Superstition

^Kinda surprised he can lift his arm this high.

Brandon Webb felt discomfort in his surgically repaired right shoulder and was shut down in his rehab assignment. In an interview with the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, when asked if he would be able to come back Webb said "How many times can you do it? Who knows? I have no idea." One gets the impression that Webb is done for this season and probably for the rest of his career.

You can't fault a guy for taking a chance on Webb. After all, he did spend six seasons dominating hitters with a virtually unhittable sinker. He never had breathtaking velocity, but the movement on that sinker fooled enough hitters that he was able to post 1,065 strikeouts in a little over 1,300 innings. Even when they made contact, Webb was able to minimize the damage: he induced over 64% of opposing batters into ground balls from 2003-2008, leading all major league pitchers over that span.

So it's reasonable to think that Webb could make a comeback and regain some of his previous form. Maybe he wouldn't be the dominating pitcher he once was, but if he could continue to get grounders and keep the ball in the yard (only Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw have given up fewer HR/9 since 2003) he'd be a valuable asset to a winning team in Texas. And medical science has progressed to the point where a pitcher's arm can be rebuilt almost to better condition than before an injury, so why not spend $2 on Brandon Webb on draft day?

As it turns out, Webb's shoulder is not okay even after two years on the sidelines recuperating from surgery. He's been knocked around in his few rehab starts at the Single- and Double-A levels. Now, he's shut down indefinitely with soreness in his shoulder and we may have seen the last of the best sinkerball pitcher of the last 20 years.

I've been carrying Brandon Webb on my DL since opening day, hoping that he'd make a return to the bigs and help my virtual ball club. But I'm starting to think that maybe Webb's struggles - and the delusional thought process that led me to stick with him and other stiffs on my squad - are what has been keeping my team near the cellar all season. Maybe Webb's injury caused Adam Dunn's burst appendix, Shin-Soo Choo's broken hand, Erik Bedard's strained knee. Maybe I'm running an infirmary and not a fantasy baseball team. It sounds crazy and it is, but other than bad luck and coincidence, I can only believe that it's either Webb's fault or the entire universe is out to get me.

So, happy trails Brandon Webb. I really do hope that you're able to come back and be an effective major league pitcher again. But more so, I hope somebody else in this league picks you up and stashes you away so they can inherit your curse.

Who Didn't See This Coming?

NEWS FLASH: Erik Bedard is injured.

For the third straight season, Erik Bedard makes 15 starts and then heads to the disabled list. In fairness, Bedard's 2008 and 2009 campaigns had a short DL break *during* his 15 starts, only to be capped with a season-ending arm injury. The 2011 Bedard made 15 straight starts, looking downright dominant for the last 11. And the injury that's landed him back on the DL is a sprained left knee, which is a relief considering that this is a guy who missed all of last season recovering from shoulder surgery.

Still, Bedard's injury leaves me in a really tough spot. Jon Lester and Dan Haren continue to anchor my starting pitching, but the situation looks pretty bleak past those guys. Josh Collmenter has gotten tagged for 5+ earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts as it appears the league has caught up with the tomahawk-throwing righty. Kyle McClellan has been inconsistent since his return from the DL, allowing 27 baserunners in 17.1 innings over three starts. Derek Holland continues to be ineffective at home, sporting a 5.89 ERA in Arlington, over 2 runs higher than his road mark. Jeff Francis has the opposite problem, posting a 3.41 ERA at home and a 6.75 away from Kauffman Stadium. Jesse Litsch is still on the DL and may not have a spot in the rotation open for him upon his return.

The Phil Coke era is over, by the way. Jim Leyland pulled the reliever-turned-starter from the rotation and put him back in the bullpen to be used as a lefty specialist. Coke showed some potential but ultimately couldn't string together enough consistent outings to keep his job, especially after a late May DL stint. He was replaced by Charlie Furbush, who I'm sure was never made fun of as a kid.

So I have 6 starting pitchers, 2 of whom cannot be used half the time due to their home road splits and 2 more that are showing signs of decline. Starting pitching is an incredibly rare and valuable commodity in a 20-team league, so naturally there are no legitimate options in the free agent pool. The Marlins just recalled Brad Hand to pitch today against the Rangers, which is not exactly a prime fantasy matchup for a dude with exactly 3 big league starts. Greg Reynolds will take the ball for the Rockies today against the Royals, but this will be his only start and then he'll be sent back to Colorado Springs. The Pirates are going to give Brad Lincoln a look today against the Nats; he's been pitching very well at AAA Indianapolis, but this is likely to be a spot start as well and he'll be sent back after the game.

My team has no chance of competing if I'm going to be heavily relying on spot start call-ups to give me innings. But who am I kidding? My team has no chance to compete anyway.

What They Giveth, They Taketh Away

I wouldn't say I was gloating about Pujols' injury, just looking for the silver lining. To that end, i don't think I deserved any karmic retribution by way of Shin-Soo Choo getting a broken thumb courtesy of a Jonathan Sanchez fastball. Still, it's bothersome that this injury would befall Choo just as he was starting to come around at the plate and giving me some hope of climbing up the standings.

On the bright side, this clears up my clogged outfield problem for the next six weeks, as I'll only have Ethier, Jay, Denorfia, McLouth and Revere to rotate through the lineup. I really don't know who I'm going to get to replace Choo on the roster. There aren't many intriguing position players available in free agency. Brent Lillibridge is out there, but he doesn't get enough playing time to be useful. I could also pick up the injured Jed Lowrie and stash him away on the DL, but there's no timetable on when he'll return to big league action.

So this is a huge blow to my team, but I'm trying not to let it get me down. I mean, how much worse can it get?

Uh-oh

So yesterday, I said Jon Jay would lose playing time with a fully healthy Cardinals outfield. Scratch that, I guess. Albert Pujols' broken arm means Lance Berkman will slide into first base duty, opening up right field for Jay.

You never want to see a guy get hurt, but the reality of the game is that you have to be in position to take advantage of unfortunate circumstances. It's why you handcuff backups to injury prone stars.

So I have another full-time outfielder for the next 4-6 weeks. Jay's trade value just went up. Maybe it's time for me to make a deal.

Second Base or Trauma Ward?

Chase Utley's patellar tendinitis is ruling the MLB newswire right now as a multitude of nerds try to figure out where their second base production is going to come from this year. The group is very top-heavy talent-wise and those few players have significant injury histories. Utley broke his hand in 2007, had hip surgery in 2008 and sprained his thumb in 2010. Dustin Pedroia missed over half of the 2010 season with a broken foot. Brian Roberts dislocated his elbow in 2005, injured his groin in 2006, missed 91 games with an abdominal strain in 2010 and is battling back spasms this year. What hasn't broken down on Ian Kinsler? Answer: not his thumb (2006), his foot (2007), his ankle (2010) or his groin (2008 and 2010).

Second basemen are a high-risk group and command a lot of auction dollars due to the low talent supply. The top-ten highest paid 2Bs went for an average of $31 with Utley pulling an obscene $49. You can never predict injuries (unless they occur before draft day), so each of my projections assumes a full, healthy major league season. You just can't take it to the bank with this group, though.

6 categories:
Ian Kinsler - $34
Chase Utley - $49
I had Utley on top of this board where he belongs, but until someone can definitively tell me that he can move side-to-side (kinda important for a 2B) I'm avoiding him. A healthy Ian Kinsler can help you win all six categories week in and week out.

5 categories:
Robinson Cano - $31
Dustin Pedroia - $31
Cano is as close to a sure thing as there is in baseball, and with all the injury upheaval at this position, I'd imagine whoever takes him is going to pay for that consistency. Pedroia is coming off a lost season, but I'm expecting him to contribute in everything but homers (his career max is 17.)

4 categories:
Brandon Phillips - $31
Dan Uggla - $23
Rickie Weeks - $12
Ben Zobrist - $32
Brian Roberts - $27
Brandon Phillips will get you numbers, but his historically low walk rate is a detriment in the OPS column. Uggla is a steals punter's dream and I'm going to be giving him a hard look if he doesn't command too high a price. Rickie Weeks is back and won't go for $12 again. Ben Zobrist is likely to bounce around between first, second and right field; I'd feel more comfortable investing if he had a steady job. If other owners are leery of Brian Roberts, they're right to be, but he may end up being the steal of the draft.

3 categories:
None.
Again, a steep talent drop-off that raises the prices for the top-tier guys.

2 categories:
Aaron Hill - $28
Ryan Raburn - undrafted
Kelly Johnson - $3
Martin Prado - $7
Howie Kendrick - $14
Ryan Theriot - $7
Hill should continue to put up power numbers and he'll post a better batting average than last year's .205. Raburn qualifies at 2B but he'll be playing left field for the Tigers this year and has shown nothing but promise in limited playing time so far. I left a gaping hole at second in last year's draft, but traded for Kelly Johnson in April; he won't put up last year's numbers, but he should help in runs and OPS. Prado should by all rights be playing third base, but Chipper Jones refuses to go away; he'll shift to LF instead. I think Howie Kendrick is useless and I'm going to throw his name out early as a money suck. Ryan Theriot, the Cardinals shortstop, has some speed and is capable of hitting for a respectable average.

1 category:
Tsuyoshi Nishioka - undrafted
Mike Aviles - $1
Melvin Mora - $1
Juan Uribe - $1
Marco Scutaro - $14
Chone Figgins - $23
Omar Infante - undrafted
Placido Polanco - $6
Maicer Izturis - $4
Bill Hall - undrafted
Orlando Hudson - $4
Freddy Sanchez - $6
Sean Rodriguez - undrafted
Luis Castillo - $1
Eric Young Jr. - undrafted
I am very high on Nishioka and probably not for any good reasons. He's still young, hit for high average in Japan and stole a fair number of bases. He could be an Ichiro-mold infielder, or he could be completely inconsequential. Most years, I leave that gamble to someone else, but this year I might take a chance. This could be Mike Aviles' real breakout year (third time's a charm.) Mora and Uribe should provide some pop. If Marco Scutaro can fend off Jed Lowrie all season, he could score a lot of runs in that Sox lineup. I will never draft Chone Figgins again; the definition of a one-dimensional player. Does anyone really believe that Omar Infante was an All-Star last year? Polanco could shift back over to second if Utley misses any time. Bill Hall might hit 20 bombs in Houston, but won't be good for much else. Rodriguez, Castillo and Young all need to produce this spring to win a job or else they're worthless.

0 categories (but with upside):
Gordon Beckham - $15
Neil Walker - undrafted
Reid Brignac - undrafted
Skip Schumaker - $4
Mark Ellis - $1
Danny Espinosa - undrafted
Clint Barmes - $9
Carlos Guillen - $1
Beckham doesn't do it for me: he'll post average, well-rounded numbers, but those don't win head-to-head leagues. Walker and Brignac are a lot of people's sophomore breakout picks, but I won't overpay for them. Mark Ellis is so underrated, but he still never produces to prove anybody wrong. Espinosa could be a ROY candidate if he can hit over .250. Games played over/under on Carlos Guillen: 87. Place your bets. FYI: the under would've won the past two seasons.

The Mets second base competition between Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejeda and Rule 5 pick Brad Emaus will likely produce no one really capable of helping the team as a starter. Castillo could provide some bench speed.

The Rockies situation is a little more promising. Jose Lopez (acquired from Seattle) has a decent power bat and could prosper at Coors Field. Eric Young Jr. is a speedster who could do some serious damage if he could hit for average like his dad. Jonathan Herrera has impressed with the bat this spring, but would likely be a backup if he makes the squad at all. The 25 year-old Chris Nelson is an intriguing power prospect but probably won't make the roster.

In Seattle, Dustin Ackley - the second overall pick in the 2009 draft after Stephen Strasburg - was moved by the Mariners brass to second base. He primarily played the outfield and first base at North Carolina. He's a high contact, high average hitter with some speed potential. Probably won't be an impact player this season if he makes the team, but might be someone to consider a couple years down the road.

Joe Maddon has a lot of moving parts in his defense, the most prominent of which is Ben Zobrist. Zobrist could play first, second, or right field, but the Rays have serviceable options in Dan Johnson, Sean Rodriguez and Matt Joyce, respectively. Zobrist had a huge year in 2009 but a steep fall off in 2010 as he was being moved all around the field. I'd feel much more confident in him if he had a steady job, even if it is at the expense of one of the three other guys.