Chase Utley's patellar tendinitis is ruling the MLB newswire right now as a multitude of nerds try to figure out where their second base production is going to come from this year. The group is very top-heavy talent-wise and those few players have significant injury histories. Utley broke his hand in 2007, had hip surgery in 2008 and sprained his thumb in 2010. Dustin Pedroia missed over half of the 2010 season with a broken foot. Brian Roberts dislocated his elbow in 2005, injured his groin in 2006, missed 91 games with an abdominal strain in 2010 and is battling back spasms this year. What hasn't broken down on Ian Kinsler? Answer: not his thumb (2006), his foot (2007), his ankle (2010) or his groin (2008 and 2010).
Second basemen are a high-risk group and command a lot of auction dollars due to the low talent supply. The top-ten highest paid 2Bs went for an average of $31 with Utley pulling an obscene $49. You can never predict injuries (unless they occur before draft day), so each of my projections assumes a full, healthy major league season. You just can't take it to the bank with this group, though.
6 categories:
Ian Kinsler - $34
Chase Utley - $49
I had Utley on top of this board where he belongs, but until someone can definitively tell me that he can move side-to-side (kinda important for a 2B) I'm avoiding him. A healthy Ian Kinsler can help you win all six categories week in and week out.
5 categories:
Robinson Cano - $31
Dustin Pedroia - $31
Cano is as close to a sure thing as there is in baseball, and with all the injury upheaval at this position, I'd imagine whoever takes him is going to pay for that consistency. Pedroia is coming off a lost season, but I'm expecting him to contribute in everything but homers (his career max is 17.)
4 categories:
Brandon Phillips - $31
Dan Uggla - $23
Rickie Weeks - $12
Ben Zobrist - $32
Brian Roberts - $27
Brandon Phillips will get you numbers, but his historically low walk rate is a detriment in the OPS column. Uggla is a steals punter's dream and I'm going to be giving him a hard look if he doesn't command too high a price. Rickie Weeks is back and won't go for $12 again. Ben Zobrist is likely to bounce around between first, second and right field; I'd feel more comfortable investing if he had a steady job. If other owners are leery of Brian Roberts, they're right to be, but he may end up being the steal of the draft.
3 categories:
None.
Again, a steep talent drop-off that raises the prices for the top-tier guys.
2 categories:
Aaron Hill - $28
Ryan Raburn - undrafted
Kelly Johnson - $3
Martin Prado - $7
Howie Kendrick - $14
Ryan Theriot - $7
Hill should continue to put up power numbers and he'll post a better batting average than last year's .205. Raburn qualifies at 2B but he'll be playing left field for the Tigers this year and has shown nothing but promise in limited playing time so far. I left a gaping hole at second in last year's draft, but traded for Kelly Johnson in April; he won't put up last year's numbers, but he should help in runs and OPS. Prado should by all rights be playing third base, but Chipper Jones refuses to go away; he'll shift to LF instead. I think Howie Kendrick is useless and I'm going to throw his name out early as a money suck. Ryan Theriot, the Cardinals shortstop, has some speed and is capable of hitting for a respectable average.
1 category:
Tsuyoshi Nishioka - undrafted
Mike Aviles - $1
Melvin Mora - $1
Juan Uribe - $1
Marco Scutaro - $14
Chone Figgins - $23
Omar Infante - undrafted
Placido Polanco - $6
Maicer Izturis - $4
Bill Hall - undrafted
Orlando Hudson - $4
Freddy Sanchez - $6
Sean Rodriguez - undrafted
Luis Castillo - $1
Eric Young Jr. - undrafted
I am very high on Nishioka and probably not for any good reasons. He's still young, hit for high average in Japan and stole a fair number of bases. He could be an Ichiro-mold infielder, or he could be completely inconsequential. Most years, I leave that gamble to someone else, but this year I might take a chance. This could be Mike Aviles' real breakout year (third time's a charm.) Mora and Uribe should provide some pop. If Marco Scutaro can fend off Jed Lowrie all season, he could score a lot of runs in that Sox lineup. I will never draft Chone Figgins again; the definition of a one-dimensional player. Does anyone really believe that Omar Infante was an All-Star last year? Polanco could shift back over to second if Utley misses any time. Bill Hall might hit 20 bombs in Houston, but won't be good for much else. Rodriguez, Castillo and Young all need to produce this spring to win a job or else they're worthless.
0 categories (but with upside):
Gordon Beckham - $15
Neil Walker - undrafted
Reid Brignac - undrafted
Skip Schumaker - $4
Mark Ellis - $1
Danny Espinosa - undrafted
Clint Barmes - $9
Carlos Guillen - $1
Beckham doesn't do it for me: he'll post average, well-rounded numbers, but those don't win head-to-head leagues. Walker and Brignac are a lot of people's sophomore breakout picks, but I won't overpay for them. Mark Ellis is so underrated, but he still never produces to prove anybody wrong. Espinosa could be a ROY candidate if he can hit over .250. Games played over/under on Carlos Guillen: 87. Place your bets. FYI: the under would've won the past two seasons.
The Mets second base competition between Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejeda and Rule 5 pick Brad Emaus will likely produce no one really capable of helping the team as a starter. Castillo could provide some bench speed.
The Rockies situation is a little more promising. Jose Lopez (acquired from Seattle) has a decent power bat and could prosper at Coors Field. Eric Young Jr. is a speedster who could do some serious damage if he could hit for average like his dad. Jonathan Herrera has impressed with the bat this spring, but would likely be a backup if he makes the squad at all. The 25 year-old Chris Nelson is an intriguing power prospect but probably won't make the roster.
In Seattle, Dustin Ackley - the second overall pick in the 2009 draft after Stephen Strasburg - was moved by the Mariners brass to second base. He primarily played the outfield and first base at North Carolina. He's a high contact, high average hitter with some speed potential. Probably won't be an impact player this season if he makes the team, but might be someone to consider a couple years down the road.
Joe Maddon has a lot of moving parts in his defense, the most prominent of which is Ben Zobrist. Zobrist could play first, second, or right field, but the Rays have serviceable options in Dan Johnson, Sean Rodriguez and Matt Joyce, respectively. Zobrist had a huge year in 2009 but a steep fall off in 2010 as he was being moved all around the field. I'd feel much more confident in him if he had a steady job, even if it is at the expense of one of the three other guys.
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