
I couldn't let 35 homer potential slip away, even if it does come with one of the predictably worst batting averages in the bigs. Reynolds was my only real batting average risk, and I hedged my bet with a later pick (which I'll explain in a bit). Ortiz goes at a discount every year not only due to his inflexibility of position, but also because haters gonna hate. He's not going to put up steroid-era numbers, but I'll take .275-25-95 at this price tag any day.
BENCH 1
Roto: Ike Davis (11th round)
H2H: Alberto Callaspo ($1)
Davis is the afore-mentioned hedge bet. If the Valley Fever diagnosis ends up being not too detrimental, Davis could be an everyday player in my lineup. He was on pace for a .300-28-100 season last year until he was derailed by injury. If he doesn't show that potential, I still have Reynolds. Callaspo was the best 3B option on the board in the late going and I needed somebody to man it until Cabrera could move across the diamond. He should see AB's in the powerful Angels lineup at least until Mark Trumbo proves he can play there every day.
BENCH 2
Roto: Jason Kubel (17th round)
H2H: Jon Jay ($1)
I'm expecting Kubel to take full advantage of his new hitter-friendly environment in Arizona. He could end up being a mid-round steal. Jay is one of the few repeat offenders from last year's 18th place squad: I picked him up as a free agent once Colby Rasmus was traded to the Blue Jays. This year Jay's playing time is in question with the acquisition of Carlos Beltran and the health and effectiveness of Allen Craig. He might get pushed out of a job even though he's a solid contributor with the bat and glove.
BENCH 3
Roto: Eric Thames (free agent)
H2H: Juan Uribe (free agent)
Thames won the competition against Travis Snider for Toronto's starting left field job. He showed a pretty healthy stroke in the latter half of 2011 and could score a fair amount of runs in the potent Blue Jay lineup. Uribe will primarily serve as a backup/insurance policy in case Ian Kinsler gets hurt. That is, assuming he hits as LA's third baseman. He has good power upside, but is coming off the worst year of his career. I originally drafted Daniel Descalso to be a utility infielder, but I don't think he brings anything at the dish. At least Uribe could knock a few balls out.
STARTING PITCHER 1
Roto: Roy Halladay (2nd round)
H2H: Dan Haren ($30)
I had 5 starters identified as difference makers and when Verlander and Clayton Kershaw came off the board back-to-back ahead of me, I figured I'd have to act fast to get one of them. Halladay is such a workhorse that he'll get you the K numbers you want even if his K/9 isn't as high as other elite pitchers. No innings max in the roto league, so I'll take him. Haren was probably the best player on last year's squad and I gladly paid $30 to take him again (though I got him for $20 in 2011).
STARTING PITCHER 2
Roto: Stephen Strasburg (4th round)
H2H: Josh Johnson ($21)
Strasburg was the last of the 5 impact starters on my list and I felt I needed to take him in the 4th round since I didn't think he'd be there 25 picks later. He'll be innings capped at 160, but should be able to post some hellacious numbers while active. Josh Johnson was an unmitigated ace from 2009 until an injury ended his 2011 season. He's looked just as sharp as before so far this spring, so $21 seems reasonable if he gives me 180 innings.
STARTING PITCHER 3
Roto: Brandon Beachy (8th round)
H2H: Brandon Beachy ($15)
I probably reached for Beachy, but I love his strikeout potential. I just hope that the ERA and WHIP he posted last year are typical and not rookie phenom numbers. He hasn't looked very good this spring, but you can never trust spring stats. In a vastly improved NL East (except the Mets, of course) this was a big gamble in both leagues.
STARTING PITCHER 4
Roto: Cory Luebke (12th round)
H2H: Chris Sale ($6)
Luebke impressed last year, posting gaudy ratio numbers but taking it on the chin in wins and losses due to the weak Padres offense. Shockingly, Luebke's road numbers were better than his Petco Park stats, which bodes well. Sale is a converted reliever with nasty strikeout stuff. He may only be good for 160-180 innings this year but should help in the first 2/3 of the head-to-head season.
STARTING PITCHER 5
Roto: Daniel Bard (15th round)
H2H: Johan Santana ($3)
Bard survived the audition to win a spot in the Boston rotation. As a reliever he was primarily a fastball-slider pitcher, so he will need to develop his changeup and right quick if he expects to stick around. Santana hasn't thrown a pitch in a big league game since 2010, but you know his track record before he lost a year to injury. His velocity is down, but his out pitch was always the changeup so as long as the control and deception (and health) is there, he should be well worth $3.
RELIEF PITCHER 1
Roto: Rafael Betancourt (10th round)
H2H: Henry Rodriguez (free agent)
I didn't exactly stick to the script with Betancourt, using a 10th round pick on him. Several other closers had come off the board and I had my eye on him due to his high K/9 and low WHIP rates. In the H2H, I spent all of $2 on two relief pitchers and dropped one - Jesse Crain - when it seemed apparent he wasn't going to win the White Sox closer job from Matt Thornton. Rodriguez has been tearing it up this spring and looks like he might get a couple save looks while Drew Storen is out.
RELIEF PITCHER 2
Roto: Matt Thornton (13th round)
H2H: Glen Perkins ($1)
I drafted Thornton in this league last year and he fully imploded. He finished strong in a set-up role last year and I think that if he wins the closer job (fingers crossed) he'll be fine. Perkins is the set-up man to Matt Capps in Minnesota. That's a question of "when," not "if," Capps loses his gig and Perkins ascends.
RELIEF PITCHER 3
Roto: Jonathan Broxton (free agent)
H2H: Brad Lidge (free agent)
The roto league drafted a couple days before Joakim Soria was declared out for the season. I scooped up the seemingly rejuvenated Broxton who should at least get the first look at the ninth inning on an improved Royals team. Lidge is the other half of the stop-gap solution in Washington until Storen returns. Rodriguez has looked better this spring, but Lidge has the resume and Davey Johnson isn't a maverick manager.
RELIEF PITCHER 4
Roto: Joel Peralta (free agent)
H2H: Joel Peralta (free agent)
This is why you don't pay for saves. Kyle Farnsworth seemed safe in Tampa Bay but had a flare-up of elbow soreness and is expected to miss some time. Of all the characters in the Rays 'pen - including former closers J.P. Howell and Fernando Rodney - Peralta has the best stuff, the best track record and the trust of his manager. If Farnsworth is out for an extended period, Peralta is extremely valuable.
PITCHING DEPTH
Roto: Erik Bedard (18th round)
Roto: Gavin Floyd (20th round)
Roto: Jonathan Sanchez (21st round)
Roto: Greg Holland (free agent)
H2H: Ted Lilly ($2)
H2H: Chris Narveson ($1)
H2H: Dillon Gee ($1)
H2H: Lance Lynn ($1)
Same old story: get those strikeouts, keep the WHIP down, ignore wins and losses. Holland is the only reliever on the list because I don't trust Broxton yet. Lance Lynn is intriguing, though I don't think he'll stick in the rotation once Chris Carpenter returns.
DL STASHES:
Roto: Allen Craig (24th round)
Roto: Mike Carp (free agent)
Roto: Brett Anderson (free agent)
I picked Craig up late because I wasn't sure about Aviles at 2B. He's obviously got better power upside but health is a big factor. Carp ended up in the free agent pool after he separated his shoulder in the Japan series. Could provide some cheap outfield power. Anderson won't be activated until August at least, but looked like an ace-in-the-making before his Tommy John surgery last year.
DRAFTED AND RELEASED:
Roto: Addison Reed (14th round)
Roto: Alfredo Aceves (22nd round)
Roto: Glen Perkins (23rd round)
Roto: John Buck (25th round)
H2H: Josh Reddick ($1)
H2H: Daniel Descalso ($1)
H2H: Jesse Crain ($1)
H2H: John Lannan ($1)
H2H: Felix Doubront ($1)
I dropped Reed when he was ruled out of the White Sox closer race, even though he'll probably end up with that job before the year's out. I dropped Aceves when he lost out on the Boston rotation. Now he's in the mix for saves in Andrew Bailey's absence. That will probably end up being the dumbest move I make this year. Eh, I can probably do dumber. I dumped Reddick for Parmelee, but not before I got a homer out of him in Japan. Lannan got the boot speculatively for Joel Peralta, and shortly thereafter I read that Lannan was sent to Triple-A. That will look like a really smart move, but I was lucky more than than anything.
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