In a 2008 Vanity Fair piece, Rotisserie Baseball creator Daniel Okrent told the tale of the very first roto auction draft in 1980:
What I remember most about that draft was that Mike Schmidt was the first player picked, and he went for $26. I also remember that one of our members, Rob Fleder of the Fleder Mice, drafted the $100 outfield, of Bobby Bonds, Ron LeFlore and Dave Kingman—the three of them together cost $100.
It's a cautionary tale, of course, because the $26 Mike Schmidt had more RBIs in 1980 than the entirety of the $100 outfield. I've tended to believe that numbers are numbers and as long as you reach certain levels it doesn't really matter what position generates them. Maybe that's why I put together the $97 outfield last year.
Matt Holliday, $40: .312 BA, 28 HR, 103 RBI, 95 R, 9 SB, .922 OPS
Jason Bay, $32: .259 BA, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 48 R, 10 SB, .749 OPS
Nelson Cruz, a steal at $25: .318 BA, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 60 R, 17 SB, .950 OPS
Jason Bay's inability to hit home runs, coupled with Nelson Cruz's superhuman ability to injure his hamstrings pretty much doomed the $97 outfield. Luckily, I traded Bay after a month for Clayton Kershaw and when Cruz was healthy he was an absolute beast.
However, I could've spent $3 on these three undrafted outfielders and pulled similar numbers:
Jose Bautista: .260 BA, 54 HR, 124 RBI, 109 R, 9 SB, .995 OPS
Angel Pagan: .290 BA, 11 HR, 69 RBI, 80 R, 37 SB, .765 OPS
Mike Stanton: .259 BA, 22 HR, 59 RBI, 45 R, 5 SB, .833 OPS
I'd take a hit on batting average and a little bit on OPS, but these three out produced in all the counting categories. And for $94 less. Of course there's not going to be an undrafted Jose Bautista every year, but the point is, there is always solid handful of free agent/waiver wire outfielders who can help your team, so it's best not to overspend on the big name guys.
Still, there's bountiful power and speed in the outfield, so it won't kill you to grab a guy like Carlos Gonzalez. Just don't buy three of them.
A change in how the tiers are calculated - first I grouped the top 20, second 20 and third 20 outfielders according to Yahoo rankings. I came up with the average production line for each of those groups:
1-20: .290 BA, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 90 R, 25 SB, .850 OPS
21-40: .275 BA, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 85 R, 20 SB, .800 OPS
41-60: .270 BA, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 75 R, 15 SB, .775 OPS
I then did the same projections based on three-year performance, etc. and assigned 3 points if they matched or exceeded top 20 stats, 2 points if they exceeded second 20 stats and 1 point if they exceeded third 20 stats. Confused? Great. Players listed by number of points (along with 2010 auction value).
18 points (best possible score):
Carlos Gonzalez - $17
The definition of breakout season. He showed flashes of becoming a Carlos Beltran-like player in 2009 and put all his potential together last year. He'll need to string together a few more seasons like that before I'm willing to pay what he's likely to go for this year (I'll guess $49).
17 points:
Shin-Soo Choo - $23
Not sure if Choo is ever going to step up to the next level, but another 20/20 season with a .300 average is easily attainable and will help significantly in all 6 categories.
16 points:
Ryan Braun - $52
Matt Kemp - $44
Braun took a little power dip last year, but I don't think it'll be a trend. If Matt Kemp's low average and high strikeouts may drive his price down, which would make him a great investment because he should bounce back.
15 points:
Josh Hamilton - $25
Matt Holliday - $40
Nelson Cruz - $25
Jayson Werth - $35
The only question mark on Hamilton is whether or not he'll stay healthy. Holliday, on the other hand, has been healthy and consistent for the past 7 years. Cruz, like his Texas teammate Hamilton, is a powerful bat when he's healthy. Werth loses the advantage of that killer Phillies lineup, but the Nats lineup doesn't look bad with him, Zimmerman, LaRoche and Morse.
14 points:
Carl Crawford - $39
Bobby Abreu - $22
C.C. should benefit from playing half his games in Fenway Park, peppering hits off the Green Monster and grabbing extra bases on balls hit to the deep gaps and taking weird caroms. Abreu could have another 20/20 season in him and is the kind of well-rounded player that never hurts a team (you just need better players to actually win).
13 points:
Andre Ethier - $33
Hunter Pence - $25
Corey Hart - $2
Vladimir Guerrero - $11
Ethier went for more than he was worth last year, but he should settle back down into the $25-$28 range after only hitting 23 homers in 2010. Hunter Pence delivers in the countables, but his OPS is lacking. Still, the consistency is admirable. Hart had a great bounceback year last year, but I'm expecting a slight drop-off (not back to 2009 levels, though). Vlad is an interesting case: he was a first-half monster in Texas last year and then fell off the face of the earth after the All-Star Break. His talent is undeniable, but at 36 it's hard to tell how much longer he'll be productive.
12 points:
Aubrey Huff - $6
Nick Markakis - $29
Michael Cuddyer - $21
This is the point where we start to see the talent divide. Aubrey Huff played a big role on last year's championship team, but he's being challenged at first base by rookie Brandon Belt, prompting a move to right field in Cody Ross's absence. I don't understand why people love Nick Markakis so much. Cuddyer's flexibility makes him an asset.
11 points:
Carlos Lee - $30
Nick Swisher - $12
Manny Ramirez - $25
Justin Upton - $35
Raul Ibanez - $21
Andrew McCutchen - $29
Alex Rios - $19
Lee is still the primary run producer in Houston and hopefully his batting average will pop back up. I have an irrational hate of Nick Swisher the person, but Nick Swisher the amalgamation of statistics is exactly the kind of player I want on my team. Healthy Manny can still rake with the best, so since he'll be the DH this year he might be worth an investment. I have the same issue with Justin Upton as I have with Markakis: all-around average players who get drastically over-valued. Everyone's talking up McCutchen like he's guaranteed to have a breakout year, but I can't spend $25+ on a Pirate.
10 points (start of second tier):
Jose Bautista - undrafted
Curtis Granderson - $31
Jason Heyward - $16
Carlos Beltran - $9
Grady Sizemore - $34
Johnny Damon - $11
Shane Victorino - $20
Bautista cannot replicate last year's numbers, but still should be a dependable power source. When Granderson is healthy, he's a weapon. I don't see a sophomore slump in Heyward's future. Beltran and Sizemore are interesting gambles: you could probably get each for around $5-$8 and they may well return well beyond that investment. Or they may breakdown again. If you've got a solid floor, take a shot. Damon or Victorino can do what Markakis does for a lower investment.
9 points:
Colby Rasmus - $3
Carlos Quentin - $23
Delmon Young - $1
Jason Kubel - $23
Adam Lind - $32
Magglio Ordonez - $8
Drew Stubbs - $5
Chris Young - $4
Ichiro Suzuki - $30
Denard Span - $24
Torii Hunter - $24
Ben Zobrist - $32
Rasmus and Delmon Young took the next steps in their careers last year. Carlos Quentin is batting average cancer, but he still hits for OK power. Kubel and Lind need to improve their batting averages. I don't understand the appeal of the new Magglio Ordonez either: he's like a Markakis who doesn't run or hit homers. Not buying Drew Stubbs; too many strikeouts. Ichiro is the kind of player you pick up so you can have low average slow guys like Swisher on your squad. Too many overpriced guys at this level as the talent starts to thin out.
8 points (start of third tier):
Ryan Ludwick - $17
J.D. Drew - $8
Jay Bruce - $21
Brad Hawpe - $16
Jason Bay - $32
Jacoby Ellsbury - $34
Austin Jackson - $1
Vernon Wells - $11
Nate McLouth - $17
Angel Pagan - undrafted
Unless they come cheap Ludwick and Hawpe are bad buys this year in San Diego. Drew is on the down-swing. Bruce is the next Adam Dunn, minus the steals. Jason Bay and Jacoby Ellsbury could not be any more different players, but both need huge bounceback seasons this year. Ellsbury will deliver. Bay, maybe not. Austin Jackson is in for a sophomore let-down. Wells will be fine in Anaheim, though he won't hit 30 dingers again. Buy McLouth, trust me. Pagan could be mini-Ichiro this year.
7 points:
Mike Stanton - undrafted
Andres Torres - undrafted
David DeJesus - $3
Josh Willingham - $4
Marlon Byrd - $2
Hideki Matsui - $5
Jonny Gomes - $2
Stanton will continue to hit for power but he has got to manage his strikeout rate. Torres was a fluke. Of the three new additions in Oakland (DeJesus, Willingham and Matsui), the only I'd take a flyer on is Willingham: dude has a career .841 OPS, which is pretty good for a guy you should be able to grab for $1. Look out for Jonny Gomes. He didn't have the massive season some people expected with regular playing time last year, but he could easily hit 25+ homers in 2011.
6 points:
Luke Scott - $8
Jose Tabata - undrafted
Adam Jones - $22
Jack Cust - $2
David Murphy - $1
B.J. Upton - $25
Juan Pierre - $3
Luke Scott is an underrated hitter. His teammate Adam Jones is an overrated hitter. David Murphy may actually outperform my projection this year since it looks like he's in line for significant playing time.
Bright spots in the 5 points and under crowd:
Ryan Raburn - 5 pts. - undrafted: worth more as a 2B, but flexibility never hurt anyone.
Michael Morse - 5 pts. - undrafted: could have a huge power year, or could be Jonny Gomes. Worth a look.
Will Venable - 5 pts. - $1: interesting power/speed combo, average is scary.
Coco Crisp - 5 pts. - undrafted: showed unbridled speed in second half of 2010, enough pop to start every day.
Cody Ross - 4 pts. - $12: starting the year on the DL, will push Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell or Brandon Belt to the bench.
Matt LaPorta - 2 pts. - $6: stumbled last year, heavy pressure from the organization to perform this season.
Alex Gordon - 1 point - $1: see Matt LaPorta.
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