So the Cardinals couldn't sign Albert Pujols to a long-term contract. Details aren't out there, but the rumor is that he wanted 10 years at $30 million per. Considering that he's the best and most consistent hitter in the bigs by a country mile, I think he's more than worth it. But how much is he worth in a fantasy auction?
Checking a variety of sources, El Hombre's average going rate is $48, or about 18% of the total draft budget. It seems pretty irresponsible to wrap up that much of your budget in one player, but Pujols is more than just some player, right? In the UL, we've got 20 teams, which means a lot more money to go around AND a thinning of the talent pool. That makes owning a player like Pujols not just an advantage, but almost a necessity.
Albert went for $57 in last year's draft, about 22% of the total $260 budget. It is a sizable chunk to spend on one player, for sure, but the same owner then spent $55 on Hanley Ramirez and $33 on Andre Ethier. Spending over half his budget on three players (and another 25% on three more) only got him 6th place and a division title worth $100. Not bad.
In 2009, I drafted Pujols at $61 and I did NOT fare that well. Not Albert's fault, of course, but I couldn't afford to put much of a team around him. I learned my lesson in 2010 and let a lot of the highly rated first basemen go early for big money (five of them went for over $50.) However, I knew I needed to grab somebody to anchor my offense and I had my heart set on Miguel Cabrera. I wasn't willing to pay $52 for him, so I let him go. Luckily, I grabbed Adrian Gonzalez - who I regarded as the last acceptable first baseman - for $41.
A quick market analysis shows a deeper field at first base and outfield this year. There;'s also significantly more starting pitching depth, which makes me think that I may be able to get a better deal on a top flight first baseman this year. Let's take a look at the tiers (and their 2010 draft values):
6 categories:
Albert Pujols - $57
It's a stretch to say that Pujols is above average in steals because the SB average among first baseman is so low. Plus, he's 31 years old and he averages 7.5 steals per year, so it's hardly a significant advantage. Still, Albert is going to be Albert and he may even be playing for a landmark free agent contract this year. If there's a year that he's worth $60 at auction, this may be it.
5 categories:
Miguel Cabrera - $51
Mark Teixeira - $51
Adrian Gonzalez - $41
Justin Morneau - $37
If you're not willing to break the bank on Albert, these guys will put up plenty of big numbers for you. I wouldn't worry about Cabrera's off-field problems: he's simply too good a hitter to let that stuff interfere with his play. All Tex does is hit 100-35-100 every year and I'm guessing his BA will come back up. A-Gone is making good progress from his shoulder surgery AND moving to a friendly hitting environment at Fenway. If Morneau conquers his concussion issue, he's in line for a HUGE comeback year.
4 categories:
Ryan Howard - $52
Prince Fielder - $51
Joey Votto - $34
Still no worries at this level. You lose a little bit in batting average with Howard and Fielder, but they will get their HRs and RBIs. NL MVP Joey Votto is an interesting case: his walk rate was extraordinarily high this year and I don't know if that's a repeatable feat. I'm guessing he's going to take a dip, but not to the point where he won't be valuable. Just don't overspend for last year's career year.
3 categories:
Adam Dunn - $35
Kevin Youkilis - $34
Dunn will be DHing in Chicago, so as long as he makes the mental adjustment he should continue to put up numbers. Youkilis will be 3B eligible after about two weeks and I'm guessing that he'll actually have higher value there than at first, even though he's a passable 1B solution this year regardless.
2 categories:
Paul Konerko - $7
Kendry Morales - $32
I can only guess that all 20 of us thought Konerko was "over the hill" last spring, hence the $7 auction price. All he did was have a career year. The now 35 year-old Konerko won't repeat those numbers, but he'll definitely fetch a higher price. If Morales recovers from the most freak injury in the history of baseball, he should post some respectable numbers for the Halos.
1 category:
Billy Butler - $21
Carlos Pena - $24
Victor Martinez - $27
Buster Posey - $1
Pablo Sandoval - $39
Michael Cuddyer - $21
I want to believe that this is Billy Butler's breakout year, but I'm not going to pay for a wish. Carlos Pena should put up his normal power numbers at Wrigley, but the BA is probably a lost cause (he should at least get over the Mendoza Line this season, though.) Martinez and Posey are catcher-eligible, but make this list based on batting average. Sandoval will primarily play 3B and Cuddyer is 3B/OF eligible.
0 categories (but could fill the Utility spot):
Aubrey Huff - $6
Derrek Lee - $36
Adam LaRoche - $11
Carlos Lee - $30
Adam Lind - $32
Luke Scott - $8
Mitch Moreland - undrafted
Gaby Sanchez - $1
Ben Zobrist - $32
Mike Napoli - $9
Brad Hawpe - $16
Ike Davis - undrafted
Lance Berkman - $18
Garrett Jones - $15
James Loney - $17
Kila Ka'aihue - undrafted
Howie Kendrick - $14
Russell Branyan - $5
Matt LaPorta - $6
Juan Rivera - $14
Michael Morse - undrafted
Huff is a gamble at 34 years old. I don't think Derrek Lee is done yet, and he'll actually have a pretty solid O's lineup around him. Curious how Brad Hawpe will fare at Petco Park, one of the worst hitter's parks in MLB. Berkman in RF is going to be an adventure all year. Kila Ka'aihue might be a sleeper power pick as KC's DH. Matt LaPorta needs to put up or pack up this year.
Tampa Bay says they're committed to Dan Johnson at first, but we won't really know how things are going to break down until the end of the spring. It really all depends where Joe Maddon wants Ben Zobrist to play: first, second, or right field.
The Diamondbacks 1B competition is fierce as well. They brought in slugger Russell Branyan on a minor league contract to audition for the job alongside former Yankee minor leaguer Juan Miranda and homegrown power prospect Brandon Allen. Allen has the most potential, but will probably start in AAA. Branyan and Miranda may form a left-right platoon, which ordinarily would favor Branyan (the lefty) if it weren't for regular doses of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jimenez, Mat Latos and had Billingsley in the NL West.
Atlanta's rookie first baseman Freddie Freeman could make a run at rookie of the year. He's only 21 and has a lot of time to develop, but he's showing some signs that his bat is major league ready and he's fielding the position really well. The only reason I haven't rated him as an "upside" prospect is because I generally don't like to invest in rookies. If I can grab him late for $1, I'll take a shot. Otherwise, let somebody else take the risk.
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