Looking at the matchup situation on Saturday morning, it seemed like an easy call. My opponent this week (last year's champ) had Indians hurler Josh Tomlin and inconsistent Royals pitcher Sean O'Sullivan going on Saturday with the less-than-stellar D-backs righty Barry Enright scheduled for Sunday. My Saturday had Derek Holland against the Yankees, James McDonald against the Reds and Kyle McClellan matched up against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. On Sunday I'll have my aces - Jon Lester and Dan Haren - as well as the surprising Jeff Francis against the anemic Seattle offense. All categories (except saves) are either close or competitive, though I'm leading all of them going into Saturday's games.
Thinking about last week, I decided to play a little closer to the vest: Holland has been very good, McDonald has been lackluster, and McClellan has been lucky but effective. I start Holland on principle, well, two principles actually: he's throwing well and screw the Yankees. I bench McDonald against the red-hot Cincinnati offense. I vacillated on McClellan: he's getting wins, but matched up against Kershaw makes his probability of losing much higher. Ultimately, I benched him.
Holland guts out seven strong innings against the Bombers, only to give up a 2-run homer to Robinson Cano in the eighth. Loss.
McDonald gets lit up by the Reds, giving up nine hits and seven runs (six earned) in 4-1/3 innings. Benching him turned out to be a very smart play, but now I also have to think about whether he's worth keeping on the roster. I'll have Andrew Cashner back in a couple of weeks and I'll likely have to make a roster spot for him.
All Kyle McClellan did was beat the Dodgers, holding them to one run and six hits over seven innings, lowering his ERA to 1.89 on the season. Kershaw did not fare so well, giving up five runs on six hits and five walks. He did strike out five, but had to be lifted after 4-2/3 innings and 111 pitches.
Part of my draft strategy was to rely on young pitchers with upside. That's how I got guys like McClellan, Kyle Drabek, and Phil Coke on this team. Same way I got Mat Latos, C.J. Wilson and Wade Davis on last year's squad. In the early going, I need to learn to trust these guys more. I'm going to get burned every once in a while (see Erik Bedard) but there's really only one way to let these bets pay off: let them play.
So going into Sunday's games, I'm down 4-3 in wins and tied 3-3 in losses. I have pretty safe leads in strikeouts and ERA and a smaller lead in WHIP. I'm in the exact same spot I was in last week, sitting on a loss and a tie with three starters to go. I'm going to let it ride again, though it's not that tough a call to let Lester and Haren throw. I've got some faith in Jeff Francis against the Mariners, though if it were just about any other team, I'd sit him down.
My offense still isn't showing much, though there have been a few bright spots. Aaron Hill lit up the Red Sox the last couple of days, bringing his average up to .241. The OPS is still a dismal .555 and he hasn't left the yard yet, but he does have five steals on the young season, only one short of his career high. Shin-Soo Choo is showing signs of breaking out of his slump, going 10-for-29 (.345) in his last 8 games. Andre Ethier's .386 average is somewhat deceiving, as he's hitting a blistering .500 off righties, but only .190 off lefties. He's a career .245 hitter against southpaws, so I'm expecting an overall dropoff at some point since that .500 against righties is wholly unsustainable.
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