The All-Chin Music Team

Obviously my attempt to re-start this blog with tons of analysis fell on its head. I actually did all the statistical analysis - what responsible fantasy player wouldn't? - but I really just didn't have the time to do the writing like I thought I would.

Anyway, I'm in two leagues this year. One is a 15-team mixed league 5x5 roto that I'm commish-ing and the other is the 20-team mixed 6x6 head-to-head I've been in forever. The roto league was a standard snake draft (I picked 13th) and the head-to-head is an auction league. On the doorstep of Opening Day (and after almost a dozen roster moves in each league), I'll run down the dudes that I grabbed at each position with a quick breakdown. My strategy in both leagues was more or less the same: grab a big infield bat early (or for mucho dinero), don't overspend in the OF, don't worry about position scarcity, get starters with high K/9 and low WHIP, don't spend early picks or big bucks on saves.

As you're about to see, I'm big fans of a handful of guys this year, enough so that I specifically targeted them for both of my teams. Let's take a look at who ended up on my squads:

CATCHER
Roto: Jonathan Lucroy (free agent)
H2H: Chris Iannetta ($2)

I actually drafted John Buck with my final pick, but picked up Lucroy because I think he's due for a step up offensively. I didn't want to go $2 on a catcher, but there weren't a lot of palatable options left that late in the draft. I really hope he hits in Anaheim.

FIRST BASE
Roto: Prince Fielder (1st round)
H2H: Chris Parmelee (free agent)

There aren't too many bigger infield bats than Fielder (literally), and he actually slipped to me at 13th overall, so I feel like I caught a break there. I was prepared to take Justin Verlander until Prince fell in my lap. Parmelee is a guy who raked in the minors, had a decent cup of coffee last fall and tore up spring training. With Justin Morneau opting to DH, Parmelee's in line for a lot of AB's to show off his potential.

SECOND BASE
Roto: Mike Aviles (19th round)
H2H: Ian Kinsler ($47)

2B was looking pretty slim by the time I called Aviles's name. I had been loading up on corner infielders and pitchers, so I was a little desperate. I like Aviles's upside, but he's never converted on it in the last 3 years. Price inflation is rampant in a 20-team auction and $47 was probably way too much to spend on the injury-prone Kinsler. If he stays healthy all year, he'll be worth it.

THIRD BASE
Roto: Pablo Sandoval (3rd round)
H2H: Miguel Cabrera ($61)

I love Kung Fu Panda, even if the RBIs aren't there in the anemic Giants lineup. He still hits for acceptable power with great average and OPS numbers. I spent the most money on a player in the auction and it was two days after Cabrera took a bad hop that broke his face. He'll be ready for Opening Day, he'll be 3B-eligible in about a week... no brainer.

SHORTSTOP
Roto: Dee Gordon (6th round)
H2H: Dee Gordon ($22)

I officially reached twice for Dee Gordon. I almost never draft steals because the players who get them for you are either overvalued five-tool guys or one-dimensional players who hurt the rest of your stats. Gordon is probably closer to the latter, but he could lead the league in steals, score 90+ runs and hit in the .280-.290 range. I think I have enough homers, RBIs and OPS to counterbalance Gordon's deficiencies.

OUTFIELD 1
Roto: Shin-Soo Choo (5th round)
H2H: Matt Joyce ($5)

I'm banking on Choo to have a bounce-back season. Last year he was racked with injuries and a DUI arrest. He should be poised to post another 20-20 effort. Spending big bucks on Cabrera and Kinsler didn't leave me much of a budget for outfielders. Matt Joyce has a career .828 OPS, so grabbing him for $5 seems like a great deal as long as he gets regular AB's.

OUTFIELD 2
Roto: Kendrys Morales (7th round)
H2H: Kendrys Morales ($13)

The roto pick on Morales was probably my most egregious reach, but I am 100% sold on his health and potential. The $13 price tag seems like a steal for a guy who hit 34 homers in 2009 and was on pace to hit 30+ in 2010 before the freak leg injury that robbed him of a year-and-a-half. My original plan was to play him at 1B once Cabrera became 3B eligible, but the Parmelee pickup will let Morales bolster my potentially weak outfield (assuming Parmelee hits).

OUTFIELD 3
Roto: Bryan LaHair (16th round)
H2H: Bryan LaHair ($4)

Here's to hoping LaHair isn't the Quad-A player that people think he is. Dude has hit 159 homers in 9 minor league seasons (including 38 last year) and Theo Epstein says he's legit. I'd like to see him get a shot at socking some balls out of Wrigley, though he does have Anthony Rizzo breathing down his neck and he's dealing with a back issue at the end of Spring Training.

UTILITY
Roto: Mark Reynolds (9th round)
H2H: David Ortiz ($18)

I couldn't let 35 homer potential slip away, even if it does come with one of the predictably worst batting averages in the bigs. Reynolds was my only real batting average risk, and I hedged my bet with a later pick (which I'll explain in a bit). Ortiz goes at a discount every year not only due to his inflexibility of position, but also because haters gonna hate. He's not going to put up steroid-era numbers, but I'll take .275-25-95 at this price tag any day.

BENCH 1
Roto: Ike Davis (11th round)
H2H: Alberto Callaspo ($1)

Davis is the afore-mentioned hedge bet. If the Valley Fever diagnosis ends up being not too detrimental, Davis could be an everyday player in my lineup. He was on pace for a .300-28-100 season last year until he was derailed by injury. If he doesn't show that potential, I still have Reynolds. Callaspo was the best 3B option on the board in the late going and I needed somebody to man it until Cabrera could move across the diamond. He should see AB's in the powerful Angels lineup at least until Mark Trumbo proves he can play there every day.

BENCH 2
Roto: Jason Kubel (17th round)
H2H: Jon Jay ($1)

I'm expecting Kubel to take full advantage of his new hitter-friendly environment in Arizona. He could end up being a mid-round steal. Jay is one of the few repeat offenders from last year's 18th place squad: I picked him up as a free agent once Colby Rasmus was traded to the Blue Jays. This year Jay's playing time is in question with the acquisition of Carlos Beltran and the health and effectiveness of Allen Craig. He might get pushed out of a job even though he's a solid contributor with the bat and glove.

BENCH 3
Roto: Eric Thames (free agent)
H2H: Juan Uribe (free agent)

Thames won the competition against Travis Snider for Toronto's starting left field job. He showed a pretty healthy stroke in the latter half of 2011 and could score a fair amount of runs in the potent Blue Jay lineup. Uribe will primarily serve as a backup/insurance policy in case Ian Kinsler gets hurt. That is, assuming he hits as LA's third baseman. He has good power upside, but is coming off the worst year of his career. I originally drafted Daniel Descalso to be a utility infielder, but I don't think he brings anything at the dish. At least Uribe could knock a few balls out.

STARTING PITCHER 1
Roto: Roy Halladay (2nd round)
H2H: Dan Haren ($30)

I had 5 starters identified as difference makers and when Verlander and Clayton Kershaw came off the board back-to-back ahead of me, I figured I'd have to act fast to get one of them. Halladay is such a workhorse that he'll get you the K numbers you want even if his K/9 isn't as high as other elite pitchers. No innings max in the roto league, so I'll take him. Haren was probably the best player on last year's squad and I gladly paid $30 to take him again (though I got him for $20 in 2011).

STARTING PITCHER 2
Roto: Stephen Strasburg (4th round)
H2H: Josh Johnson ($21)

Strasburg was the last of the 5 impact starters on my list and I felt I needed to take him in the 4th round since I didn't think he'd be there 25 picks later. He'll be innings capped at 160, but should be able to post some hellacious numbers while active. Josh Johnson was an unmitigated ace from 2009 until an injury ended his 2011 season. He's looked just as sharp as before so far this spring, so $21 seems reasonable if he gives me 180 innings.

STARTING PITCHER 3
Roto: Brandon Beachy (8th round)
H2H: Brandon Beachy ($15)

I probably reached for Beachy, but I love his strikeout potential. I just hope that the ERA and WHIP he posted last year are typical and not rookie phenom numbers. He hasn't looked very good this spring, but you can never trust spring stats. In a vastly improved NL East (except the Mets, of course) this was a big gamble in both leagues.

STARTING PITCHER 4
Roto: Cory Luebke (12th round)
H2H: Chris Sale ($6)

Luebke impressed last year, posting gaudy ratio numbers but taking it on the chin in wins and losses due to the weak Padres offense. Shockingly, Luebke's road numbers were better than his Petco Park stats, which bodes well. Sale is a converted reliever with nasty strikeout stuff. He may only be good for 160-180 innings this year but should help in the first 2/3 of the head-to-head season.

STARTING PITCHER 5
Roto: Daniel Bard (15th round)
H2H: Johan Santana ($3)

Bard survived the audition to win a spot in the Boston rotation. As a reliever he was primarily a fastball-slider pitcher, so he will need to develop his changeup and right quick if he expects to stick around. Santana hasn't thrown a pitch in a big league game since 2010, but you know his track record before he lost a year to injury. His velocity is down, but his out pitch was always the changeup so as long as the control and deception (and health) is there, he should be well worth $3.

RELIEF PITCHER 1
Roto: Rafael Betancourt (10th round)
H2H: Henry Rodriguez (free agent)

I didn't exactly stick to the script with Betancourt, using a 10th round pick on him. Several other closers had come off the board and I had my eye on him due to his high K/9 and low WHIP rates. In the H2H, I spent all of $2 on two relief pitchers and dropped one - Jesse Crain - when it seemed apparent he wasn't going to win the White Sox closer job from Matt Thornton. Rodriguez has been tearing it up this spring and looks like he might get a couple save looks while Drew Storen is out.

RELIEF PITCHER 2
Roto: Matt Thornton (13th round)
H2H: Glen Perkins ($1)

I drafted Thornton in this league last year and he fully imploded. He finished strong in a set-up role last year and I think that if he wins the closer job (fingers crossed) he'll be fine. Perkins is the set-up man to Matt Capps in Minnesota. That's a question of "when," not "if," Capps loses his gig and Perkins ascends.

RELIEF PITCHER 3
Roto: Jonathan Broxton (free agent)
H2H: Brad Lidge (free agent)

The roto league drafted a couple days before Joakim Soria was declared out for the season. I scooped up the seemingly rejuvenated Broxton who should at least get the first look at the ninth inning on an improved Royals team. Lidge is the other half of the stop-gap solution in Washington until Storen returns. Rodriguez has looked better this spring, but Lidge has the resume and Davey Johnson isn't a maverick manager.

RELIEF PITCHER 4
Roto: Joel Peralta (free agent)
H2H: Joel Peralta (free agent)

This is why you don't pay for saves. Kyle Farnsworth seemed safe in Tampa Bay but had a flare-up of elbow soreness and is expected to miss some time. Of all the characters in the Rays 'pen - including former closers J.P. Howell and Fernando Rodney - Peralta has the best stuff, the best track record and the trust of his manager. If Farnsworth is out for an extended period, Peralta is extremely valuable.

PITCHING DEPTH
Roto: Erik Bedard (18th round)
Roto: Gavin Floyd (20th round)
Roto: Jonathan Sanchez (21st round)
Roto: Greg Holland (free agent)
H2H: Ted Lilly ($2)
H2H: Chris Narveson ($1)
H2H: Dillon Gee ($1)
H2H: Lance Lynn ($1)

Same old story: get those strikeouts, keep the WHIP down, ignore wins and losses. Holland is the only reliever on the list because I don't trust Broxton yet. Lance Lynn is intriguing, though I don't think he'll stick in the rotation once Chris Carpenter returns.

DL STASHES:
Roto: Allen Craig (24th round)
Roto: Mike Carp (free agent)
Roto: Brett Anderson (free agent)

I picked Craig up late because I wasn't sure about Aviles at 2B. He's obviously got better power upside but health is a big factor. Carp ended up in the free agent pool after he separated his shoulder in the Japan series. Could provide some cheap outfield power. Anderson won't be activated until August at least, but looked like an ace-in-the-making before his Tommy John surgery last year.

DRAFTED AND RELEASED:
Roto: Addison Reed (14th round)
Roto: Alfredo Aceves (22nd round)
Roto: Glen Perkins (23rd round)
Roto: John Buck (25th round)
H2H: Josh Reddick ($1)
H2H: Daniel Descalso ($1)
H2H: Jesse Crain ($1)
H2H: John Lannan ($1)
H2H: Felix Doubront ($1)

I dropped Reed when he was ruled out of the White Sox closer race, even though he'll probably end up with that job before the year's out. I dropped Aceves when he lost out on the Boston rotation. Now he's in the mix for saves in Andrew Bailey's absence. That will probably end up being the dumbest move I make this year. Eh, I can probably do dumber. I dumped Reddick for Parmelee, but not before I got a homer out of him in Japan. Lannan got the boot speculatively for Joel Peralta, and shortly thereafter I read that Lannan was sent to Triple-A. That will look like a really smart move, but I was lucky more than than anything.

2012 First Base Rankings

Look out behind you, Albert. You've got company.

Albert Pujols signed the third $200+ million contract in MLB history (the first two belong to Alex Rodriguez) and will be anchoring first base in Anaheim for the foreseeable future. There's little doubt that Pujols is worthy of a $25 million salary for the next 3-4 years, given his historic production over the past eleven.

But upon signing with the Angels, the "player in decline" rhetoric that has floated around Pujols for the last few seasons got turned up to 11: he's locked up until age 41 and they'll owe him around $30 million in the final year of the contract. I've heard that the end was nigh for Pujols every spring after his sub-par (for him) 2007 campaign. All he's done since is hit .323 and average 41 homers, 117 RBI and 111 runs in the last 4 seasons. I have no doubt that Albert will make the transition to the American League with no difficulty and put up another typical Pujols year. If I had first pick in my fantasy draft, I'd probably take him...

...if it weren't for Miguel Cabrera moving to third base. The former Tiger first baseman - supplanted by the newest member of the $200 million club, Prince Fielder - has been the steadiest of ships over his 9 year career. Banking on a .320 average, 30-35 homers, 110-120 RBI and around 100 runs this season is one of the easiest bets you could make, especially since he'll be hitting ahead of Fielder in the Detroit lineup. He'd be the second first baseman on my board behind Pujols, but when you add in the 3B eligibility, he becomes far and away the top player available.

So what does Fielder's debut season in Detroit hold? I don't see a reason to think that there will be a major drop-off from his last three seasons. Comerica Park does tend to punish left-handed power a bit, but Prince wasn't exactly hitting wall-scraping homers in Milwaukee. He should hit somewhere around 30-35 homers and drive in a ton of runs, though I have some reservations about the rest of the lineup behind him being able to drive him in. The big gaps at Comerica do actually help a big, lumbering runner like Fielder as he can smack a lot of doubles and score a little easier from second than he would in a smaller park.

Heavy speculation that Joey Votto will be the next member of that exclusive $200 million club. He's in his last year with the Reds and has put up impressive (if not spectacular) numbers over the past 3 seasons, including his 2010 MVP campaign. I don't believe in walk-year bumps, and especially not from guys with a temperament like Votto's. I do expect a season that should look suspiciously like Miguel Cabrera's and you can grab him in the mid-to-late first round. Not a bad deal.

Adrian Gonzalez's first season with the Red Sox was a huge success as he set career highs in hits, runs, batting average and on-base percentage. Clearly, he has benefited from getting out of Petco Park and into a much more friendly hitting environment. I'd expect something close to a repeat of last year's numbers, especially if the team can come together under new manager Bobby Valentine. During Boston's horrendous September stretch, A-Gone drew 21 walks (6 of them intentional), a sure sign that opposing pitchers were more than happy to face someone else in the scuffling Sox lineup.

Yankee first baseman Mark Teixeira has seen a marked decline in batting average over his last three seasons in the Bronx. He still hits a solid .295 against lefties over that span, but the switch-hitter has posted a .287, .247, and .223 against righties and an exaggerated defensive shift. In response, Teixeira has dropped 15 pounds of fat over the offseason and is even talking about bunting against the shift to try to raise his average. He would really only need to do it a couple of times before teams would go back to a traditional defensive alignment, which should help his average get closer to his career .281 mark.

Second Tier:
Paul Konerko - White Sox
Michael Morse - Nationals
Eric Hosmer - Royals
Mark Reynolds - Orioles
Michael Young - Rangers
Mike Napoli - Rangers

Konerko will be 36 years old on opening day. Pundits have loudly announced the end of his career on several occasions, and eventually they're going to be right. I just don't think it'll be this year. He just about single-handedly carried the Chicago offense last year, and I find it hard to believe that they'll look that bad this season.

One of the few smart projections I made last year was on Michael Morse. I saw a big power year, but not much else. All he did was hit 31 homers and back it up with a .303 average and 95 RBIs. I'd like to see a little more plate discipline this year, but I think Morse will have a solid follow-up to his breakout year with the Nationals.

The hate has been flowing against Eric Hosmer this spring, but I can't really put my finger on why. The biggest hole I see in his game is his relative inability to hit lefties, which may lose him some at-bats to Billy Butler. Still, I don't think righties have a book on him yet, so Hosmer's worth a shot, but I wouldn't count on him as an anchor yet.

Mark Reynolds slides into the second tier on power alone. There's no mystery to this guy's game: go yard or go home. Reynolds has a home run, a walk, or a strikeout in over half of his plate appearances. Rob Deer would be so proud. On the plus side, 2011 was the first season since 2007 that he did not lead the majors in strikeouts: Drew Stubbs topped him, 205-196.

During last year's spring camp, everyone expected the Rangers to trade Michael Young, assuming that the acquisition of Adrian Beltre would squeeze him out of playing time. Instead Young accepted a utility/DH role and tied for the league lead in hits. Expect more of the same (though with a batting average closer to his career .304 mark) in this high-octane offense.


Third Tier:
Kendrys Morales - Angels
Mark Trumbo - Angels
Howie Kendrick - Angels
Kevin Youkilis - Red Sox
Billy Butler - Royals
Carlos Pena - Rays
Michael Cuddyer - Rockies
Nick Swisher - Yankees

The Angels' logjam at 1B/LF/RF/DH seems like a ticking time bomb. Obviously Pujols isn't going anywhere, so that leaves Morales, Trumbo, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu vying for 3 lineup spots. Morales still has to prove that he's healthy, but if he does he'll suck up a fair number of DH at-bats due to his surgically repaired ankle. Trumbo is learning how to play third base, but he'll have to really show something to push natural 3Bs Alberto Callaspo and Maicer Izturis out of playing time, even though Trumbo has the best bat of the trio. Abreu appears to be the odd man out, but his contract is unmovable.

This might be Kevin Youkilis's "phoenix from the ashes" season. He's been plagued by injuries the last two years, but still managed to put up respectable numbers. At 33, he's probably got one more great campaign in him, but I wouldn't reach too far to get him this year.

Everyone seems content to believe that Billy Butler's power ceiling is about 20 homers. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that's his floor. He'll turn 26 in April and he hit for much better power last year down the stretch when the Royals were clicking on offense.

The Rays got their franchise home run leader back in Carlos Pena. He'll have free reign to swing for the fences, and with Tampa's talented table-setters hitting in front of him, he should be able to post some respectable counting numbers.

I'll cover Kendrick and Cuddyer more in-depth when I rank second basemen (Cuddyer will be a right fielder in Colorado, but is still 2B eligible and holds higher fantasy value there) and Swisher will get his due when I rank outfielders.


Question Marks:
Lance Berkman - Cardinals
Ryan Howard - Phillies
Ike Davis - Mets
Lucas Duda - Mets
Gaby Sanchez - Marlins
Adam Lind - Blue Jays
Paul Goldschmidt - Diamondbacks
Freddie Freeman - Braves
Justin Morneau - Twins
Adam LaRoche - Nationals
Adam Dunn - White Sox

Berkman had his "phoenix rising from the ashes" season last year, and I think a lot of people are expecting a steep regression from the 36 year-old.

Howard may not return from his freak Achilles injury until mid-to-late May. He should put up good numbers, but obviously his value takes a hit with all the missed time.

Ike Davis just cannot catch a break. He was well on his way to posting a statement season when he rolled his ankle and lost most of 2011 to injury. Now, it's being reported that he's contracted valley fever, a fungal infection that causes flu-like symptoms and can nag for months. So far, the Mets don't seem concerned, but their young 1B might start to think he's cursed.

The improved Miami Marlins lineup should benefit Sanchez in the RBI column, but the organization doesn't have a whole lot of confidence in him as a long term answer at first base.

Is Adam Lind ever going to show the same plate discipline that he did in his 2009 career year? I really doubt it, but the power is still there in bunches.

The starting 1B gig in Arizona belongs to Goldschmidt, but he needs to show the same combo of power and discipline that he did in the minors. Easy enough to say when you play in the same division as Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum.

Freddie Freeman is the guy experts point to as having the same general profile as Eric Hosmer, but going later in drafts. Good opportunity to get value here, though keep an eye on his recently dislocated kneecap.

The concussion Justin Morneau sustained in 2010 seems to have fundamentally changed the former MVP, so much so that he's openly considering retirement if he can't get himself right. I'm not expecting much from him this year, but I'd like to be surprised.

Adam LaRoche was a remarkably consistent performer until last year's attempt to play through a torn labrum torpedoed his season. It remains to be seen if he's recovered from surgery, but there could be sleeper value here.

Adam Dunn put up what very well may be the single worst season of baseball that any hitter has ever had. He was mercifully held out of games at the end of the season so that he wouldn't qualify for the batting title: he would have obliterated the record for lowest qualified batting average, besting (worsting?) Rob Deer's .179 mark by 20 points. Nothing about Dunn's struggles last year made any sense. While he was always a free-swinger, he still showed a pretty sharp batting eye, drawing 75 walks. There was just no contact. Hopefully the regime shake-up on the south side will be fruitful for Dunn and he can regain some of the form that he lost.

2012 Catcher Rankings

Get used to that sight: Mike Napoli admiring another moon shot.

Power has never been a question for the Rangers' backstop, but age might become one soon. Napoli turned 30 last Halloween, and if your last name isn't Molina, that usually signals the downslope of a catcher's career. I'm not expecting a precipitous decline this season - though I think last year's .320 batting average will be pretty tough to match - but he probably has about 2 or 3 more monster power years in him. He's also got a pretty tragic injury history, losing significant parts of 3 seasons including last year. Not to mention that he's coming off a sprained ankle sustained in the World Series that was still troubling him at the beginning of spring camp. Still, Napoli's at the top of my list, though you can really only expect about 100-120 games out of him.

The Indians' Carlos Santana shares the top tier of my list with Napoli. Santana came off his own devastating injury in 2010 to post an impressive season last year. There's still a fair amount of room for him to improve (especially in batting average and defense), but he demonstrated a good eye at the plate (97 walks in 658 plate appearances) and a powerful bat. I see about the same production out of Santana this year as last - he put up a .239 average with 27 homers, 79 RBI and 84 runs scored - and is probably a safer choice than Napoli if you're trying to decide between the two. I personally give the edge to Napoli on the chance that he might stay healthy all year, in which case the counting numbers should be staggering.

If you don't feel like gambling on follow-ups to Napoli's career year or Santana's breakout campaign, think about Brian McCann. The Braves' backstop has been remarkably consistent over his 6 full seasons, batting at a .287 clip and averaging 22 homers, 86 RBIs and 60 runs over that span. There's no reason to believe that he's in for a regression. In fact, at 28 years old, he may be primed for his best season in 2012.

Miguel Montero is in close to the same boat as McCann: a solid catcher who will help your squad across the board. He doesn't excel in any one category, but is overall above average at the position. I'm projecting a .275/15/65/60 floor for the season, though if the D-Backs improved offense clicks together, he's poised to do some real damage.

Last year, I was understandably cautious about Joe Mauer. He was coming off of arthroscopic knee surgery (you never want to hear about catchers with knee trouble) and ended up missing the first half of the season. In the second half, he caught pneumonia and was sapped of health, strength and effectiveness. A disaster year for the former MVP and 3-time batting champion. This spring, Mauer arrived to Twins camp 30 pounds heavier than at the end of last season - back to his typical 235 - and ready to put last year's disappointment behind him. A healthy Mauer, even in the power-sucking Target Field environment, is still capable of a return to form. Lot of fantasy experts out there saying not to touch him, so he could be an excellent value since I suspect he'll fall pretty far in drafts. Just don't expect any kind of power: 5-10 HR, tops.

Second Tier:
Buster Posey - Giants
Alex Avila - Tigers
Matt Wieters - Orioles
J.P. Arencibia - Blue Jays

Posey is only down here because we need to see how he bounces back from that gruesome injury last year. He had a stellar rookie campaign, but wasn't really showing much in 2011 before he got hurt.

Avila had a breakout year last year and needs to prove it was no fluke. He'll have the job all to himself in 2012: Victor Martinez (who started behind the plate against lefties, when healthy) will miss the entire season with a torn ACL.

Three seasons into the Matt Wieters Era and he keeps showing us more and more. I don't know if he's ready to jump into the top tier yet, but one more year like 2011 and it'll be a no-brainer.

Arencibia is an interesting case. He clubbed 23 homers last year, but struck out 133 times in 443 at-bats en route to a .219 average. With the defensively superior prospect Travis d'Arnaud breathing down his neck, he is going to have to mash to keep his job.


Third Tier:
Wilson Ramos - Nationals
Yadier Molina - Cardinals
Salvador Perez - Royals
Carlos Ruiz - Phillies
A.J. Pierzynski - White Sox

Ramos had a solid rookie season and is a bright spot on a Nats team I expect to perform much better than the 2011 edition.

Molina just signed a 5 year/$75 million dollar contract extension, which means the Cards place a much higher value on him than I do. Defense doesn't count in fantasy.

The Royals just locked up their 21 year-old backstop through 2019. Perez impressed down the stretch with the big club last year, hitting .331 in 148 at-bats.

Ruiz is more or less an inconsistent copy of Molina, but playing half your games in Philly is a clear boost to fantasy value.

I hate Pierzynski, but he finds a way to hit for average every year. At age 35, I hope he finally crashes and burns this year.


Question Marks:
Jesus Montero - Mariners
Geovany Soto - Cubs
Chris Iannetta - Angels
Devin Mesoraco - Reds
Russell Martin - Yankees
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Red Sox
Jonathan Lucroy - Brewers

Former Yankee prospect Jesus Montero will suit up for the M's this year and don the catcher's gear for at least a few games when he's not DHing or doing time at 1B (he's currently not C-eligible in Yahoo leagues, by the way). The bat is supposedly big league ready, but it'll be interesting to see how the time split works between him and Miguel Olivo (who clubbed 19 homers last year, including 10 at hitter-unfriendly Safeco Field).

Which Soto will show up on the north side this year: 2010's disciplined slugger, or 2011's free-swinging mess?

Iannetta gets the change of scenery and the starting job he needed, but will his power proclivity make the trip from Colorado to Anaheim as well?

Dusty Baker isn't committing to his hyped young catcher yet, so it's hard to predict Mesoraco's upside with veteran Ryan Hanigan still in the picture for playing time.

Russell Martin's resurgence with the Yankees in 2011 was certainly unexpected, but can he do it again? I think his only fantasy value would be in AL-only or deep mixed leagues or as a back up to an injury-prone star catcher.

Saltalamacchia posted 4 solid months from May-August, but book-ended them with an abysmal April and September. With slugging prospect Ryan Lavarnway just about ready for prime time, how long can you count on Salty?

I have really nothing to back this up, but I think Lucroy might be ready to take the next step offensively. He'll be 26 in June and as long as he can build and maintain trust from the starting pitchers, he could give you a solid effort in 2012.

Braun Wins Appeal

According to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Ryan Braun had his 50-game PED suspension overturned. The exonerated NL MVP had been bumped down many draft boards, but is now probably a safe 1st-round pick yet again.

2012 PROJECTION: .315 BA, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 95 R, 20 SB, .925 OPS

It's yet to be seen how the loss of Prince Fielder and the addition of Aramis Ramirez to the Brewer lineup will impact Braun's numbers, but I have a feeling that he'll find a way to get to this projection without too much struggle.


UPDATE:

So the courier didn't take Braun's sample directly to FedEx and instead kept it in his fridge before sending it to the lab. I'm sure while it was in the fridge some of the courier's giant vat of synthetic testosterone accidentally spilled into Braun's pee. Consider the projection above to be a ceiling, not a floor...

Mannyball

Manny Ramirez, only the second major-leaguer to be busted twice for performance-enhancing drugs* and the first to be handed a 100-game suspension, signed a minor-league deal with the Oakland Athletics. He will receive an invitation to spring training where he will have the opportunity to make the major league club before serving his reduced 50-game sentence. Assuming he makes the team, Manny will be allowed to play in extended spring training games during his suspension, so he should be able to keep his skill set relatively sharp.

So what is Manny Ramirez worth in the fantasy game?

First of all, let's talk history. Manny has a career .312 batting average, which puts him in 9th place among all active MLB hitters. He's a 12-time All-Star, has 9 Silver Slugger awards, 555 homers (14th all-time), 1,831 RBI (18th all-time), a .585 slugging percentage and a .996 OPS (each 9th best all-time). If not for the 2 PED suspensions and the third positive test that MLB never acted on, he'd be a nearly unanimous first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. But alas...

The last we saw of Manny was his 5 game stint in Tampa before the announcement of his 100-game suspension and subsequent retirement. He had 1 hit in 17 at-bats, which is one more major league hit than most of us will ever get. Prior to that, Manny hadn't hit under .290 since his rookie season in 1994, a streak of 16 seasons in Cleveland, Boston, Chavez Ravine and the south side of Chicago. There were a lot of things Manny couldn't do - field his position, get along with management, join his world champion teammates at the White House, keep from abusing his wife, stay off the juice - but hitting the ball was never in doubt.

Even at 40 years old (which he will be when his suspension is over) and over a year removed from his last MLB at-bat, I have little doubt that Manny will find a way to get hits. The real question is, how many chances will the A's give him? Billy Beane has stockpiled outfielders and first basemen, and unless there's a way to put more than 5 of those guys in the lineup every day, someone's going to lose at-bats. Manny was a liability in the outfield in his prime, so there's no way that he touches grass at his current age.

Seth Smith, Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick are the frontrunners for outfield jobs left-to-right. Yoenis Cespedes should push one of those guys out when the club decides he's MLB-ready, which could be as early as Opening Day. Colin Cowgill, Jonny Gomes and a few talented farmhands are competing to make the club out of spring training. Then there's the 4-headed logjam at first base between Daric Barton, Chris Carter, Brandon Allen and Kila Ka'aihue. When Manny shows up in late May, something's got to give.

Is Manny a better DH option than Seth Smith or Josh Reddick? Can you play percentages with Manny? Does he fit in a platoon role? Part of the signing is to help boost attendance. Manny = money, even though you don't have to pay him a dime over $306K. Nobody expects Oakland to contend this year given the Angels and the Rangers loaded squads, but do you let Manny take at-bats away from the talent you're trying to develop so you can contend 2-3 years from now?

If he ends up being Oakland's everyday DH and stays healthy, I think Manny's capable of a .285, 10 HR, 55 RBI season over about 300 at-bats. Probably worth a $1 or a late-round flyer if you have a deep bench and can afford to stash him for two months. However, if a couple of the A's outfield is reasonably productive through May, there would be intense pressure to keep Manny on the pine or cut him outright.

It's as unpredictable as, well, Manny.

*Neifi Perez, of all people, was the other. He hit .172 with 1 home run the year he was suspended twice (2007).

2012

Cannot wait for this season to start.  It's been far too long and I need to make up for last year's awful showing.

Thinking about taking this blog in another direction, something a little less "me-centric".  Haven't put all the pieces together just yet.  Stay tuned...

Superstition

^Kinda surprised he can lift his arm this high.

Brandon Webb felt discomfort in his surgically repaired right shoulder and was shut down in his rehab assignment. In an interview with the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, when asked if he would be able to come back Webb said "How many times can you do it? Who knows? I have no idea." One gets the impression that Webb is done for this season and probably for the rest of his career.

You can't fault a guy for taking a chance on Webb. After all, he did spend six seasons dominating hitters with a virtually unhittable sinker. He never had breathtaking velocity, but the movement on that sinker fooled enough hitters that he was able to post 1,065 strikeouts in a little over 1,300 innings. Even when they made contact, Webb was able to minimize the damage: he induced over 64% of opposing batters into ground balls from 2003-2008, leading all major league pitchers over that span.

So it's reasonable to think that Webb could make a comeback and regain some of his previous form. Maybe he wouldn't be the dominating pitcher he once was, but if he could continue to get grounders and keep the ball in the yard (only Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw have given up fewer HR/9 since 2003) he'd be a valuable asset to a winning team in Texas. And medical science has progressed to the point where a pitcher's arm can be rebuilt almost to better condition than before an injury, so why not spend $2 on Brandon Webb on draft day?

As it turns out, Webb's shoulder is not okay even after two years on the sidelines recuperating from surgery. He's been knocked around in his few rehab starts at the Single- and Double-A levels. Now, he's shut down indefinitely with soreness in his shoulder and we may have seen the last of the best sinkerball pitcher of the last 20 years.

I've been carrying Brandon Webb on my DL since opening day, hoping that he'd make a return to the bigs and help my virtual ball club. But I'm starting to think that maybe Webb's struggles - and the delusional thought process that led me to stick with him and other stiffs on my squad - are what has been keeping my team near the cellar all season. Maybe Webb's injury caused Adam Dunn's burst appendix, Shin-Soo Choo's broken hand, Erik Bedard's strained knee. Maybe I'm running an infirmary and not a fantasy baseball team. It sounds crazy and it is, but other than bad luck and coincidence, I can only believe that it's either Webb's fault or the entire universe is out to get me.

So, happy trails Brandon Webb. I really do hope that you're able to come back and be an effective major league pitcher again. But more so, I hope somebody else in this league picks you up and stashes you away so they can inherit your curse.