They Call It A Winning Streak: 6-5-1 (54-76-14 overall)

I should have won by a lot more this week, but my pitching staff turned in a second straight week of 8+ losses, a 5.00+ ERA and a WHIP north of 1.40. Pitching has been the strength of my squad all year (I lead the league in wins, for what that's worth), but it looks like that's headed in the wrong direction. The bullpen alone posted a 1-3 record for the week with a 7.53 ERA and a 2.37 WHIP. Ouch.

Offense is showing some signs of life, though I'm still having trouble plating runs and putting up a respectable OPS number. Guessing it's mostly OBP that I'm lacking, not slugging percentage. This hurts particularly, since I tend to build my teams around the Moneyball philosophy: you have to score runs to win and you can't score runs unless you get on base.

Aside: you really should watch the trailer for Moneyball. Go ahead, take a few minutes. I'll still be here...

Picked up Lucas Duda to fill the roster spot opened up in the wake of Shin-Soo Choo's injury. They're talking 6 weeks minimum and possible surgery which could sideline him for longer. This is gonna sting a bit.

Just when I thought Adam Dunn was coming around, he falls back into his season-long slump. He's 2 for his last 26 (.077) with 16 strikeouts. He's now on pace to hit about 15 home runs and strike out over 200 times. Dunn's never crossed 200 Ks (only Mark Reynolds ever has) but he has whiffed 194, 195 and 199 times. In those years he hit 46, 40 and 38 homers respectively. Without the power numbers, Adam Dunn is little more than Mark Bellhorn.

The good news is that if this were a roto league, I'd be in 17th place. Unfortunately, since it's head-to-head, I'm in 19th again, despite my 2 week winning streak. Nuts...

Drubbed 1-9-2 (11-21-4 Overall)

Last week was a lot closer than the 1-9-2 record would indicate. I only lost runs and steals by one each and i tied homers and wins. A couple of breaks my way and, well, I still lose, but by a respectable 5-7 instead of this embarrassing 1-9-2. This beatdown drops me to 17th out of 20 and I'm starting to panic.

A panic that was evident in my impulse pickup of Darren O'Day. Rangers closer Neftali Feliz hit the DL on Saturday and the most likely candidates to get saves in his absence were the finesse righty O'Day and the ancient lefties Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes. I had one roster move left for the week and I gambled it on O'Day, who had been struggling (1.58 WHIP) but getting himself out of trouble (2.84 ERA). In fairness, O'Day's numbers over his past two seasons in Texas have been excellent: 1.93 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 7.53 K/9, 101/30 K/BB ratio. Oliver's numbers over the same span are good too: 2.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.69 K/9, 130/37 K/BB.

So why did I pick O'Day over Oliver? (Rhodes was already taken, BTW.) Simple: he's younger, right-handed and has been ridiculously effective for two years straight. But my first instinct was to take Oliver and I went with O'Day instead. I questioned my gut, did a ton of research, checked the local rags for the Rangers beat writers' reporting, read the expert opinions, blah, blah, blah. I talked myself into O'Day out of panic and fear, knowing that Oliver was going to get the gig (even though it hadn't come out of Ron Washington's mouth yet). That night, Darren Oliver got the call in the 9th and converted the save. The next morning, a smarter manager grabbed Oliver. The next night Rhodes got the call. And today it came out that O'Day's been battling hip soreness for the last week or so. So I'm stuck with a struggling, hurt middle reliever with a mid-80s fastball.

Want to know the depth of my panic? Casey McGehee sprained his thumb Monday night in a collision at first base with Joey Votto while trying to leg out an infield single to keep a 9th inning rally alive. No word how long he'll be out. I don't have a backup for him and I'm actually considering giving ex-Angel and new Pirate SS/3B Brandon Wood a shot. Wood was my Opening Day third baseman last year and I endured his pathetic offensive output for over a month before I started up the revolving door at 3B. Now I might be back for more. I should change the name of my team to Battered Wife Syndrome.

After 3 weeks last year, I was 20-14-2. I feel like this team has more talent than last year's squad, but I'm just not getting any breaks. Adam Dunn is 5-for-43 (.116) with 21 Ks since his appendectomy. Shin-Soo Choo has hits in 8 of his last 10 games, but is hitting just .225 over that span. I know I took some chances on untested guys (Kila Ka'aihue, Phil Coke, Kyle Drabek) and some guys I hoped would bounce back (Aaron Hill, Nate McLouth, Erik Bedard), but I thought I had them balanced against enough sure bets (Dunn, Choo, Andre Ethier, Jon Lester, Dan Haren) that I'd still be able to compete. I have serious doubts.

By the Numbers

If you had asked me before Opening Day what number would be higher, Butler's field goal percentage in the national title game, or Shin-Soo Choo's batting average after the first 6 games, I would've picked Butler, easy. As it turns out, I'm still right.

Butler shot an abysmal 18.8% (.188) from the floor, the worst offensive performance in an NCAA title game. By comparison, they shot 44.6% for the entirety of the 2010-11 season; not great, but good enough to win.

Shin-Soo Choo, a .294 career hitter, is 2-for-24 after 6 games for a whopping .083 average. Not exactly what I expect from a $38 draft day investment.

Couple that with Adam Dunn's emergency appendectomy on Wednesday and the biggest pieces of my offense are more or less out of commission at the moment. My .222 batting average is not going to cut it, though this week's opponent isn't exactly killing the ball either: I'm only trailing him by 6 runs, 4 HR, 5 SB, 31 points in average and 109 points in OPS. 3 solid days and I could make up some serious ground.

My Saltalamacchia gambit is looking less and less viable. He's getting run on every night by guys who want to test his arm-brain connection. The throw down to second is generally a reflex action and wasn't Salty's problem. Getting the throw back to the pitcher was where the yips showed themselves. Still, he has to prove himself defensively capable, and failing that he needs to at least hit better than the .071 he's posted thus far. There are rumors that the Red Sox are talking with the Nationals about Pudge Rodriguez. He would at least be solid defensively even if he doesn't sting the ball like he used to. That would put Salty out of a job.

So I grabbed Tigers catcher Alex Avila today and sent Melvin Mora packing. Like blackjack, sometimes it pays to have insurance on your bets. Avila's hitting .294 with a pair of dingers and seven RBI to start the season. This was the kind of output I thought we'd see from him last year, but it looks like I jumped the gun.

On the positive side, my pitching has looked really strong so far. I'm sitting on a 3-2 record that would look a lot better if not for a few bullpen implosions, plus 56 strikeouts, a 2.78 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Couldn't be happier with those numbers (aside from the wins, of course.) Jon Lester bounced back from that putrid Opening Day start to throw 7 scoreless against the Tribe yesterday, punching out 9 in the process. I've also got two quality starts from Dan Haren so far with 12 strikeouts over 14 innings of work. We'll see how Kyle Drabek handles the Angels in Anaheim tonight.

Also, Manny Ramirez retired from baseball today. Apparently MLB notified him of a drug test issue and he promptly filed his retirement paperwork. Happy trails, Man-child...

Too Early To Worry

I have to keep reminding myself that it's far too soon to panic. I mean, sure, Phil Coke (a supposed lefty specialist) came in on Opening Day and immediately gave up a homer to the lefty Curtis Granderson, taking the loss in the process. Sure, Jon Lester gave up a homer to the first batter he faced in the Sox season opener, then two more for good measure. No cause for alarm, right?

Right.

Coke is as untrustworthy as any relief pitcher, though I'm really curious now to see how he handles a rotation gig. And Jon Lester is a perennially slow starter, with a career April ERA of 4.79, over a run higher than his career 3.58 number.

Still, it's not hard to start feeling a little panic about this squad. So when I got this trade offer on Friday, I gave it some serious consideration:

Slim Jim gets:
Adam Dunn - 1B - CWS

Chin Music gets:
David Ortiz - DH - BOS
Frank Francisco (DL) - RP - TOR
Jon Rauch - RP - TOR

I've got some depth at first base with Dunn, Adam LaRoche and Kila Ka'aihue, but I'd be taking on a hitter who can only play in my Utility spot. That makes my roster quite a bit less flexible. In exchange for that liability, I'm offered the closing situation for the Jays: Rauch for now, Francisco when he comes back. I've already decided not to play for saves, so it's not much of a consolation. Of course, I made a couple of great trades with Slim Jim last year that took my team to the next level, but I don't get that impression with this deal. Pass.

Meanwhile, Dunn is pulling his weight, hitting .400 with a home run and 5 RBI. Seems to be adjusting to the DH role pretty well. Of course, three games against the Indians will make just about anybody look good.

Why shouldn't I panic? How about Kyle Drabek? In his first start of the season (and only the third of his young career), Drabek held the Twins hitless for 5.1 innings before giving up a single to Denard Span. It would be the only hit he gave up in his seven innings of work, striking out seven along the way. Anything can happen with young pitchers, but he's looking like a pretty good $2 upside pick so far.

Chin Music 2011

I'll write up a full draft recap tomorrow, but here's who I ended up drafting and for how much. Before the draft, I resolved not to spend more than $40 on any single player, focus my investments on infielders and spend no more than $60 on pitching. As you will see, I broke all these rules, but not too badly...

C - Jarrod Saltalamacchia - $1
1B - Adam Dunn - $43
2B - Aaron Hill - $19
3B - Casey McGehee - $25
SS - Jhonny Peralta - $4
OF - Shin-Soo Choo - $38
OF - Andre Ethier - $29
OF - Nate McLouth - $8
UT - Adam LaRoche - $6

BN - Kila Ka'aihue - $8
BN - David Murphy - $2
BN - J.J. Hardy - $2
BN - Melvin Mora - $1

SP - Jon Lester - $30
SP - Dan Haren - $20
SP - Kyle McClellan - $3
RP - Jonny Venters - $2
RP - Joaquin Benoit - $1
P - Erik Bedard - $2
P - Derek Holland - $2
P - Kyle Drabek - $2

BN - Phil Coke - $2
BN - James McDonald - $2
DL - Brandon Webb - $2
DL - Justin Duchscherer - $1

I feel pretty good about my draft. I didn't overspend on any single player (11 players went for over $50 and two - Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki - went for over $60), I only overspent my pitching budget by $9 and the only hole in my starting lineup is at catcher. Regardless, I came really close to hitting the stat levels I thought I would need to be competitive. Batting average is about 10 points too low, I have about 30 homers and 40 RBI to spare, runs are 35 short, steals are low by 50 and OPS is only missed the mark by 10 points. If I could swing an Adam Dunn for Carl Crawford trade, I'd just about exactly hit my marks.

Pitching is another story. I punted saves again this year, but I did grab Venters who should get some chances in Atlanta. I grabbed Lester and Haren as high strikeout anchors and filled the rest of the staff with speculation picks. Webb could be the third ace this team needs, but we won't find out until at least May. Duchscherer could be a helpful ERA and WHIP balance, but health is an issue with him too. I'm expecting big things from Erik Bedard, which is terrifying. The rest of my starters are all "upside" guys who haven't proven anything yet. Pitching propelled me last year (Felix Hernandez, Johan Santana, Clayton Kershaw, Mat Latos & C.J. Wilson), but I also took way more chances on young guys, converted relievers, and injured hurlers this year. Not sure how that's going to play out.

In 11 hours, I guess we'll find out...