The Darren O'Day Era is Over

Darren O'Day leaked his injury status to Facebook today and it turns out that his hip labrum is torn and will require surgery. I promptly took the opportunity to give him his limping papers. But who should replace him on the roster?

Punting saves doesn't mean ignoring opportunities to pick them up, hence why I took a flyer on O'Day in the first place. I just didn't want to spend draft dollars on closers and I'm not going to be heartbroken if I lose saves every week. Let's back up and take a look at the dollar values and April stats of the top ten (eleven, actually) highest paid closers:

Carlos Marmol, $25: 1-1, 5 SV, 15 K, 2.53 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (10.2 IP)
Mariano Rivera, $22: 1-0, 7 SV, 9 K, 2.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP (10.2 IP)
Heath Bell, $21: 1-0, 5 SV, 7 K, 0.90 ERA, 0.90 WHIP (10.0 IP)
Neftali Feliz, $20: 0-0, 5 SV, 6 K, 1.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP (8.1 IP) *injured*
Brian Wilson, $20: 0-1, 6 SV, 8 K, 8.64 ERA, 1.68 WHIP (8.1 IP)
Joakim Soria, $19: 1-0, 5 SV, 5 K, 5.59 ERA, 1.55 WHIP (9.2 IP)
Jonathan Papelbon, $19: 0-0, 5 SV, 11 K, 2.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP (8.1 IP)
John Axford, $18: 0-1, 5 SV, 11 K, 5.79 ERA, 1.61 WHIP (9.1 IP)
Jose Valverde, $18: 2-0, 5 SV, 9 K, 0.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP (9.2 IP)
Francisco Rodriguez, $17: 1-0, 5 SV, 13 K, 2.08 ERA, 1.73 WHIP (8.2 IP)
Matt Thornton, $17: 0-2, 0 SV, 7 K, 6.43 ERA, 2.43 WHIP (7.0 IP) *removed from closer role*

Marmol, Rivera, Bell, Papelbon and Valverde were clearly worth the investment. Feliz was doing well until he got hurt. K-Rod is converting saves and getting out of trouble, but that WHIP suggests that the situation could change at any time. Wilson, Soria and Axford have struggled but kept their jobs. Thornton has been a complete failure.

When you consider that the next two closers on the list are Jose Contreras (injured) and Jonathan Broxton (removed), that means only 5 of the 13 top drafted closers can be considered good investments. Makes me feel a lot better about spending my money on other guys. I just wish those guys were performing.

Anyway, since the available starting pitching in the free agent pool is, dare I say, crappy, I checked through the available list of middle relievers. Slim Jim dropped the Padres' Luke Gregerson, one of MLB's elite bullpen strikeout men. Unfortunately, he's on the waiver wire until Friday. While my waiver priority is only 15 out of 20, I don't want to go back to the back over a middle reliever. If he clears waivers, I'll probably pick him up. However, I could use a player now.

Enter Mark Melancon (pictured above). The former Yankee prospect was traded to Houston in the Lance Berkman deal last summer. So far this season, he's posted a 2-1 record, 0 saves, 10 Ks, 1.54 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 11.2 innings. Good numbers, but the most attractive thing about Melancon is that he's the set-up man behind Brandon Lyon, who has a tenuous grip on the Astros closer job (2-1, 4 SV, 4 K, 4.82 ERA, 1.82 WHIP in 9.1 innings). If Lyon loses the gig, Melancon is likely to take over as closer.

Which would explain why Last Year's Champ sent me two trade offers for him. LYC previously owned him and, ironically, Melancon's only loss this season directly contributed to my 6-5 victory two weeks ago. LYC also owns Brandon Lyon and clearly believes in the handcuff rule. He's not offering me much: one offer is a one-to-one trade for injured Indians starter Mitch Talbot, the other offer is Talbot, Joe Mauer (also injured) and Royals OF Melky Cabrera for Melancon, Jonny Venters and Adam Dunn. I'm not seriously considering either offer, but mostly just because I get an injured player (or two) back no matter what and I already have 3 full DL spots and 2 other injured players taking up spots on my bench.

Clearly LYC wants Melancon, so I'm thinking of making a counter-offer for a healthy player, maybe Angels catcher Hank Conger. But I'll probably keep him and hope he grabs the closer job. 2 or 3 saves in a week can be enough to win in this league, so one closer may be enough to compete.

Drubbed 1-9-2 (11-21-4 Overall)

Last week was a lot closer than the 1-9-2 record would indicate. I only lost runs and steals by one each and i tied homers and wins. A couple of breaks my way and, well, I still lose, but by a respectable 5-7 instead of this embarrassing 1-9-2. This beatdown drops me to 17th out of 20 and I'm starting to panic.

A panic that was evident in my impulse pickup of Darren O'Day. Rangers closer Neftali Feliz hit the DL on Saturday and the most likely candidates to get saves in his absence were the finesse righty O'Day and the ancient lefties Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes. I had one roster move left for the week and I gambled it on O'Day, who had been struggling (1.58 WHIP) but getting himself out of trouble (2.84 ERA). In fairness, O'Day's numbers over his past two seasons in Texas have been excellent: 1.93 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 7.53 K/9, 101/30 K/BB ratio. Oliver's numbers over the same span are good too: 2.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.69 K/9, 130/37 K/BB.

So why did I pick O'Day over Oliver? (Rhodes was already taken, BTW.) Simple: he's younger, right-handed and has been ridiculously effective for two years straight. But my first instinct was to take Oliver and I went with O'Day instead. I questioned my gut, did a ton of research, checked the local rags for the Rangers beat writers' reporting, read the expert opinions, blah, blah, blah. I talked myself into O'Day out of panic and fear, knowing that Oliver was going to get the gig (even though it hadn't come out of Ron Washington's mouth yet). That night, Darren Oliver got the call in the 9th and converted the save. The next morning, a smarter manager grabbed Oliver. The next night Rhodes got the call. And today it came out that O'Day's been battling hip soreness for the last week or so. So I'm stuck with a struggling, hurt middle reliever with a mid-80s fastball.

Want to know the depth of my panic? Casey McGehee sprained his thumb Monday night in a collision at first base with Joey Votto while trying to leg out an infield single to keep a 9th inning rally alive. No word how long he'll be out. I don't have a backup for him and I'm actually considering giving ex-Angel and new Pirate SS/3B Brandon Wood a shot. Wood was my Opening Day third baseman last year and I endured his pathetic offensive output for over a month before I started up the revolving door at 3B. Now I might be back for more. I should change the name of my team to Battered Wife Syndrome.

After 3 weeks last year, I was 20-14-2. I feel like this team has more talent than last year's squad, but I'm just not getting any breaks. Adam Dunn is 5-for-43 (.116) with 21 Ks since his appendectomy. Shin-Soo Choo has hits in 8 of his last 10 games, but is hitting just .225 over that span. I know I took some chances on untested guys (Kila Ka'aihue, Phil Coke, Kyle Drabek) and some guys I hoped would bounce back (Aaron Hill, Nate McLouth, Erik Bedard), but I thought I had them balanced against enough sure bets (Dunn, Choo, Andre Ethier, Jon Lester, Dan Haren) that I'd still be able to compete. I have serious doubts.

Peace.

A day after I espoused the notion that starting pitching, no matter how terrible, is invaluable in a 20-team league, I'm sending James McDonald packing.

0-2, 10.13 ERA, 1.98 WHIP and 12 Ks in 18-2/3 innings (4 starts). He only made it out of the 5th inning once. With any pitcher, there's always a chance he could give me a couple of solid starts or even completely turn it around, but I don't see it in the cards. His fastball velocity is down about 5 mph from last fall and, well, he still pitches for the Pirates, so the W-L record is going to be suspect.

Picked up 2B Daniel Murphy from the Mets, just in case Aaron Hill hits the DL. MRI on Hill's leg was inconclusive.

However, this still leaves me short on starting pitching. Well, short for me since I'm punting saves. I've got nine active starters and three more on the DL (Brandon Webb, Andrew Cashner and Justin Duchscherer) but none of them are close to returning. Cashner would be first as he's starting his rehab throwing program today. The reports on Webb are mildly encouraging, but the guy hasn't pitched in the bigs in over two years AND he recently told a reporter that he'd take a relief role if that's all there was for him. He might be onto something there, as the Rangers rotation looks pretty good apart from Colby Lewis' early struggles. Duchscherer was recently transferred to the 60-day DL, though it was primarily a move to free a spot on the 40-man roster. There's no good timetable for his return.

As expected, the free agent/waiver market is barren. The only available guy with a start in the next four days is Brad Bergesen, but he's pitching against the Yankees. No deal.

A Win Is A Win: 6-5-1 (10-12-2 overall)

Adam LaRoche, I take back everything bad I ever said about you. Your 8th inning homer against the Brewers on Sunday clinched a victory in batting average, .257 to .249. I know, that doesn't seem altogether that close, but between your three hits and Casey McGehee's 4 hits in the doubleheader, you gave me what I needed to best last year's league champ. Just don't exacerbate the tear in your left shoulder and we'll get along just fine.

My pitching gambit almost backfired. I was down one in wins and tied in losses. I started Jon Lester, Dan Haren and Jeff Francis to try to win one of those categories. Lester and Haren brought home W's, but Francis got beaten by the Mariners. My opponent benched his only Sunday starter (Barry Enright), who eventually took the loss in that game. However, Astros reliever Mark Melancon got battered by the Padres and took an L. At the end of the day, I clinched the victory in wins and had a 4-4 tie in losses. Trust your guys, and with a little luck they'll pull through for you.

I won steals (8), batting average (.257), wins (5), strikeouts (61), ERA (2.90) and WHIP (1.21). I tied losses (4) and lost everything else. It's amazing to me that I was actively trying to punt steals in the draft and I've won that category two weeks in a row now.

The beginning of this week has been a role reversal as far as season trends go. My offense is still not hitting for average or OPS, but we're competitive in runs, homers, RBIs and steals. Pitching, however, has been a struggle so far with Kyle Drabek, Phil Coke and Erik Bedard all getting roughed up. I only get one start each from Lester and Haren this week, so I decided to start everyone, including Bedard and James McDonald. I also picked up the A's Tyson Ross who's filling in for the injured Dallas Braden. Had to drop Joaquin Benoit to make room, but there's a chance I could get him back or at least pick up another similar middle reliever like Joel Peralta from the Rays. As badly as I wanted to drop the underperforming Bedard or McDonald, starting pitching is at an absolute premium in this league and Ross won't be in the rotation long enough to give up an established starter.

Bad news: Aaron Hill had to be lifted from Tuesday's game with a "sore hamstring." It was bad enough that they had to perform an MRI on Wednesday; no report on the outcome yet. Hill hadn't shown the power bat yet, but was making up for it on the basepaths. In fact, he hurt his hamstring on his 6th steal of the year, tying his career high. He was hitting .242 at the time of his injury, which was a marked improvement over last year's .205 or even his struggles for most of the first two weeks. Phillies infielder Wilson Valdez is my backup, but if Hill ends up on the DL, I'll have to hit the free agent pool for 2B at-bats. With Rule 5 experiment Brad Emaus gone, Daniel Murphy is on the good side of the 2B platoon for the Mets. Hill's potential replacement, Jayson Nix, comes off waivers on Friday. Apart from those two, the cupboard is bare. This league is DEEP.

A Matter of Trust

Looking at the matchup situation on Saturday morning, it seemed like an easy call. My opponent this week (last year's champ) had Indians hurler Josh Tomlin and inconsistent Royals pitcher Sean O'Sullivan going on Saturday with the less-than-stellar D-backs righty Barry Enright scheduled for Sunday. My Saturday had Derek Holland against the Yankees, James McDonald against the Reds and Kyle McClellan matched up against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. On Sunday I'll have my aces - Jon Lester and Dan Haren - as well as the surprising Jeff Francis against the anemic Seattle offense. All categories (except saves) are either close or competitive, though I'm leading all of them going into Saturday's games.

Thinking about last week, I decided to play a little closer to the vest: Holland has been very good, McDonald has been lackluster, and McClellan has been lucky but effective. I start Holland on principle, well, two principles actually: he's throwing well and screw the Yankees. I bench McDonald against the red-hot Cincinnati offense. I vacillated on McClellan: he's getting wins, but matched up against Kershaw makes his probability of losing much higher. Ultimately, I benched him.

Holland guts out seven strong innings against the Bombers, only to give up a 2-run homer to Robinson Cano in the eighth. Loss.

McDonald gets lit up by the Reds, giving up nine hits and seven runs (six earned) in 4-1/3 innings. Benching him turned out to be a very smart play, but now I also have to think about whether he's worth keeping on the roster. I'll have Andrew Cashner back in a couple of weeks and I'll likely have to make a roster spot for him.

All Kyle McClellan did was beat the Dodgers, holding them to one run and six hits over seven innings, lowering his ERA to 1.89 on the season. Kershaw did not fare so well, giving up five runs on six hits and five walks. He did strike out five, but had to be lifted after 4-2/3 innings and 111 pitches.

Part of my draft strategy was to rely on young pitchers with upside. That's how I got guys like McClellan, Kyle Drabek, and Phil Coke on this team. Same way I got Mat Latos, C.J. Wilson and Wade Davis on last year's squad. In the early going, I need to learn to trust these guys more. I'm going to get burned every once in a while (see Erik Bedard) but there's really only one way to let these bets pay off: let them play.

So going into Sunday's games, I'm down 4-3 in wins and tied 3-3 in losses. I have pretty safe leads in strikeouts and ERA and a smaller lead in WHIP. I'm in the exact same spot I was in last week, sitting on a loss and a tie with three starters to go. I'm going to let it ride again, though it's not that tough a call to let Lester and Haren throw. I've got some faith in Jeff Francis against the Mariners, though if it were just about any other team, I'd sit him down.

My offense still isn't showing much, though there have been a few bright spots. Aaron Hill lit up the Red Sox the last couple of days, bringing his average up to .241. The OPS is still a dismal .555 and he hasn't left the yard yet, but he does have five steals on the young season, only one short of his career high. Shin-Soo Choo is showing signs of breaking out of his slump, going 10-for-29 (.345) in his last 8 games. Andre Ethier's .386 average is somewhat deceiving, as he's hitting a blistering .500 off righties, but only .190 off lefties. He's a career .245 hitter against southpaws, so I'm expecting an overall dropoff at some point since that .500 against righties is wholly unsustainable.

4-7-1

This one's a little dated, sorry.

Going into the last day of my Week 1 matchup, I found myself down 5-4 in the wins category and tied at 3 in losses. I had an adequate lead in strikeouts and a commanding advantage in ERA and WHIP. I had three starters slated to go on Sunday afternoon: Derek Holland, James McDonald and Erik Bedard (pictured above.) My opponent had no starters going on Sunday, so I had a decision to make:

1) Bench my starters and settle for a tie and a loss.
2) Take a shot with the best starter I've got and hope to tie in wins.
3) Go for the gusto, start everybody and shoot for the win in wins, even if it means taking a loss in losses.

There's an old saying that you can't win the pennant in April, but you can lose it. There's also an old saying that fortune favors the bold. I decided to start all three guys. No guts, no glory.

Holland went six shutout innings and beat the Orioles, drawing me into a tie in the wins category. McDonald pitched to a no decision against the Rockies. Bedard, unfortunately, got shelled for six runs in four innings of work against the surprising Indians. At the end of the day, I had a tie and a loss just like I did in the morning.

I lose 4-7-1, but it's close. My offense is less than impressive with Dunn out and Choo struggling, but I end up winning RBIs and only losing homers by 1, runs by 5, average by 3 points and OPS by 22 points. Wins and losses are unpredictable, but the skill numbers on my pitching staff (86 Ks, 3.01 ERA and 1.07 WHIP) all look really good.

By the Numbers

If you had asked me before Opening Day what number would be higher, Butler's field goal percentage in the national title game, or Shin-Soo Choo's batting average after the first 6 games, I would've picked Butler, easy. As it turns out, I'm still right.

Butler shot an abysmal 18.8% (.188) from the floor, the worst offensive performance in an NCAA title game. By comparison, they shot 44.6% for the entirety of the 2010-11 season; not great, but good enough to win.

Shin-Soo Choo, a .294 career hitter, is 2-for-24 after 6 games for a whopping .083 average. Not exactly what I expect from a $38 draft day investment.

Couple that with Adam Dunn's emergency appendectomy on Wednesday and the biggest pieces of my offense are more or less out of commission at the moment. My .222 batting average is not going to cut it, though this week's opponent isn't exactly killing the ball either: I'm only trailing him by 6 runs, 4 HR, 5 SB, 31 points in average and 109 points in OPS. 3 solid days and I could make up some serious ground.

My Saltalamacchia gambit is looking less and less viable. He's getting run on every night by guys who want to test his arm-brain connection. The throw down to second is generally a reflex action and wasn't Salty's problem. Getting the throw back to the pitcher was where the yips showed themselves. Still, he has to prove himself defensively capable, and failing that he needs to at least hit better than the .071 he's posted thus far. There are rumors that the Red Sox are talking with the Nationals about Pudge Rodriguez. He would at least be solid defensively even if he doesn't sting the ball like he used to. That would put Salty out of a job.

So I grabbed Tigers catcher Alex Avila today and sent Melvin Mora packing. Like blackjack, sometimes it pays to have insurance on your bets. Avila's hitting .294 with a pair of dingers and seven RBI to start the season. This was the kind of output I thought we'd see from him last year, but it looks like I jumped the gun.

On the positive side, my pitching has looked really strong so far. I'm sitting on a 3-2 record that would look a lot better if not for a few bullpen implosions, plus 56 strikeouts, a 2.78 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Couldn't be happier with those numbers (aside from the wins, of course.) Jon Lester bounced back from that putrid Opening Day start to throw 7 scoreless against the Tribe yesterday, punching out 9 in the process. I've also got two quality starts from Dan Haren so far with 12 strikeouts over 14 innings of work. We'll see how Kyle Drabek handles the Angels in Anaheim tonight.

Also, Manny Ramirez retired from baseball today. Apparently MLB notified him of a drug test issue and he promptly filed his retirement paperwork. Happy trails, Man-child...

The Ugliest Trade

First trade of the season, and what a blockbuster:

AT&Love (the team that didn't show up for the draft) gets:

Aaron Harang - SP - San Diego Padres

Hot Karl gets:

Brandon Inge - 3B - Detroit Tigers


A.J. Pierzynski - C - Chicago White Sox

Advantage: Hot Karl. Not only does he get rid of the daywalker Aaron Harang (who I'm pretty sure even Petco Park will not help this year), but he also gets a potential power threat in Preparation H Raymond, er, Brandon Inge. Seriously, I don't know if two uglier people could have been traded for each other. If you think you can top this, leave it in the comments.

AT&Love does make a respectable move getting rid of Pierzynski, though. The only thing A.J. does well is make you hate him. I don't think White Sox fans even like him, and White Sox fans would cheer for Glenn Beck if he wore black pinstripes...

Too Early To Worry

I have to keep reminding myself that it's far too soon to panic. I mean, sure, Phil Coke (a supposed lefty specialist) came in on Opening Day and immediately gave up a homer to the lefty Curtis Granderson, taking the loss in the process. Sure, Jon Lester gave up a homer to the first batter he faced in the Sox season opener, then two more for good measure. No cause for alarm, right?

Right.

Coke is as untrustworthy as any relief pitcher, though I'm really curious now to see how he handles a rotation gig. And Jon Lester is a perennially slow starter, with a career April ERA of 4.79, over a run higher than his career 3.58 number.

Still, it's not hard to start feeling a little panic about this squad. So when I got this trade offer on Friday, I gave it some serious consideration:

Slim Jim gets:
Adam Dunn - 1B - CWS

Chin Music gets:
David Ortiz - DH - BOS
Frank Francisco (DL) - RP - TOR
Jon Rauch - RP - TOR

I've got some depth at first base with Dunn, Adam LaRoche and Kila Ka'aihue, but I'd be taking on a hitter who can only play in my Utility spot. That makes my roster quite a bit less flexible. In exchange for that liability, I'm offered the closing situation for the Jays: Rauch for now, Francisco when he comes back. I've already decided not to play for saves, so it's not much of a consolation. Of course, I made a couple of great trades with Slim Jim last year that took my team to the next level, but I don't get that impression with this deal. Pass.

Meanwhile, Dunn is pulling his weight, hitting .400 with a home run and 5 RBI. Seems to be adjusting to the DH role pretty well. Of course, three games against the Indians will make just about anybody look good.

Why shouldn't I panic? How about Kyle Drabek? In his first start of the season (and only the third of his young career), Drabek held the Twins hitless for 5.1 innings before giving up a single to Denard Span. It would be the only hit he gave up in his seven innings of work, striking out seven along the way. Anything can happen with young pitchers, but he's looking like a pretty good $2 upside pick so far.