Uh-oh

So yesterday, I said Jon Jay would lose playing time with a fully healthy Cardinals outfield. Scratch that, I guess. Albert Pujols' broken arm means Lance Berkman will slide into first base duty, opening up right field for Jay.

You never want to see a guy get hurt, but the reality of the game is that you have to be in position to take advantage of unfortunate circumstances. It's why you handcuff backups to injury prone stars.

So I have another full-time outfielder for the next 4-6 weeks. Jay's trade value just went up. Maybe it's time for me to make a deal.

The Darren O'Day Era is Over

Darren O'Day leaked his injury status to Facebook today and it turns out that his hip labrum is torn and will require surgery. I promptly took the opportunity to give him his limping papers. But who should replace him on the roster?

Punting saves doesn't mean ignoring opportunities to pick them up, hence why I took a flyer on O'Day in the first place. I just didn't want to spend draft dollars on closers and I'm not going to be heartbroken if I lose saves every week. Let's back up and take a look at the dollar values and April stats of the top ten (eleven, actually) highest paid closers:

Carlos Marmol, $25: 1-1, 5 SV, 15 K, 2.53 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (10.2 IP)
Mariano Rivera, $22: 1-0, 7 SV, 9 K, 2.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP (10.2 IP)
Heath Bell, $21: 1-0, 5 SV, 7 K, 0.90 ERA, 0.90 WHIP (10.0 IP)
Neftali Feliz, $20: 0-0, 5 SV, 6 K, 1.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP (8.1 IP) *injured*
Brian Wilson, $20: 0-1, 6 SV, 8 K, 8.64 ERA, 1.68 WHIP (8.1 IP)
Joakim Soria, $19: 1-0, 5 SV, 5 K, 5.59 ERA, 1.55 WHIP (9.2 IP)
Jonathan Papelbon, $19: 0-0, 5 SV, 11 K, 2.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP (8.1 IP)
John Axford, $18: 0-1, 5 SV, 11 K, 5.79 ERA, 1.61 WHIP (9.1 IP)
Jose Valverde, $18: 2-0, 5 SV, 9 K, 0.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP (9.2 IP)
Francisco Rodriguez, $17: 1-0, 5 SV, 13 K, 2.08 ERA, 1.73 WHIP (8.2 IP)
Matt Thornton, $17: 0-2, 0 SV, 7 K, 6.43 ERA, 2.43 WHIP (7.0 IP) *removed from closer role*

Marmol, Rivera, Bell, Papelbon and Valverde were clearly worth the investment. Feliz was doing well until he got hurt. K-Rod is converting saves and getting out of trouble, but that WHIP suggests that the situation could change at any time. Wilson, Soria and Axford have struggled but kept their jobs. Thornton has been a complete failure.

When you consider that the next two closers on the list are Jose Contreras (injured) and Jonathan Broxton (removed), that means only 5 of the 13 top drafted closers can be considered good investments. Makes me feel a lot better about spending my money on other guys. I just wish those guys were performing.

Anyway, since the available starting pitching in the free agent pool is, dare I say, crappy, I checked through the available list of middle relievers. Slim Jim dropped the Padres' Luke Gregerson, one of MLB's elite bullpen strikeout men. Unfortunately, he's on the waiver wire until Friday. While my waiver priority is only 15 out of 20, I don't want to go back to the back over a middle reliever. If he clears waivers, I'll probably pick him up. However, I could use a player now.

Enter Mark Melancon (pictured above). The former Yankee prospect was traded to Houston in the Lance Berkman deal last summer. So far this season, he's posted a 2-1 record, 0 saves, 10 Ks, 1.54 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 11.2 innings. Good numbers, but the most attractive thing about Melancon is that he's the set-up man behind Brandon Lyon, who has a tenuous grip on the Astros closer job (2-1, 4 SV, 4 K, 4.82 ERA, 1.82 WHIP in 9.1 innings). If Lyon loses the gig, Melancon is likely to take over as closer.

Which would explain why Last Year's Champ sent me two trade offers for him. LYC previously owned him and, ironically, Melancon's only loss this season directly contributed to my 6-5 victory two weeks ago. LYC also owns Brandon Lyon and clearly believes in the handcuff rule. He's not offering me much: one offer is a one-to-one trade for injured Indians starter Mitch Talbot, the other offer is Talbot, Joe Mauer (also injured) and Royals OF Melky Cabrera for Melancon, Jonny Venters and Adam Dunn. I'm not seriously considering either offer, but mostly just because I get an injured player (or two) back no matter what and I already have 3 full DL spots and 2 other injured players taking up spots on my bench.

Clearly LYC wants Melancon, so I'm thinking of making a counter-offer for a healthy player, maybe Angels catcher Hank Conger. But I'll probably keep him and hope he grabs the closer job. 2 or 3 saves in a week can be enough to win in this league, so one closer may be enough to compete.

A Matter of Trust

Looking at the matchup situation on Saturday morning, it seemed like an easy call. My opponent this week (last year's champ) had Indians hurler Josh Tomlin and inconsistent Royals pitcher Sean O'Sullivan going on Saturday with the less-than-stellar D-backs righty Barry Enright scheduled for Sunday. My Saturday had Derek Holland against the Yankees, James McDonald against the Reds and Kyle McClellan matched up against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. On Sunday I'll have my aces - Jon Lester and Dan Haren - as well as the surprising Jeff Francis against the anemic Seattle offense. All categories (except saves) are either close or competitive, though I'm leading all of them going into Saturday's games.

Thinking about last week, I decided to play a little closer to the vest: Holland has been very good, McDonald has been lackluster, and McClellan has been lucky but effective. I start Holland on principle, well, two principles actually: he's throwing well and screw the Yankees. I bench McDonald against the red-hot Cincinnati offense. I vacillated on McClellan: he's getting wins, but matched up against Kershaw makes his probability of losing much higher. Ultimately, I benched him.

Holland guts out seven strong innings against the Bombers, only to give up a 2-run homer to Robinson Cano in the eighth. Loss.

McDonald gets lit up by the Reds, giving up nine hits and seven runs (six earned) in 4-1/3 innings. Benching him turned out to be a very smart play, but now I also have to think about whether he's worth keeping on the roster. I'll have Andrew Cashner back in a couple of weeks and I'll likely have to make a roster spot for him.

All Kyle McClellan did was beat the Dodgers, holding them to one run and six hits over seven innings, lowering his ERA to 1.89 on the season. Kershaw did not fare so well, giving up five runs on six hits and five walks. He did strike out five, but had to be lifted after 4-2/3 innings and 111 pitches.

Part of my draft strategy was to rely on young pitchers with upside. That's how I got guys like McClellan, Kyle Drabek, and Phil Coke on this team. Same way I got Mat Latos, C.J. Wilson and Wade Davis on last year's squad. In the early going, I need to learn to trust these guys more. I'm going to get burned every once in a while (see Erik Bedard) but there's really only one way to let these bets pay off: let them play.

So going into Sunday's games, I'm down 4-3 in wins and tied 3-3 in losses. I have pretty safe leads in strikeouts and ERA and a smaller lead in WHIP. I'm in the exact same spot I was in last week, sitting on a loss and a tie with three starters to go. I'm going to let it ride again, though it's not that tough a call to let Lester and Haren throw. I've got some faith in Jeff Francis against the Mariners, though if it were just about any other team, I'd sit him down.

My offense still isn't showing much, though there have been a few bright spots. Aaron Hill lit up the Red Sox the last couple of days, bringing his average up to .241. The OPS is still a dismal .555 and he hasn't left the yard yet, but he does have five steals on the young season, only one short of his career high. Shin-Soo Choo is showing signs of breaking out of his slump, going 10-for-29 (.345) in his last 8 games. Andre Ethier's .386 average is somewhat deceiving, as he's hitting a blistering .500 off righties, but only .190 off lefties. He's a career .245 hitter against southpaws, so I'm expecting an overall dropoff at some point since that .500 against righties is wholly unsustainable.

4-7-1

This one's a little dated, sorry.

Going into the last day of my Week 1 matchup, I found myself down 5-4 in the wins category and tied at 3 in losses. I had an adequate lead in strikeouts and a commanding advantage in ERA and WHIP. I had three starters slated to go on Sunday afternoon: Derek Holland, James McDonald and Erik Bedard (pictured above.) My opponent had no starters going on Sunday, so I had a decision to make:

1) Bench my starters and settle for a tie and a loss.
2) Take a shot with the best starter I've got and hope to tie in wins.
3) Go for the gusto, start everybody and shoot for the win in wins, even if it means taking a loss in losses.

There's an old saying that you can't win the pennant in April, but you can lose it. There's also an old saying that fortune favors the bold. I decided to start all three guys. No guts, no glory.

Holland went six shutout innings and beat the Orioles, drawing me into a tie in the wins category. McDonald pitched to a no decision against the Rockies. Bedard, unfortunately, got shelled for six runs in four innings of work against the surprising Indians. At the end of the day, I had a tie and a loss just like I did in the morning.

I lose 4-7-1, but it's close. My offense is less than impressive with Dunn out and Choo struggling, but I end up winning RBIs and only losing homers by 1, runs by 5, average by 3 points and OPS by 22 points. Wins and losses are unpredictable, but the skill numbers on my pitching staff (86 Ks, 3.01 ERA and 1.07 WHIP) all look really good.

It's All Downhill From Here

Wednesday night's Ugueth League auction draft was, quite simply, bonkers. With 20 teams, price inflation is an expected part of the game. There's only so much elite talent to go around and if you want the edge, you've got to pay for it. In last year's draft, 4 players commanded salaries of $52 or more: Albert Pujols ($57), Hanley Ramirez ($55) Ryan Braun ($52) and Ryan Howard ($52). Each team gets $260 to spend, so dropping 20% or more of your budget on one player is a generally risky move. Improbably, in the 2010 draft, Pujols and HanRam were both drafted by the same team; they finished 7th.

In the 2011 draft, 10 players earned a $52 dollar price tag or higher, and two of those eclipsed the $60 barrier:
Troy Tulowitzki - $61
Carlos Gonzalez - $60
Albert Pujols - $58
Robinson Cano - $56
Carl Crawford - $56
Alex Rodriguez - $54
Adrian Gonzalez - $54
Hanley Ramirez - $54
Josh Hamilton - $52
Evan Longoria - $52

I expected Tulo and HanRam to command a lot of bucks considering the thin talent pool at shortstop, but I never would have guessed that anyone would have dropped $61. I went into this draft with the intention of not spending more than $40 on any one player, but the price tags on these top-tier players made it difficult for me to stick to my guns.

Part of the inflation probably had to do with the league's new rules on transactions. We've capped pickups at 4 per week in order to keep people from streaming pitchers. It's already hard to work that strategy in a 20 team league, but it definitely favored people with consistent internet access. And no kids. And no real life. Naturally, I was against the rule change. As another deterrent, rosters were expanded from 23 to 25 players, which means the available talent pool got a little shallower. Teams now need to draft what they need instead of relying on free agents and waiver wire.

My underlying goal was to model my behavior on last year's champ, and I think I did a pretty good job. I think we had similar strategies (don't overspend, focus on infielders, relatively low pitching budget) though he's always been a collector of closers and I abhor spending money for saves. We ended up with similar looking teams and throughout the draft we were within $10-15 of each other. He spent $64 on pitching, I spent $69. His highest paid player is Ryan Howard at $42, mine is Adam Dunn at $43. Both infields are solid, though he's got a hole at third base (Placido Polanco) and I've got a hole at short (Jhonny Peralta/J.J. Hardy). We also both took shots on injured pitchers (Brandon Webb for me, Johan Santana for him). It'll be really funny when we both finish in the middle of the pack.

One of the team owners didn't even bother to show up, so Yahoo was auto-bidding on his behalf. Since the Yahoo draft values didn't take into account the inflation of our 20-team league, he ended up with an injured Chase Utley for $18 (possibly a steal, if he gets on the field sometime in the next two months), a questionable Carlos Beltran for $6 and a bunch of $1 and $2 guys to fill out the roster. Yahoo only spent $78 of his $260 budget. The new roster size and transaction limit rules are going to make it really hard for him to build a competitive squad. The lesson: DON'T MISS YOUR DRAFT!

I made a couple of tactical errors over the course of the draft. After I grabbed Shin-Soo Choo for $38 and Dunn, I got Andre Ethier at $29. I fully intended to not spend more than $15 on my second outfielder, but I got caught up in an early bidding war. I would've rather spent that money on Buster Posey (who went for $32), Victor Martinez ($28) or even a second tier catcher like Carlos Santana ($19), Geovany Soto ($12) or Jorge Posada ($12).

I also overspent on a couple of low-dollar guys. I got into another bidding war over Kila Ka'aihue, who got nominated early (50th overall) and I was pretty high on as a sleeper this year. I certainly didn't want to spend $8 on him though. I also nominated Adam LaRoche about halfway through in an attempt to get one of the richer teams to spend their money, but I ended up "winning" him for $6. He and Ka'aihue will end up splitting time at my utility spot.

At the end of the draft, I still had $5 left which basically means that I messed up in the early part of the draft. I wanted to have some money left toward the end of the draft for some of the sleeper/upside pitchers I was going to need to take, but I didn't anticipate the wild spending spree in the early part of the draft and how it would impact the endgame.

I drank 7 beers during the draft, 6 of them were Pyramid Apricot Ales. Those little bastards are delicious.

Q: How Do You Make God Laugh?

A: Make a plan.

Like I said in the intro, last year I finished second in the Ugueth League (which I'll abbreviate as "UL" from here on out because I'm tired of seeing the red squiggle under Ugueth.) Before I go into what strategy got me there last year and how I intend to match or better last year's results, let's delve into the innards of the UL.

The Ugueth What U Pay For League is composed of 20 teams that draft the following roster positions through an auction draft ($260 budget per team): Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, three Outfielders, one Utility player, three Starting Pitchers, two Relief Pitchers, three additional Pitchers, six bench players (either batters or pitchers), and up to four players on the Disabled List.

We play head-to-head weekly with a 6x6 scoring category format. Batting categories are Runs, Home Runs, Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases, Batting Average and On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) Percentage. Pitching categories are Wins, Losses, Saves, Strikeouts, Earned Run Average (ERA) and Walks + Hits/Innings Pitched (WHIP.)

Teams may make daily transactions and there are no limits on the number of transactions a team may make over the course of the season (the median number of transactions made by a team last year was 40, though the league champ made a whopping 324 transactions. I made 86.) There are no games or innings pitched limits, though each team must reach a minimum of 25 innings pitched per week, ostensibly to keep teams from activating only relievers so they can take the Losses, Saves, ERA and WHIP categories without much investment.

At the beginning of the 2010 season, I decided to punt steals and saves. If this were a roto league I'd be signing my own death warrant, but in head-to-head where each category counted for a win or loss, I was basically saying that I'd be content with a potential for 10 wins and 2 losses per week instead of 12 and 0. Overly optimistic, yes, but let's examine the logic behind the idea.

Steals end up being a very expensive commodity, but the players who provide the the biggest returns in the SB column tend to be very one-dimensional. Let's take the player who led MLB in steals in 2009, Jacoby Ellsbury. His 70 steals drove his auction price up to $34, and indeed only 30 players were drafted at a higher price, a testament to how Ellsbury could single-handedly deliver a win every week. In addition to the steals, he scored 94 runs and hit a respectable .301, but without much power (8 homers and .770 OPS) and a weak 60 RBIs.

Let's not even consider his injury-riddled 2010 campaign, but focus on the 2009 numbers. A player like Ellsbury (substitute Juan Pierre, Michael Bourn, Rajai Davis, or even Ichiro) is unmatched in the steals category, and is generally helpful in runs scored. However, batting average is usually hit or miss (Ichiro = .315, Chone Figgins = .259, both had 42 steals in 2010) and they are usually detrimental in the three power categories, with the notable exceptions of players like Carl Crawford ($39) and Hanley Ramirez. ($55)

So is it worth it to spend $34 on Ellsbury, $30 on Ichiro, $25 on B.J. Upton, $23 on Figgins, $18 on Nyjer Morgan, $17 on Bourn, or even $11 on Davis when you're only paying for one or two categories? Let's look at how helpful base stealers are in the runs category. Of the top 25 in SBs in 2010, the average number of runs scored is 82.8. By contrast, the top 25 home run hitters scored an average of 94.64 runs while contributing to a significantly greater degree in RBIs and OPS. So a non-thrilling power hitter like Nick Swisher - drafted for just $12 - scored 91 runs in 2010, higher than the speedsters' average. He also hit 29 homers and drove in 89, while posting a .288 batting average with an .870 OPS. Compare those to Nyjer Morgan's 60 runs, 0 homers, 24 RBIs, .253 average and .633 OPS. Are those numbers plus 34 steals (compared to Swisher's 1) worth $6 more on draft day?

The scoring categories in the UL favor power hitters and marginalize steals, yet these guys routinely go for higher dollar values than they end up being worth. There are always exceptions, of course: Juan Pierre was drafted at $3 and returned 68 steals. Coco Crisp went undrafted because of a broken finger and didn't see regular game action until late June, but I picked him up from the free agent pool for free and he got me 32 steals in the second half of the season. On the whole, however, I don't see a reason to spend money on steals unless they come attached to other categories. Due to the nature of head-to-head, a couple of 15-20 steal players can be more beneficial in a specific week than a player in the Ellsbury/Pierre mold due to matchups. Plus, there just aren't enough of those guys out there for one team to dominate the category in a 20-team league.

I'll cover saves tomorrow, as that's a little more complex.