Thursday, March 3, 2011

Catcher: the Tight End of Fantasy Baseball




When I started playing Little League, I was pretty much completely unathletic. As such, I was a part-timer in right field, which is where you stick the fat kid who sucks. The fat kid who's smart about the game learns to be a catcher, which is what I decided I wanted to do after one season of being bored in the outfield.

I did what any over-eager, book-smart Gary Carter-worshipping kid would do when trying to get better at sports: I went to the library. Found a couple instructional books on baseball and taught myself the fundamentals of catching. Sure enough, I got the starting catching job on my team the next year. I caught for every team I played on for the next 5 years, so I have a special place in my heart for those who don "the tools of ignorance."

Unfortunately, in fantasy baseball catchers are a liability and are more much more likely to hurt your squad than help it. Last year I spent a lot of my budget early on Victor Martinez because, like most years, offensive talent is thin at catcher. You can usually find some upside guys at shortstop or second base once the studs are gone, but big league managers tend to like defensive catchers who work well with a pitching staff, even if they can't hit a lick. Probably because a lot of managers are former catchers. Can you name the big league skippers who played catcher? Answer at the bottom.

Anyway, here are my catching tiers for the 2011 season. I looked at each player's stats from the past 3 seasons (when available) and made a rough projection based on average production, increasing or declining trend line, expected playing time, and injury risk. I then took the top 20 catchers as rated by Yahoo (because the UL is a 20 team league) and came up with an average stat line. Tiers are determined based on how many categories each player rates above average. I've also included what each player was drafted for in the 2010 auction as a reference.

NOTE: This is the only catcher draft tier you will see this year that does not have Joe Mauer at the top. I will explain when we get there.

6 categories:
None. Catchers on the whole do not steal enough bases to matter in a head-to-head league and most of them don't run at all.

5 categories:
Victor Martinez - $27
Buster Posey - $1 (I think he'll go for a little more this year...)
Brian McCann - $27
Geovany Soto - $9
Jorge Posada - $13
Batting average is the key stat with this group as I have them all projected to hit .270 or better. Martinez and Posada are both primarily playing DH this year, which will either be a blessing or a curse: catchers are involved in the game at all times, so there may be a drop-off in mental focus that may lead to a drop-off in production as they adjust to the new role. Buster Posey had a great rookie season, but there's always the worry of a sophomore slump. McCann is a reliable quantity; Soto, maybe not so much, but I expect a good season from him.

4 categories:
Joe Mauer - $38
Mike Napoli - $9
Carlos Santana - undrafted
Healthy or not, I really don't see Mauer's home run numbers coming anywhere near the 28 he slugged in 2009. Also, consider that he only hit 1 dinger for the home fans at Target Field last year. Still, he'll be a beast in the other 4 categories as long as his knees hold up. Napoli should benefit big-time in the power department from his new digs in Arlington. Santana's a wild card: he's got the potential, but he didn't get enough ABs in 2010 to shake off any doubts.

3 categories:
Kurt Suzuki - $14
Miguel Montero - $9
Suzuki is one of the most underrated hitters at this position simply because of the team around him. I still think he'll amass enough runs, homers and RBIs to contribute. Montero suffered through an injury-riddled 2010, but I'm expecting a bounceback.

2 categories:
None.
Scary. That means the ten guys up there are gonna get paid with this steep of a talent dropoff.

1 category:
Matt Wieters - $19
John Jaso - undrafted
John Buck - undrafted
Chris Iannetta - $1
J.P. Arencibia - undrafted
Russell Martin - $6
A.J. Pierzynski - $5
Yadier Molina - $1
Chris Snyder - undrafted
I am not at all sold on Matt Wieters. This guy has been declared a "can't miss" prospect three years in a row now, and he's missed twice. I usually like to pick up the "can't miss" rookie in his second year after he failed to meet expectations, but I'm not gambling that high on Wieters, no way. John Jaso is going to leadoff, so if you're in a bind for runs, he's an interesting option. I'd love to see Iannetta and Arencibia power their way through a season, but the batting averages on those guys will probably be brutal.

0 categories (but with upside):
Carlos Ruiz - $1
Miguel Olivo - $2
Rod Barajas - $1
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - undrafted
Alex Avila - $1
Nick Hundley - undrafted
Ruiz, Olivo and Barajas are all known quantities who won't hurt you too bad if you lose a better player to injury. Of the three, I'd probably prefer Ruiz since he's the only one playing in a hitter's park. I unfortunately put the buck down on Avila last year toward the end, but this year I think he's definitely worth checking out. Salty's really intriguing: he'll be the starter for the Red Sox this year and he's shown that he can swing the bat, but all anybody can talk about is whether or not he's conquered the yips. All signs this spring point to "yes," but mental issues aren't as easy to diagnose and treat as hamstrings.

I'm curious how the catching situation will work out in the Bronx. They brought in Russell Martin, but he's not 100% yet. Francisco Cervelli was a capable replacement when Posada was hurt last year. Jesus Montero can mash, but he might not be skilled enough defensively for Joe Girardi's liking. This will be resolved by our draft date, but if I had to draft tomorrow I'd consider tossing out $1 on Montero just because the position is so thin.

What is Pittsburgh going to do with Ryan Doumit? They couldn't move his $5 million salary in the offseason, so now he's stuck in a backup role between catcher and right field. He's a much better offensive option than Chris Snyder, but Snyder's a veteran who can deftly handle a pitching staff.

It saddens me that Pudge Rodriguez is still playing baseball. He's about 4 years past his usefulness and it's starting to get to the point where hanging on is tarnishing his legacy. He should be in the conversation as the greatest catcher to ever play in the majors with Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra and Roy Campanella. WHo knows, maybe he can become a manager when he finally hangs 'em up.

Former catchers with current MLB managing gigs are: Bruce Bochy*, Bob Geren, Joe Girardi*, Fredi Gonzalez, Jim Leyland*, Joe Maddon, Mike Scioscia*, Eric Wedge and Ned Yost.

*Won a World Series as a skipper. See, catchers are smarter than you.

1 comment:

  1. one of these days, pudge will finally make the leap to 2nd base. i remember that in the 2000 offseason, he spent a bunch of time at bucky dent's 2nd base camp, so he should be good to go by now.

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