By the Numbers

If you had asked me before Opening Day what number would be higher, Butler's field goal percentage in the national title game, or Shin-Soo Choo's batting average after the first 6 games, I would've picked Butler, easy. As it turns out, I'm still right.

Butler shot an abysmal 18.8% (.188) from the floor, the worst offensive performance in an NCAA title game. By comparison, they shot 44.6% for the entirety of the 2010-11 season; not great, but good enough to win.

Shin-Soo Choo, a .294 career hitter, is 2-for-24 after 6 games for a whopping .083 average. Not exactly what I expect from a $38 draft day investment.

Couple that with Adam Dunn's emergency appendectomy on Wednesday and the biggest pieces of my offense are more or less out of commission at the moment. My .222 batting average is not going to cut it, though this week's opponent isn't exactly killing the ball either: I'm only trailing him by 6 runs, 4 HR, 5 SB, 31 points in average and 109 points in OPS. 3 solid days and I could make up some serious ground.

My Saltalamacchia gambit is looking less and less viable. He's getting run on every night by guys who want to test his arm-brain connection. The throw down to second is generally a reflex action and wasn't Salty's problem. Getting the throw back to the pitcher was where the yips showed themselves. Still, he has to prove himself defensively capable, and failing that he needs to at least hit better than the .071 he's posted thus far. There are rumors that the Red Sox are talking with the Nationals about Pudge Rodriguez. He would at least be solid defensively even if he doesn't sting the ball like he used to. That would put Salty out of a job.

So I grabbed Tigers catcher Alex Avila today and sent Melvin Mora packing. Like blackjack, sometimes it pays to have insurance on your bets. Avila's hitting .294 with a pair of dingers and seven RBI to start the season. This was the kind of output I thought we'd see from him last year, but it looks like I jumped the gun.

On the positive side, my pitching has looked really strong so far. I'm sitting on a 3-2 record that would look a lot better if not for a few bullpen implosions, plus 56 strikeouts, a 2.78 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Couldn't be happier with those numbers (aside from the wins, of course.) Jon Lester bounced back from that putrid Opening Day start to throw 7 scoreless against the Tribe yesterday, punching out 9 in the process. I've also got two quality starts from Dan Haren so far with 12 strikeouts over 14 innings of work. We'll see how Kyle Drabek handles the Angels in Anaheim tonight.

Also, Manny Ramirez retired from baseball today. Apparently MLB notified him of a drug test issue and he promptly filed his retirement paperwork. Happy trails, Man-child...

Too Early To Worry

I have to keep reminding myself that it's far too soon to panic. I mean, sure, Phil Coke (a supposed lefty specialist) came in on Opening Day and immediately gave up a homer to the lefty Curtis Granderson, taking the loss in the process. Sure, Jon Lester gave up a homer to the first batter he faced in the Sox season opener, then two more for good measure. No cause for alarm, right?

Right.

Coke is as untrustworthy as any relief pitcher, though I'm really curious now to see how he handles a rotation gig. And Jon Lester is a perennially slow starter, with a career April ERA of 4.79, over a run higher than his career 3.58 number.

Still, it's not hard to start feeling a little panic about this squad. So when I got this trade offer on Friday, I gave it some serious consideration:

Slim Jim gets:
Adam Dunn - 1B - CWS

Chin Music gets:
David Ortiz - DH - BOS
Frank Francisco (DL) - RP - TOR
Jon Rauch - RP - TOR

I've got some depth at first base with Dunn, Adam LaRoche and Kila Ka'aihue, but I'd be taking on a hitter who can only play in my Utility spot. That makes my roster quite a bit less flexible. In exchange for that liability, I'm offered the closing situation for the Jays: Rauch for now, Francisco when he comes back. I've already decided not to play for saves, so it's not much of a consolation. Of course, I made a couple of great trades with Slim Jim last year that took my team to the next level, but I don't get that impression with this deal. Pass.

Meanwhile, Dunn is pulling his weight, hitting .400 with a home run and 5 RBI. Seems to be adjusting to the DH role pretty well. Of course, three games against the Indians will make just about anybody look good.

Why shouldn't I panic? How about Kyle Drabek? In his first start of the season (and only the third of his young career), Drabek held the Twins hitless for 5.1 innings before giving up a single to Denard Span. It would be the only hit he gave up in his seven innings of work, striking out seven along the way. Anything can happen with young pitchers, but he's looking like a pretty good $2 upside pick so far.

Chin Music 2011

I'll write up a full draft recap tomorrow, but here's who I ended up drafting and for how much. Before the draft, I resolved not to spend more than $40 on any single player, focus my investments on infielders and spend no more than $60 on pitching. As you will see, I broke all these rules, but not too badly...

C - Jarrod Saltalamacchia - $1
1B - Adam Dunn - $43
2B - Aaron Hill - $19
3B - Casey McGehee - $25
SS - Jhonny Peralta - $4
OF - Shin-Soo Choo - $38
OF - Andre Ethier - $29
OF - Nate McLouth - $8
UT - Adam LaRoche - $6

BN - Kila Ka'aihue - $8
BN - David Murphy - $2
BN - J.J. Hardy - $2
BN - Melvin Mora - $1

SP - Jon Lester - $30
SP - Dan Haren - $20
SP - Kyle McClellan - $3
RP - Jonny Venters - $2
RP - Joaquin Benoit - $1
P - Erik Bedard - $2
P - Derek Holland - $2
P - Kyle Drabek - $2

BN - Phil Coke - $2
BN - James McDonald - $2
DL - Brandon Webb - $2
DL - Justin Duchscherer - $1

I feel pretty good about my draft. I didn't overspend on any single player (11 players went for over $50 and two - Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki - went for over $60), I only overspent my pitching budget by $9 and the only hole in my starting lineup is at catcher. Regardless, I came really close to hitting the stat levels I thought I would need to be competitive. Batting average is about 10 points too low, I have about 30 homers and 40 RBI to spare, runs are 35 short, steals are low by 50 and OPS is only missed the mark by 10 points. If I could swing an Adam Dunn for Carl Crawford trade, I'd just about exactly hit my marks.

Pitching is another story. I punted saves again this year, but I did grab Venters who should get some chances in Atlanta. I grabbed Lester and Haren as high strikeout anchors and filled the rest of the staff with speculation picks. Webb could be the third ace this team needs, but we won't find out until at least May. Duchscherer could be a helpful ERA and WHIP balance, but health is an issue with him too. I'm expecting big things from Erik Bedard, which is terrifying. The rest of my starters are all "upside" guys who haven't proven anything yet. Pitching propelled me last year (Felix Hernandez, Johan Santana, Clayton Kershaw, Mat Latos & C.J. Wilson), but I also took way more chances on young guys, converted relievers, and injured hurlers this year. Not sure how that's going to play out.

In 11 hours, I guess we'll find out...