Well, I meant "steals" like deals or bargains, but David Wright will do, one of the very few sources of speed at third base. Chone Figgins will be 3B-eligible after a couple of weeks, but I already explained how I feel about him in my second base round-up.
So are there any deals to be had at the hot corner? The talent at this position isn't nearly as shallow as it is at shortstop, but not as deep as second base where there are more upside picks. The top guys are still going to demand top dollar, but some of the middle tier guys may be good enough to propel a team if you can surround him with complementary players.
Last year, I skimped at third and drafted Brandon Wood (hoping for a breakout that never came) and Edwin Encarnacion as a throwback. While E.E. finished the season with 21 homers, it was deceptive production as he missed a month to an arm injury and got sent to the minors in mid-season. I dropped him out of frustration, picked up Houston rookie Chris Johnson (a pleasant surprise), then eventually traded Matt Holliday for Ryan Zimmerman at the deadline.
The lesson: invest at third base. You need production out of this position and it's less nerve-wracking to just pony up the dough than speculate and gamble all season. That said, here are the third base tiers for 2011 (and their 2010 auction value):
6 categories:
Evan Longoria - $46
David Wright - $33
Alex Rodriguez - $50
Steals are the leg up here, and while there are a couple more speedsters at the position, those guys don't pack the power the way the top three do. Longoria's power numbers took a dip last year (only 22 homers), but even at that level he more than contributes in this group. Wright's $33 price tag is sure to go up as he rediscovered his power stroke in 2010. A-Rod could be a steal this year since he only swiped 4 bags last year.
5 categories:
Ryan Zimmerman - $35
Casey McGehee - $6
Zim is a legitimate star who routinely gets overlooked because of where he plays. He could push 100 runs and 100 RBIs again this year with the addition of Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche to the lineup. I feel stupid for letting McGehee go for $6 last year, but I spent too heavy in the early part of the auction and didn't have the bucks left to get into a bidding war.
4 categories:
Jose Bautista - undrafted
Adrian Beltre - $10
Aramis Ramirez - $30
Mark Reynolds - $40
It's not every year that the MLB home run leader goes undrafted in a fantasy league. Given the depth of the Ugueth League, I'd wager that Bautista didn't get taken in most standard mixed leagues and maybe not even in some AL-onlys. He's gonna get some bucks this year, but I'd be shocked if he knocks over 35 homers this year. Beltre should flourish in Texas if he stays healthy. Aramis posted his worst average and OPS since 2002, but I'm guessing he's got another good season or two left in him. Reynolds will hit over the Mendoza line this year and even if that's only .215, he's still worth a big investment.
3 categories:
Martin Prado - $7
Prado's worth more at 3B than 2B or OF (where he'll play primarily this year), but it's dependent on him continuing to hit for .300+ average with a fair number of doubles since he's not a consistent power threat.
2 categories:
Pablo Sandoval - $39
Michael Cuddyer - $21
Scott Rolen - $8
Michael Young - $21
Chipper Jones - $14
Miguel Tejada - $10
Placido Polanco - $6
Kung Fu Panda was a huge disappointment last year (literally *rim shot*), but after dropping almost 40 pounds in the off-season I'm expecting a big bounce back. Cuddyer took a power dip like most Twins last year and Target Field won't do him many favors this year. Michael Young might be traded and he hits 40 points lower on the road compared to his numbers at Arlington. Rolen, Chipper and Tejada are all big question marks due to age.
1 category:
Chris Johnson - undrafted
Jhonny Peralta - $10
Omar Infante - undrafted
Chase Headley - $4
Maicer Izturis - $4
Johnson needs to prove that he wasn't a rookie fluke. Peralta's worth more as a SS. As a Tigers fan, I refuse to believe that Omar Infante is any good. Headley and Izturis provide a little speed, but don't bring enough overall to be a starting option.
0 categories (with upside):
Pedro Alvarez - undrafted
Ian Stewart - $26
Neil Walker - undrafted
Juan Uribe - $1
David Freese - $3
Alex Gordon - $1
Casey Blake - $8
Kevin Kouzmanoff - $5
Brandon Inge - $3
Jose Lopez - $16
Edwin Encarnacion - $1
Melvin Mora - $1
Wilson Betemit - undrafted
Brent Morel - undrafted
Alvarez is sure to command big bucks, but I'm not going to gamble on a sophomore campaign from a Pirate. Repeat for Neil Walker. Ian Stewart is a walking malady, but worth a flyer if the price doesn't get too high. If Betemit stays healthy, he could be a sleeper power source. I'd take Encarnacion for $1 again if he comes around, assuming he gets the bulk of the DH at-bats in Toronto.
The Marlins are a mess at third base. For most of the spring they were grooming Matt Dominguez to take the job, but he proved that he couldn't hit water if he fell off a raft. Donnie Murphy looks like the guy, but he's not worth a buck.
Ty Wigginton could be in for a good amount of playing time in Colorado with Todd Helton being old, Ian Stewart being a likely injury bet and the second base job mostly unsettled between Jose Lopez and Jonathan Herrera.
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