2012 First Base Rankings

Look out behind you, Albert. You've got company.

Albert Pujols signed the third $200+ million contract in MLB history (the first two belong to Alex Rodriguez) and will be anchoring first base in Anaheim for the foreseeable future. There's little doubt that Pujols is worthy of a $25 million salary for the next 3-4 years, given his historic production over the past eleven.

But upon signing with the Angels, the "player in decline" rhetoric that has floated around Pujols for the last few seasons got turned up to 11: he's locked up until age 41 and they'll owe him around $30 million in the final year of the contract. I've heard that the end was nigh for Pujols every spring after his sub-par (for him) 2007 campaign. All he's done since is hit .323 and average 41 homers, 117 RBI and 111 runs in the last 4 seasons. I have no doubt that Albert will make the transition to the American League with no difficulty and put up another typical Pujols year. If I had first pick in my fantasy draft, I'd probably take him...

...if it weren't for Miguel Cabrera moving to third base. The former Tiger first baseman - supplanted by the newest member of the $200 million club, Prince Fielder - has been the steadiest of ships over his 9 year career. Banking on a .320 average, 30-35 homers, 110-120 RBI and around 100 runs this season is one of the easiest bets you could make, especially since he'll be hitting ahead of Fielder in the Detroit lineup. He'd be the second first baseman on my board behind Pujols, but when you add in the 3B eligibility, he becomes far and away the top player available.

So what does Fielder's debut season in Detroit hold? I don't see a reason to think that there will be a major drop-off from his last three seasons. Comerica Park does tend to punish left-handed power a bit, but Prince wasn't exactly hitting wall-scraping homers in Milwaukee. He should hit somewhere around 30-35 homers and drive in a ton of runs, though I have some reservations about the rest of the lineup behind him being able to drive him in. The big gaps at Comerica do actually help a big, lumbering runner like Fielder as he can smack a lot of doubles and score a little easier from second than he would in a smaller park.

Heavy speculation that Joey Votto will be the next member of that exclusive $200 million club. He's in his last year with the Reds and has put up impressive (if not spectacular) numbers over the past 3 seasons, including his 2010 MVP campaign. I don't believe in walk-year bumps, and especially not from guys with a temperament like Votto's. I do expect a season that should look suspiciously like Miguel Cabrera's and you can grab him in the mid-to-late first round. Not a bad deal.

Adrian Gonzalez's first season with the Red Sox was a huge success as he set career highs in hits, runs, batting average and on-base percentage. Clearly, he has benefited from getting out of Petco Park and into a much more friendly hitting environment. I'd expect something close to a repeat of last year's numbers, especially if the team can come together under new manager Bobby Valentine. During Boston's horrendous September stretch, A-Gone drew 21 walks (6 of them intentional), a sure sign that opposing pitchers were more than happy to face someone else in the scuffling Sox lineup.

Yankee first baseman Mark Teixeira has seen a marked decline in batting average over his last three seasons in the Bronx. He still hits a solid .295 against lefties over that span, but the switch-hitter has posted a .287, .247, and .223 against righties and an exaggerated defensive shift. In response, Teixeira has dropped 15 pounds of fat over the offseason and is even talking about bunting against the shift to try to raise his average. He would really only need to do it a couple of times before teams would go back to a traditional defensive alignment, which should help his average get closer to his career .281 mark.

Second Tier:
Paul Konerko - White Sox
Michael Morse - Nationals
Eric Hosmer - Royals
Mark Reynolds - Orioles
Michael Young - Rangers
Mike Napoli - Rangers

Konerko will be 36 years old on opening day. Pundits have loudly announced the end of his career on several occasions, and eventually they're going to be right. I just don't think it'll be this year. He just about single-handedly carried the Chicago offense last year, and I find it hard to believe that they'll look that bad this season.

One of the few smart projections I made last year was on Michael Morse. I saw a big power year, but not much else. All he did was hit 31 homers and back it up with a .303 average and 95 RBIs. I'd like to see a little more plate discipline this year, but I think Morse will have a solid follow-up to his breakout year with the Nationals.

The hate has been flowing against Eric Hosmer this spring, but I can't really put my finger on why. The biggest hole I see in his game is his relative inability to hit lefties, which may lose him some at-bats to Billy Butler. Still, I don't think righties have a book on him yet, so Hosmer's worth a shot, but I wouldn't count on him as an anchor yet.

Mark Reynolds slides into the second tier on power alone. There's no mystery to this guy's game: go yard or go home. Reynolds has a home run, a walk, or a strikeout in over half of his plate appearances. Rob Deer would be so proud. On the plus side, 2011 was the first season since 2007 that he did not lead the majors in strikeouts: Drew Stubbs topped him, 205-196.

During last year's spring camp, everyone expected the Rangers to trade Michael Young, assuming that the acquisition of Adrian Beltre would squeeze him out of playing time. Instead Young accepted a utility/DH role and tied for the league lead in hits. Expect more of the same (though with a batting average closer to his career .304 mark) in this high-octane offense.


Third Tier:
Kendrys Morales - Angels
Mark Trumbo - Angels
Howie Kendrick - Angels
Kevin Youkilis - Red Sox
Billy Butler - Royals
Carlos Pena - Rays
Michael Cuddyer - Rockies
Nick Swisher - Yankees

The Angels' logjam at 1B/LF/RF/DH seems like a ticking time bomb. Obviously Pujols isn't going anywhere, so that leaves Morales, Trumbo, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu vying for 3 lineup spots. Morales still has to prove that he's healthy, but if he does he'll suck up a fair number of DH at-bats due to his surgically repaired ankle. Trumbo is learning how to play third base, but he'll have to really show something to push natural 3Bs Alberto Callaspo and Maicer Izturis out of playing time, even though Trumbo has the best bat of the trio. Abreu appears to be the odd man out, but his contract is unmovable.

This might be Kevin Youkilis's "phoenix from the ashes" season. He's been plagued by injuries the last two years, but still managed to put up respectable numbers. At 33, he's probably got one more great campaign in him, but I wouldn't reach too far to get him this year.

Everyone seems content to believe that Billy Butler's power ceiling is about 20 homers. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that's his floor. He'll turn 26 in April and he hit for much better power last year down the stretch when the Royals were clicking on offense.

The Rays got their franchise home run leader back in Carlos Pena. He'll have free reign to swing for the fences, and with Tampa's talented table-setters hitting in front of him, he should be able to post some respectable counting numbers.

I'll cover Kendrick and Cuddyer more in-depth when I rank second basemen (Cuddyer will be a right fielder in Colorado, but is still 2B eligible and holds higher fantasy value there) and Swisher will get his due when I rank outfielders.


Question Marks:
Lance Berkman - Cardinals
Ryan Howard - Phillies
Ike Davis - Mets
Lucas Duda - Mets
Gaby Sanchez - Marlins
Adam Lind - Blue Jays
Paul Goldschmidt - Diamondbacks
Freddie Freeman - Braves
Justin Morneau - Twins
Adam LaRoche - Nationals
Adam Dunn - White Sox

Berkman had his "phoenix rising from the ashes" season last year, and I think a lot of people are expecting a steep regression from the 36 year-old.

Howard may not return from his freak Achilles injury until mid-to-late May. He should put up good numbers, but obviously his value takes a hit with all the missed time.

Ike Davis just cannot catch a break. He was well on his way to posting a statement season when he rolled his ankle and lost most of 2011 to injury. Now, it's being reported that he's contracted valley fever, a fungal infection that causes flu-like symptoms and can nag for months. So far, the Mets don't seem concerned, but their young 1B might start to think he's cursed.

The improved Miami Marlins lineup should benefit Sanchez in the RBI column, but the organization doesn't have a whole lot of confidence in him as a long term answer at first base.

Is Adam Lind ever going to show the same plate discipline that he did in his 2009 career year? I really doubt it, but the power is still there in bunches.

The starting 1B gig in Arizona belongs to Goldschmidt, but he needs to show the same combo of power and discipline that he did in the minors. Easy enough to say when you play in the same division as Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum.

Freddie Freeman is the guy experts point to as having the same general profile as Eric Hosmer, but going later in drafts. Good opportunity to get value here, though keep an eye on his recently dislocated kneecap.

The concussion Justin Morneau sustained in 2010 seems to have fundamentally changed the former MVP, so much so that he's openly considering retirement if he can't get himself right. I'm not expecting much from him this year, but I'd like to be surprised.

Adam LaRoche was a remarkably consistent performer until last year's attempt to play through a torn labrum torpedoed his season. It remains to be seen if he's recovered from surgery, but there could be sleeper value here.

Adam Dunn put up what very well may be the single worst season of baseball that any hitter has ever had. He was mercifully held out of games at the end of the season so that he wouldn't qualify for the batting title: he would have obliterated the record for lowest qualified batting average, besting (worsting?) Rob Deer's .179 mark by 20 points. Nothing about Dunn's struggles last year made any sense. While he was always a free-swinger, he still showed a pretty sharp batting eye, drawing 75 walks. There was just no contact. Hopefully the regime shake-up on the south side will be fruitful for Dunn and he can regain some of the form that he lost.

2012 Catcher Rankings

Get used to that sight: Mike Napoli admiring another moon shot.

Power has never been a question for the Rangers' backstop, but age might become one soon. Napoli turned 30 last Halloween, and if your last name isn't Molina, that usually signals the downslope of a catcher's career. I'm not expecting a precipitous decline this season - though I think last year's .320 batting average will be pretty tough to match - but he probably has about 2 or 3 more monster power years in him. He's also got a pretty tragic injury history, losing significant parts of 3 seasons including last year. Not to mention that he's coming off a sprained ankle sustained in the World Series that was still troubling him at the beginning of spring camp. Still, Napoli's at the top of my list, though you can really only expect about 100-120 games out of him.

The Indians' Carlos Santana shares the top tier of my list with Napoli. Santana came off his own devastating injury in 2010 to post an impressive season last year. There's still a fair amount of room for him to improve (especially in batting average and defense), but he demonstrated a good eye at the plate (97 walks in 658 plate appearances) and a powerful bat. I see about the same production out of Santana this year as last - he put up a .239 average with 27 homers, 79 RBI and 84 runs scored - and is probably a safer choice than Napoli if you're trying to decide between the two. I personally give the edge to Napoli on the chance that he might stay healthy all year, in which case the counting numbers should be staggering.

If you don't feel like gambling on follow-ups to Napoli's career year or Santana's breakout campaign, think about Brian McCann. The Braves' backstop has been remarkably consistent over his 6 full seasons, batting at a .287 clip and averaging 22 homers, 86 RBIs and 60 runs over that span. There's no reason to believe that he's in for a regression. In fact, at 28 years old, he may be primed for his best season in 2012.

Miguel Montero is in close to the same boat as McCann: a solid catcher who will help your squad across the board. He doesn't excel in any one category, but is overall above average at the position. I'm projecting a .275/15/65/60 floor for the season, though if the D-Backs improved offense clicks together, he's poised to do some real damage.

Last year, I was understandably cautious about Joe Mauer. He was coming off of arthroscopic knee surgery (you never want to hear about catchers with knee trouble) and ended up missing the first half of the season. In the second half, he caught pneumonia and was sapped of health, strength and effectiveness. A disaster year for the former MVP and 3-time batting champion. This spring, Mauer arrived to Twins camp 30 pounds heavier than at the end of last season - back to his typical 235 - and ready to put last year's disappointment behind him. A healthy Mauer, even in the power-sucking Target Field environment, is still capable of a return to form. Lot of fantasy experts out there saying not to touch him, so he could be an excellent value since I suspect he'll fall pretty far in drafts. Just don't expect any kind of power: 5-10 HR, tops.

Second Tier:
Buster Posey - Giants
Alex Avila - Tigers
Matt Wieters - Orioles
J.P. Arencibia - Blue Jays

Posey is only down here because we need to see how he bounces back from that gruesome injury last year. He had a stellar rookie campaign, but wasn't really showing much in 2011 before he got hurt.

Avila had a breakout year last year and needs to prove it was no fluke. He'll have the job all to himself in 2012: Victor Martinez (who started behind the plate against lefties, when healthy) will miss the entire season with a torn ACL.

Three seasons into the Matt Wieters Era and he keeps showing us more and more. I don't know if he's ready to jump into the top tier yet, but one more year like 2011 and it'll be a no-brainer.

Arencibia is an interesting case. He clubbed 23 homers last year, but struck out 133 times in 443 at-bats en route to a .219 average. With the defensively superior prospect Travis d'Arnaud breathing down his neck, he is going to have to mash to keep his job.


Third Tier:
Wilson Ramos - Nationals
Yadier Molina - Cardinals
Salvador Perez - Royals
Carlos Ruiz - Phillies
A.J. Pierzynski - White Sox

Ramos had a solid rookie season and is a bright spot on a Nats team I expect to perform much better than the 2011 edition.

Molina just signed a 5 year/$75 million dollar contract extension, which means the Cards place a much higher value on him than I do. Defense doesn't count in fantasy.

The Royals just locked up their 21 year-old backstop through 2019. Perez impressed down the stretch with the big club last year, hitting .331 in 148 at-bats.

Ruiz is more or less an inconsistent copy of Molina, but playing half your games in Philly is a clear boost to fantasy value.

I hate Pierzynski, but he finds a way to hit for average every year. At age 35, I hope he finally crashes and burns this year.


Question Marks:
Jesus Montero - Mariners
Geovany Soto - Cubs
Chris Iannetta - Angels
Devin Mesoraco - Reds
Russell Martin - Yankees
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Red Sox
Jonathan Lucroy - Brewers

Former Yankee prospect Jesus Montero will suit up for the M's this year and don the catcher's gear for at least a few games when he's not DHing or doing time at 1B (he's currently not C-eligible in Yahoo leagues, by the way). The bat is supposedly big league ready, but it'll be interesting to see how the time split works between him and Miguel Olivo (who clubbed 19 homers last year, including 10 at hitter-unfriendly Safeco Field).

Which Soto will show up on the north side this year: 2010's disciplined slugger, or 2011's free-swinging mess?

Iannetta gets the change of scenery and the starting job he needed, but will his power proclivity make the trip from Colorado to Anaheim as well?

Dusty Baker isn't committing to his hyped young catcher yet, so it's hard to predict Mesoraco's upside with veteran Ryan Hanigan still in the picture for playing time.

Russell Martin's resurgence with the Yankees in 2011 was certainly unexpected, but can he do it again? I think his only fantasy value would be in AL-only or deep mixed leagues or as a back up to an injury-prone star catcher.

Saltalamacchia posted 4 solid months from May-August, but book-ended them with an abysmal April and September. With slugging prospect Ryan Lavarnway just about ready for prime time, how long can you count on Salty?

I have really nothing to back this up, but I think Lucroy might be ready to take the next step offensively. He'll be 26 in June and as long as he can build and maintain trust from the starting pitchers, he could give you a solid effort in 2012.

Braun Wins Appeal

According to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Ryan Braun had his 50-game PED suspension overturned. The exonerated NL MVP had been bumped down many draft boards, but is now probably a safe 1st-round pick yet again.

2012 PROJECTION: .315 BA, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 95 R, 20 SB, .925 OPS

It's yet to be seen how the loss of Prince Fielder and the addition of Aramis Ramirez to the Brewer lineup will impact Braun's numbers, but I have a feeling that he'll find a way to get to this projection without too much struggle.


UPDATE:

So the courier didn't take Braun's sample directly to FedEx and instead kept it in his fridge before sending it to the lab. I'm sure while it was in the fridge some of the courier's giant vat of synthetic testosterone accidentally spilled into Braun's pee. Consider the projection above to be a ceiling, not a floor...

Mannyball

Manny Ramirez, only the second major-leaguer to be busted twice for performance-enhancing drugs* and the first to be handed a 100-game suspension, signed a minor-league deal with the Oakland Athletics. He will receive an invitation to spring training where he will have the opportunity to make the major league club before serving his reduced 50-game sentence. Assuming he makes the team, Manny will be allowed to play in extended spring training games during his suspension, so he should be able to keep his skill set relatively sharp.

So what is Manny Ramirez worth in the fantasy game?

First of all, let's talk history. Manny has a career .312 batting average, which puts him in 9th place among all active MLB hitters. He's a 12-time All-Star, has 9 Silver Slugger awards, 555 homers (14th all-time), 1,831 RBI (18th all-time), a .585 slugging percentage and a .996 OPS (each 9th best all-time). If not for the 2 PED suspensions and the third positive test that MLB never acted on, he'd be a nearly unanimous first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. But alas...

The last we saw of Manny was his 5 game stint in Tampa before the announcement of his 100-game suspension and subsequent retirement. He had 1 hit in 17 at-bats, which is one more major league hit than most of us will ever get. Prior to that, Manny hadn't hit under .290 since his rookie season in 1994, a streak of 16 seasons in Cleveland, Boston, Chavez Ravine and the south side of Chicago. There were a lot of things Manny couldn't do - field his position, get along with management, join his world champion teammates at the White House, keep from abusing his wife, stay off the juice - but hitting the ball was never in doubt.

Even at 40 years old (which he will be when his suspension is over) and over a year removed from his last MLB at-bat, I have little doubt that Manny will find a way to get hits. The real question is, how many chances will the A's give him? Billy Beane has stockpiled outfielders and first basemen, and unless there's a way to put more than 5 of those guys in the lineup every day, someone's going to lose at-bats. Manny was a liability in the outfield in his prime, so there's no way that he touches grass at his current age.

Seth Smith, Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick are the frontrunners for outfield jobs left-to-right. Yoenis Cespedes should push one of those guys out when the club decides he's MLB-ready, which could be as early as Opening Day. Colin Cowgill, Jonny Gomes and a few talented farmhands are competing to make the club out of spring training. Then there's the 4-headed logjam at first base between Daric Barton, Chris Carter, Brandon Allen and Kila Ka'aihue. When Manny shows up in late May, something's got to give.

Is Manny a better DH option than Seth Smith or Josh Reddick? Can you play percentages with Manny? Does he fit in a platoon role? Part of the signing is to help boost attendance. Manny = money, even though you don't have to pay him a dime over $306K. Nobody expects Oakland to contend this year given the Angels and the Rangers loaded squads, but do you let Manny take at-bats away from the talent you're trying to develop so you can contend 2-3 years from now?

If he ends up being Oakland's everyday DH and stays healthy, I think Manny's capable of a .285, 10 HR, 55 RBI season over about 300 at-bats. Probably worth a $1 or a late-round flyer if you have a deep bench and can afford to stash him for two months. However, if a couple of the A's outfield is reasonably productive through May, there would be intense pressure to keep Manny on the pine or cut him outright.

It's as unpredictable as, well, Manny.

*Neifi Perez, of all people, was the other. He hit .172 with 1 home run the year he was suspended twice (2007).

2012

Cannot wait for this season to start.  It's been far too long and I need to make up for last year's awful showing.

Thinking about taking this blog in another direction, something a little less "me-centric".  Haven't put all the pieces together just yet.  Stay tuned...

Superstition

^Kinda surprised he can lift his arm this high.

Brandon Webb felt discomfort in his surgically repaired right shoulder and was shut down in his rehab assignment. In an interview with the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, when asked if he would be able to come back Webb said "How many times can you do it? Who knows? I have no idea." One gets the impression that Webb is done for this season and probably for the rest of his career.

You can't fault a guy for taking a chance on Webb. After all, he did spend six seasons dominating hitters with a virtually unhittable sinker. He never had breathtaking velocity, but the movement on that sinker fooled enough hitters that he was able to post 1,065 strikeouts in a little over 1,300 innings. Even when they made contact, Webb was able to minimize the damage: he induced over 64% of opposing batters into ground balls from 2003-2008, leading all major league pitchers over that span.

So it's reasonable to think that Webb could make a comeback and regain some of his previous form. Maybe he wouldn't be the dominating pitcher he once was, but if he could continue to get grounders and keep the ball in the yard (only Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw have given up fewer HR/9 since 2003) he'd be a valuable asset to a winning team in Texas. And medical science has progressed to the point where a pitcher's arm can be rebuilt almost to better condition than before an injury, so why not spend $2 on Brandon Webb on draft day?

As it turns out, Webb's shoulder is not okay even after two years on the sidelines recuperating from surgery. He's been knocked around in his few rehab starts at the Single- and Double-A levels. Now, he's shut down indefinitely with soreness in his shoulder and we may have seen the last of the best sinkerball pitcher of the last 20 years.

I've been carrying Brandon Webb on my DL since opening day, hoping that he'd make a return to the bigs and help my virtual ball club. But I'm starting to think that maybe Webb's struggles - and the delusional thought process that led me to stick with him and other stiffs on my squad - are what has been keeping my team near the cellar all season. Maybe Webb's injury caused Adam Dunn's burst appendix, Shin-Soo Choo's broken hand, Erik Bedard's strained knee. Maybe I'm running an infirmary and not a fantasy baseball team. It sounds crazy and it is, but other than bad luck and coincidence, I can only believe that it's either Webb's fault or the entire universe is out to get me.

So, happy trails Brandon Webb. I really do hope that you're able to come back and be an effective major league pitcher again. But more so, I hope somebody else in this league picks you up and stashes you away so they can inherit your curse.

Who Didn't See This Coming?

NEWS FLASH: Erik Bedard is injured.

For the third straight season, Erik Bedard makes 15 starts and then heads to the disabled list. In fairness, Bedard's 2008 and 2009 campaigns had a short DL break *during* his 15 starts, only to be capped with a season-ending arm injury. The 2011 Bedard made 15 straight starts, looking downright dominant for the last 11. And the injury that's landed him back on the DL is a sprained left knee, which is a relief considering that this is a guy who missed all of last season recovering from shoulder surgery.

Still, Bedard's injury leaves me in a really tough spot. Jon Lester and Dan Haren continue to anchor my starting pitching, but the situation looks pretty bleak past those guys. Josh Collmenter has gotten tagged for 5+ earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts as it appears the league has caught up with the tomahawk-throwing righty. Kyle McClellan has been inconsistent since his return from the DL, allowing 27 baserunners in 17.1 innings over three starts. Derek Holland continues to be ineffective at home, sporting a 5.89 ERA in Arlington, over 2 runs higher than his road mark. Jeff Francis has the opposite problem, posting a 3.41 ERA at home and a 6.75 away from Kauffman Stadium. Jesse Litsch is still on the DL and may not have a spot in the rotation open for him upon his return.

The Phil Coke era is over, by the way. Jim Leyland pulled the reliever-turned-starter from the rotation and put him back in the bullpen to be used as a lefty specialist. Coke showed some potential but ultimately couldn't string together enough consistent outings to keep his job, especially after a late May DL stint. He was replaced by Charlie Furbush, who I'm sure was never made fun of as a kid.

So I have 6 starting pitchers, 2 of whom cannot be used half the time due to their home road splits and 2 more that are showing signs of decline. Starting pitching is an incredibly rare and valuable commodity in a 20-team league, so naturally there are no legitimate options in the free agent pool. The Marlins just recalled Brad Hand to pitch today against the Rangers, which is not exactly a prime fantasy matchup for a dude with exactly 3 big league starts. Greg Reynolds will take the ball for the Rockies today against the Royals, but this will be his only start and then he'll be sent back to Colorado Springs. The Pirates are going to give Brad Lincoln a look today against the Nats; he's been pitching very well at AAA Indianapolis, but this is likely to be a spot start as well and he'll be sent back after the game.

My team has no chance of competing if I'm going to be heavily relying on spot start call-ups to give me innings. But who am I kidding? My team has no chance to compete anyway.