They Call It A Winning Streak: 6-5-1 (54-76-14 overall)

I should have won by a lot more this week, but my pitching staff turned in a second straight week of 8+ losses, a 5.00+ ERA and a WHIP north of 1.40. Pitching has been the strength of my squad all year (I lead the league in wins, for what that's worth), but it looks like that's headed in the wrong direction. The bullpen alone posted a 1-3 record for the week with a 7.53 ERA and a 2.37 WHIP. Ouch.

Offense is showing some signs of life, though I'm still having trouble plating runs and putting up a respectable OPS number. Guessing it's mostly OBP that I'm lacking, not slugging percentage. This hurts particularly, since I tend to build my teams around the Moneyball philosophy: you have to score runs to win and you can't score runs unless you get on base.

Aside: you really should watch the trailer for Moneyball. Go ahead, take a few minutes. I'll still be here...

Picked up Lucas Duda to fill the roster spot opened up in the wake of Shin-Soo Choo's injury. They're talking 6 weeks minimum and possible surgery which could sideline him for longer. This is gonna sting a bit.

Just when I thought Adam Dunn was coming around, he falls back into his season-long slump. He's 2 for his last 26 (.077) with 16 strikeouts. He's now on pace to hit about 15 home runs and strike out over 200 times. Dunn's never crossed 200 Ks (only Mark Reynolds ever has) but he has whiffed 194, 195 and 199 times. In those years he hit 46, 40 and 38 homers respectively. Without the power numbers, Adam Dunn is little more than Mark Bellhorn.

The good news is that if this were a roto league, I'd be in 17th place. Unfortunately, since it's head-to-head, I'm in 19th again, despite my 2 week winning streak. Nuts...

What They Giveth, They Taketh Away

I wouldn't say I was gloating about Pujols' injury, just looking for the silver lining. To that end, i don't think I deserved any karmic retribution by way of Shin-Soo Choo getting a broken thumb courtesy of a Jonathan Sanchez fastball. Still, it's bothersome that this injury would befall Choo just as he was starting to come around at the plate and giving me some hope of climbing up the standings.

On the bright side, this clears up my clogged outfield problem for the next six weeks, as I'll only have Ethier, Jay, Denorfia, McLouth and Revere to rotate through the lineup. I really don't know who I'm going to get to replace Choo on the roster. There aren't many intriguing position players available in free agency. Brent Lillibridge is out there, but he doesn't get enough playing time to be useful. I could also pick up the injured Jed Lowrie and stash him away on the DL, but there's no timetable on when he'll return to big league action.

So this is a huge blow to my team, but I'm trying not to let it get me down. I mean, how much worse can it get?

Uh-oh

So yesterday, I said Jon Jay would lose playing time with a fully healthy Cardinals outfield. Scratch that, I guess. Albert Pujols' broken arm means Lance Berkman will slide into first base duty, opening up right field for Jay.

You never want to see a guy get hurt, but the reality of the game is that you have to be in position to take advantage of unfortunate circumstances. It's why you handcuff backups to injury prone stars.

So I have another full-time outfielder for the next 4-6 weeks. Jay's trade value just went up. Maybe it's time for me to make a deal.

Learning to Crawl (8-4 this week, 48-71-13 overall)

I've been away from the blog for a few weeks. I got married. Kinda took up some of my time. Maybe that's why my squad plummeted to 19th out of 20 over the last month and a half. Time to get back to business.

Lot of changes since the last time I posted. I've made a fundamental shift in my attitude regarding saves. I don't regret my non-investment in closers on draft day (though it's pretty apparent that I wasted most of my budget on chump hitters). However, just because I didn't spend dollars doesn't mean I'm not looking for saves. As previously mentioned, I picked up Mark Melancon of the Astros who was promptly elevated to the closer role upon Brandon Lyon's arm injury. I also took a gamble on Fernando Salas of the Cardinals which paid off as he emerged from the bullpen chaos in St. Louis. Slim Jim gave up on Frank Francisco last week and I quickly picked him up; looks like he's back in his closer role in Toronto. I also made a move for Matt Thornton who may earn his White Sox closer job back from Sergio Santos. Even if he doesn't, he's been a historically good reliever. Not to mention I got Jonny Venters for $2 on draft day. Smart.

I lost both of my 1B cheap power gambits. Kila Ka'aihue got sent down in favor of phenom Eric Hosmer. Adam LaRoche finally gave up on trying to play through a torn labrum in his shoulder and he's done for the season. That's $14 down the toilet. The only first baseman I have left on my squad is Adam Dunn, who finally is showing some signs that he's ready to turn things around. You would not believe some of the trade offers I've been getting for Dunn. Apparently when you're in next-to-last place, everyone in your league seems to think that you're actually very, very stupid and gullible. I'm not going to trade a 31-year-old guy with 361 career homers for a backup outfielder and a pitcher who's going to be on the DL for 2 more months. I'm also not going to trade him for a guy you picked up this morning, Hot Karl.

Back to the pitching staff, I took a flier on tomahawk-throwing righty Josh Collmenter of the Diamondbacks which has worked out pretty well so far. In 8 starts, he's 3-3 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 28 strikeouts (5.44 K/9). I'm thinking that he might be a sell-high candidate, though he's going to get plenty of turns against anemic west-coast offenses for the rest of the summer. Still, if I can get a solid bat for him, now would be the time before hitters get a book on him.

I'm also carrying 6 outfielders right now: Choo, Ethier, McLouth, Chris Denorfia, Ben Revere and Jon Jay. By the time the trade deadline comes around, it's possible that McLouth will be in a backup role as rumors are swirling that the Braves are looking to add an outfield bat. Jay is already losing playing time now that Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman and Colby Rasmus are all healthy. Revere will get playing time until Jason Kubel and Jim Thome come back, but he's impressed the Twins brass so far. I just don't know if I'll be able to pull myself out of the basement with Denorfia as a starting outfielder.

Speaking of the basement, I played AT&Love this week. As you may remember, this is the team that didn't show up for the draft and ended up with a really sorry squad. To his credit, dude has been trying the Dwight Schrute trading method to better his team, though there's really only so much talent you're going to get when you start with scrubs. Of course, he ended up with Alex Avila on draft day, then cut him and he has ended up being one of the few bright spots on my pathetic offense.

I ended up winning 8-4 despite some horrific pitching: my four losses were in the win and loss categories (3-8, ouch), ERA (5.49) and WHIP (1.43). My starters have not been as solid as they were earlier in the season. Kyle McClellan and Phil Coke just returned from the DL and aren't quite back in the groove yet. Dan Haren and Jon Lester have looked average at best. Jeff Francis is nearly useless away from Kaufman Stadium. Derek Holland is nearly useless at home. Collmenter has gotten tagged in his last two starts. The lone broght spot has been Erik Bedard, and who thought we'd be saying that this season? Besides me, of course.

I swept the offense categories, bringing home my first wins of the season in runs, homers and OPS. These were pretty much all squeakers though and a couple of bad breaks or wrong roster calls could have cost me the week. It's really sad that this lineup can barely beat an offense cobbled together from $1 draft day buys, waiver wire pickups and cast-offs from other teams.

I improve my ranking to 18th, 1/2 game up over the Love Rollercoasters and 17 games behind the division leader, Last Year's Champs. Halfway through our season and I've got a lot of work ahead of me. 8 teams make the playoffs, so I've got 10 teams to leapfrog if I'm going to have any chance. The bats need to wake up. Wish I had a hitting coach to fire so I could send a message to these guys...

The Darren O'Day Era is Over

Darren O'Day leaked his injury status to Facebook today and it turns out that his hip labrum is torn and will require surgery. I promptly took the opportunity to give him his limping papers. But who should replace him on the roster?

Punting saves doesn't mean ignoring opportunities to pick them up, hence why I took a flyer on O'Day in the first place. I just didn't want to spend draft dollars on closers and I'm not going to be heartbroken if I lose saves every week. Let's back up and take a look at the dollar values and April stats of the top ten (eleven, actually) highest paid closers:

Carlos Marmol, $25: 1-1, 5 SV, 15 K, 2.53 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (10.2 IP)
Mariano Rivera, $22: 1-0, 7 SV, 9 K, 2.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP (10.2 IP)
Heath Bell, $21: 1-0, 5 SV, 7 K, 0.90 ERA, 0.90 WHIP (10.0 IP)
Neftali Feliz, $20: 0-0, 5 SV, 6 K, 1.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP (8.1 IP) *injured*
Brian Wilson, $20: 0-1, 6 SV, 8 K, 8.64 ERA, 1.68 WHIP (8.1 IP)
Joakim Soria, $19: 1-0, 5 SV, 5 K, 5.59 ERA, 1.55 WHIP (9.2 IP)
Jonathan Papelbon, $19: 0-0, 5 SV, 11 K, 2.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP (8.1 IP)
John Axford, $18: 0-1, 5 SV, 11 K, 5.79 ERA, 1.61 WHIP (9.1 IP)
Jose Valverde, $18: 2-0, 5 SV, 9 K, 0.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP (9.2 IP)
Francisco Rodriguez, $17: 1-0, 5 SV, 13 K, 2.08 ERA, 1.73 WHIP (8.2 IP)
Matt Thornton, $17: 0-2, 0 SV, 7 K, 6.43 ERA, 2.43 WHIP (7.0 IP) *removed from closer role*

Marmol, Rivera, Bell, Papelbon and Valverde were clearly worth the investment. Feliz was doing well until he got hurt. K-Rod is converting saves and getting out of trouble, but that WHIP suggests that the situation could change at any time. Wilson, Soria and Axford have struggled but kept their jobs. Thornton has been a complete failure.

When you consider that the next two closers on the list are Jose Contreras (injured) and Jonathan Broxton (removed), that means only 5 of the 13 top drafted closers can be considered good investments. Makes me feel a lot better about spending my money on other guys. I just wish those guys were performing.

Anyway, since the available starting pitching in the free agent pool is, dare I say, crappy, I checked through the available list of middle relievers. Slim Jim dropped the Padres' Luke Gregerson, one of MLB's elite bullpen strikeout men. Unfortunately, he's on the waiver wire until Friday. While my waiver priority is only 15 out of 20, I don't want to go back to the back over a middle reliever. If he clears waivers, I'll probably pick him up. However, I could use a player now.

Enter Mark Melancon (pictured above). The former Yankee prospect was traded to Houston in the Lance Berkman deal last summer. So far this season, he's posted a 2-1 record, 0 saves, 10 Ks, 1.54 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 11.2 innings. Good numbers, but the most attractive thing about Melancon is that he's the set-up man behind Brandon Lyon, who has a tenuous grip on the Astros closer job (2-1, 4 SV, 4 K, 4.82 ERA, 1.82 WHIP in 9.1 innings). If Lyon loses the gig, Melancon is likely to take over as closer.

Which would explain why Last Year's Champ sent me two trade offers for him. LYC previously owned him and, ironically, Melancon's only loss this season directly contributed to my 6-5 victory two weeks ago. LYC also owns Brandon Lyon and clearly believes in the handcuff rule. He's not offering me much: one offer is a one-to-one trade for injured Indians starter Mitch Talbot, the other offer is Talbot, Joe Mauer (also injured) and Royals OF Melky Cabrera for Melancon, Jonny Venters and Adam Dunn. I'm not seriously considering either offer, but mostly just because I get an injured player (or two) back no matter what and I already have 3 full DL spots and 2 other injured players taking up spots on my bench.

Clearly LYC wants Melancon, so I'm thinking of making a counter-offer for a healthy player, maybe Angels catcher Hank Conger. But I'll probably keep him and hope he grabs the closer job. 2 or 3 saves in a week can be enough to win in this league, so one closer may be enough to compete.

Drubbed 1-9-2 (11-21-4 Overall)

Last week was a lot closer than the 1-9-2 record would indicate. I only lost runs and steals by one each and i tied homers and wins. A couple of breaks my way and, well, I still lose, but by a respectable 5-7 instead of this embarrassing 1-9-2. This beatdown drops me to 17th out of 20 and I'm starting to panic.

A panic that was evident in my impulse pickup of Darren O'Day. Rangers closer Neftali Feliz hit the DL on Saturday and the most likely candidates to get saves in his absence were the finesse righty O'Day and the ancient lefties Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes. I had one roster move left for the week and I gambled it on O'Day, who had been struggling (1.58 WHIP) but getting himself out of trouble (2.84 ERA). In fairness, O'Day's numbers over his past two seasons in Texas have been excellent: 1.93 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 7.53 K/9, 101/30 K/BB ratio. Oliver's numbers over the same span are good too: 2.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.69 K/9, 130/37 K/BB.

So why did I pick O'Day over Oliver? (Rhodes was already taken, BTW.) Simple: he's younger, right-handed and has been ridiculously effective for two years straight. But my first instinct was to take Oliver and I went with O'Day instead. I questioned my gut, did a ton of research, checked the local rags for the Rangers beat writers' reporting, read the expert opinions, blah, blah, blah. I talked myself into O'Day out of panic and fear, knowing that Oliver was going to get the gig (even though it hadn't come out of Ron Washington's mouth yet). That night, Darren Oliver got the call in the 9th and converted the save. The next morning, a smarter manager grabbed Oliver. The next night Rhodes got the call. And today it came out that O'Day's been battling hip soreness for the last week or so. So I'm stuck with a struggling, hurt middle reliever with a mid-80s fastball.

Want to know the depth of my panic? Casey McGehee sprained his thumb Monday night in a collision at first base with Joey Votto while trying to leg out an infield single to keep a 9th inning rally alive. No word how long he'll be out. I don't have a backup for him and I'm actually considering giving ex-Angel and new Pirate SS/3B Brandon Wood a shot. Wood was my Opening Day third baseman last year and I endured his pathetic offensive output for over a month before I started up the revolving door at 3B. Now I might be back for more. I should change the name of my team to Battered Wife Syndrome.

After 3 weeks last year, I was 20-14-2. I feel like this team has more talent than last year's squad, but I'm just not getting any breaks. Adam Dunn is 5-for-43 (.116) with 21 Ks since his appendectomy. Shin-Soo Choo has hits in 8 of his last 10 games, but is hitting just .225 over that span. I know I took some chances on untested guys (Kila Ka'aihue, Phil Coke, Kyle Drabek) and some guys I hoped would bounce back (Aaron Hill, Nate McLouth, Erik Bedard), but I thought I had them balanced against enough sure bets (Dunn, Choo, Andre Ethier, Jon Lester, Dan Haren) that I'd still be able to compete. I have serious doubts.

Peace.

A day after I espoused the notion that starting pitching, no matter how terrible, is invaluable in a 20-team league, I'm sending James McDonald packing.

0-2, 10.13 ERA, 1.98 WHIP and 12 Ks in 18-2/3 innings (4 starts). He only made it out of the 5th inning once. With any pitcher, there's always a chance he could give me a couple of solid starts or even completely turn it around, but I don't see it in the cards. His fastball velocity is down about 5 mph from last fall and, well, he still pitches for the Pirates, so the W-L record is going to be suspect.

Picked up 2B Daniel Murphy from the Mets, just in case Aaron Hill hits the DL. MRI on Hill's leg was inconclusive.

However, this still leaves me short on starting pitching. Well, short for me since I'm punting saves. I've got nine active starters and three more on the DL (Brandon Webb, Andrew Cashner and Justin Duchscherer) but none of them are close to returning. Cashner would be first as he's starting his rehab throwing program today. The reports on Webb are mildly encouraging, but the guy hasn't pitched in the bigs in over two years AND he recently told a reporter that he'd take a relief role if that's all there was for him. He might be onto something there, as the Rangers rotation looks pretty good apart from Colby Lewis' early struggles. Duchscherer was recently transferred to the 60-day DL, though it was primarily a move to free a spot on the 40-man roster. There's no good timetable for his return.

As expected, the free agent/waiver market is barren. The only available guy with a start in the next four days is Brad Bergesen, but he's pitching against the Yankees. No deal.