It's All Downhill From Here

Wednesday night's Ugueth League auction draft was, quite simply, bonkers. With 20 teams, price inflation is an expected part of the game. There's only so much elite talent to go around and if you want the edge, you've got to pay for it. In last year's draft, 4 players commanded salaries of $52 or more: Albert Pujols ($57), Hanley Ramirez ($55) Ryan Braun ($52) and Ryan Howard ($52). Each team gets $260 to spend, so dropping 20% or more of your budget on one player is a generally risky move. Improbably, in the 2010 draft, Pujols and HanRam were both drafted by the same team; they finished 7th.

In the 2011 draft, 10 players earned a $52 dollar price tag or higher, and two of those eclipsed the $60 barrier:
Troy Tulowitzki - $61
Carlos Gonzalez - $60
Albert Pujols - $58
Robinson Cano - $56
Carl Crawford - $56
Alex Rodriguez - $54
Adrian Gonzalez - $54
Hanley Ramirez - $54
Josh Hamilton - $52
Evan Longoria - $52

I expected Tulo and HanRam to command a lot of bucks considering the thin talent pool at shortstop, but I never would have guessed that anyone would have dropped $61. I went into this draft with the intention of not spending more than $40 on any one player, but the price tags on these top-tier players made it difficult for me to stick to my guns.

Part of the inflation probably had to do with the league's new rules on transactions. We've capped pickups at 4 per week in order to keep people from streaming pitchers. It's already hard to work that strategy in a 20 team league, but it definitely favored people with consistent internet access. And no kids. And no real life. Naturally, I was against the rule change. As another deterrent, rosters were expanded from 23 to 25 players, which means the available talent pool got a little shallower. Teams now need to draft what they need instead of relying on free agents and waiver wire.

My underlying goal was to model my behavior on last year's champ, and I think I did a pretty good job. I think we had similar strategies (don't overspend, focus on infielders, relatively low pitching budget) though he's always been a collector of closers and I abhor spending money for saves. We ended up with similar looking teams and throughout the draft we were within $10-15 of each other. He spent $64 on pitching, I spent $69. His highest paid player is Ryan Howard at $42, mine is Adam Dunn at $43. Both infields are solid, though he's got a hole at third base (Placido Polanco) and I've got a hole at short (Jhonny Peralta/J.J. Hardy). We also both took shots on injured pitchers (Brandon Webb for me, Johan Santana for him). It'll be really funny when we both finish in the middle of the pack.

One of the team owners didn't even bother to show up, so Yahoo was auto-bidding on his behalf. Since the Yahoo draft values didn't take into account the inflation of our 20-team league, he ended up with an injured Chase Utley for $18 (possibly a steal, if he gets on the field sometime in the next two months), a questionable Carlos Beltran for $6 and a bunch of $1 and $2 guys to fill out the roster. Yahoo only spent $78 of his $260 budget. The new roster size and transaction limit rules are going to make it really hard for him to build a competitive squad. The lesson: DON'T MISS YOUR DRAFT!

I made a couple of tactical errors over the course of the draft. After I grabbed Shin-Soo Choo for $38 and Dunn, I got Andre Ethier at $29. I fully intended to not spend more than $15 on my second outfielder, but I got caught up in an early bidding war. I would've rather spent that money on Buster Posey (who went for $32), Victor Martinez ($28) or even a second tier catcher like Carlos Santana ($19), Geovany Soto ($12) or Jorge Posada ($12).

I also overspent on a couple of low-dollar guys. I got into another bidding war over Kila Ka'aihue, who got nominated early (50th overall) and I was pretty high on as a sleeper this year. I certainly didn't want to spend $8 on him though. I also nominated Adam LaRoche about halfway through in an attempt to get one of the richer teams to spend their money, but I ended up "winning" him for $6. He and Ka'aihue will end up splitting time at my utility spot.

At the end of the draft, I still had $5 left which basically means that I messed up in the early part of the draft. I wanted to have some money left toward the end of the draft for some of the sleeper/upside pitchers I was going to need to take, but I didn't anticipate the wild spending spree in the early part of the draft and how it would impact the endgame.

I drank 7 beers during the draft, 6 of them were Pyramid Apricot Ales. Those little bastards are delicious.

Chin Music 2011

I'll write up a full draft recap tomorrow, but here's who I ended up drafting and for how much. Before the draft, I resolved not to spend more than $40 on any single player, focus my investments on infielders and spend no more than $60 on pitching. As you will see, I broke all these rules, but not too badly...

C - Jarrod Saltalamacchia - $1
1B - Adam Dunn - $43
2B - Aaron Hill - $19
3B - Casey McGehee - $25
SS - Jhonny Peralta - $4
OF - Shin-Soo Choo - $38
OF - Andre Ethier - $29
OF - Nate McLouth - $8
UT - Adam LaRoche - $6

BN - Kila Ka'aihue - $8
BN - David Murphy - $2
BN - J.J. Hardy - $2
BN - Melvin Mora - $1

SP - Jon Lester - $30
SP - Dan Haren - $20
SP - Kyle McClellan - $3
RP - Jonny Venters - $2
RP - Joaquin Benoit - $1
P - Erik Bedard - $2
P - Derek Holland - $2
P - Kyle Drabek - $2

BN - Phil Coke - $2
BN - James McDonald - $2
DL - Brandon Webb - $2
DL - Justin Duchscherer - $1

I feel pretty good about my draft. I didn't overspend on any single player (11 players went for over $50 and two - Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki - went for over $60), I only overspent my pitching budget by $9 and the only hole in my starting lineup is at catcher. Regardless, I came really close to hitting the stat levels I thought I would need to be competitive. Batting average is about 10 points too low, I have about 30 homers and 40 RBI to spare, runs are 35 short, steals are low by 50 and OPS is only missed the mark by 10 points. If I could swing an Adam Dunn for Carl Crawford trade, I'd just about exactly hit my marks.

Pitching is another story. I punted saves again this year, but I did grab Venters who should get some chances in Atlanta. I grabbed Lester and Haren as high strikeout anchors and filled the rest of the staff with speculation picks. Webb could be the third ace this team needs, but we won't find out until at least May. Duchscherer could be a helpful ERA and WHIP balance, but health is an issue with him too. I'm expecting big things from Erik Bedard, which is terrifying. The rest of my starters are all "upside" guys who haven't proven anything yet. Pitching propelled me last year (Felix Hernandez, Johan Santana, Clayton Kershaw, Mat Latos & C.J. Wilson), but I also took way more chances on young guys, converted relievers, and injured hurlers this year. Not sure how that's going to play out.

In 11 hours, I guess we'll find out...

Outfield: The Big Green Money Hole

In a 2008 Vanity Fair piece, Rotisserie Baseball creator Daniel Okrent told the tale of the very first roto auction draft in 1980:

What I remember most about that draft was that Mike Schmidt was the first player picked, and he went for $26. I also remember that one of our members, Rob Fleder of the Fleder Mice, drafted the $100 outfield, of Bobby Bonds, Ron LeFlore and Dave Kingman—the three of them together cost $100.

It's a cautionary tale, of course, because the $26 Mike Schmidt had more RBIs in 1980 than the entirety of the $100 outfield. I've tended to believe that numbers are numbers and as long as you reach certain levels it doesn't really matter what position generates them. Maybe that's why I put together the $97 outfield last year.

Matt Holliday, $40: .312 BA, 28 HR, 103 RBI, 95 R, 9 SB, .922 OPS
Jason Bay, $32: .259 BA, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 48 R, 10 SB, .749 OPS
Nelson Cruz, a steal at $25: .318 BA, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 60 R, 17 SB, .950 OPS

Jason Bay's inability to hit home runs, coupled with Nelson Cruz's superhuman ability to injure his hamstrings pretty much doomed the $97 outfield. Luckily, I traded Bay after a month for Clayton Kershaw and when Cruz was healthy he was an absolute beast.

However, I could've spent $3 on these three undrafted outfielders and pulled similar numbers:
Jose Bautista: .260 BA, 54 HR, 124 RBI, 109 R, 9 SB, .995 OPS
Angel Pagan: .290 BA, 11 HR, 69 RBI, 80 R, 37 SB, .765 OPS
Mike Stanton: .259 BA, 22 HR, 59 RBI, 45 R, 5 SB, .833 OPS

I'd take a hit on batting average and a little bit on OPS, but these three out produced in all the counting categories. And for $94 less. Of course there's not going to be an undrafted Jose Bautista every year, but the point is, there is always solid handful of free agent/waiver wire outfielders who can help your team, so it's best not to overspend on the big name guys.

Still, there's bountiful power and speed in the outfield, so it won't kill you to grab a guy like Carlos Gonzalez. Just don't buy three of them.

A change in how the tiers are calculated - first I grouped the top 20, second 20 and third 20 outfielders according to Yahoo rankings. I came up with the average production line for each of those groups:
1-20: .290 BA, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 90 R, 25 SB, .850 OPS
21-40: .275 BA, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 85 R, 20 SB, .800 OPS
41-60: .270 BA, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 75 R, 15 SB, .775 OPS
I then did the same projections based on three-year performance, etc. and assigned 3 points if they matched or exceeded top 20 stats, 2 points if they exceeded second 20 stats and 1 point if they exceeded third 20 stats. Confused? Great. Players listed by number of points (along with 2010 auction value).

18 points (best possible score):
Carlos Gonzalez - $17
The definition of breakout season. He showed flashes of becoming a Carlos Beltran-like player in 2009 and put all his potential together last year. He'll need to string together a few more seasons like that before I'm willing to pay what he's likely to go for this year (I'll guess $49).

17 points:
Shin-Soo Choo - $23
Not sure if Choo is ever going to step up to the next level, but another 20/20 season with a .300 average is easily attainable and will help significantly in all 6 categories.

16 points:
Ryan Braun - $52
Matt Kemp - $44
Braun took a little power dip last year, but I don't think it'll be a trend. If Matt Kemp's low average and high strikeouts may drive his price down, which would make him a great investment because he should bounce back.

15 points:
Josh Hamilton - $25
Matt Holliday - $40
Nelson Cruz - $25
Jayson Werth - $35
The only question mark on Hamilton is whether or not he'll stay healthy. Holliday, on the other hand, has been healthy and consistent for the past 7 years. Cruz, like his Texas teammate Hamilton, is a powerful bat when he's healthy. Werth loses the advantage of that killer Phillies lineup, but the Nats lineup doesn't look bad with him, Zimmerman, LaRoche and Morse.

14 points:
Carl Crawford - $39
Bobby Abreu - $22
C.C. should benefit from playing half his games in Fenway Park, peppering hits off the Green Monster and grabbing extra bases on balls hit to the deep gaps and taking weird caroms. Abreu could have another 20/20 season in him and is the kind of well-rounded player that never hurts a team (you just need better players to actually win).

13 points:
Andre Ethier - $33
Hunter Pence - $25
Corey Hart - $2
Vladimir Guerrero - $11
Ethier went for more than he was worth last year, but he should settle back down into the $25-$28 range after only hitting 23 homers in 2010. Hunter Pence delivers in the countables, but his OPS is lacking. Still, the consistency is admirable. Hart had a great bounceback year last year, but I'm expecting a slight drop-off (not back to 2009 levels, though). Vlad is an interesting case: he was a first-half monster in Texas last year and then fell off the face of the earth after the All-Star Break. His talent is undeniable, but at 36 it's hard to tell how much longer he'll be productive.

12 points:
Aubrey Huff - $6
Nick Markakis - $29
Michael Cuddyer - $21
This is the point where we start to see the talent divide. Aubrey Huff played a big role on last year's championship team, but he's being challenged at first base by rookie Brandon Belt, prompting a move to right field in Cody Ross's absence. I don't understand why people love Nick Markakis so much. Cuddyer's flexibility makes him an asset.

11 points:
Carlos Lee - $30
Nick Swisher - $12
Manny Ramirez - $25
Justin Upton - $35
Raul Ibanez - $21
Andrew McCutchen - $29
Alex Rios - $19
Lee is still the primary run producer in Houston and hopefully his batting average will pop back up. I have an irrational hate of Nick Swisher the person, but Nick Swisher the amalgamation of statistics is exactly the kind of player I want on my team. Healthy Manny can still rake with the best, so since he'll be the DH this year he might be worth an investment. I have the same issue with Justin Upton as I have with Markakis: all-around average players who get drastically over-valued. Everyone's talking up McCutchen like he's guaranteed to have a breakout year, but I can't spend $25+ on a Pirate.

10 points (start of second tier):
Jose Bautista - undrafted
Curtis Granderson - $31
Jason Heyward - $16
Carlos Beltran - $9
Grady Sizemore - $34
Johnny Damon - $11
Shane Victorino - $20
Bautista cannot replicate last year's numbers, but still should be a dependable power source. When Granderson is healthy, he's a weapon. I don't see a sophomore slump in Heyward's future. Beltran and Sizemore are interesting gambles: you could probably get each for around $5-$8 and they may well return well beyond that investment. Or they may breakdown again. If you've got a solid floor, take a shot. Damon or Victorino can do what Markakis does for a lower investment.

9 points:
Colby Rasmus - $3
Carlos Quentin - $23
Delmon Young - $1
Jason Kubel - $23
Adam Lind - $32
Magglio Ordonez - $8
Drew Stubbs - $5
Chris Young - $4
Ichiro Suzuki - $30
Denard Span - $24
Torii Hunter - $24
Ben Zobrist - $32
Rasmus and Delmon Young took the next steps in their careers last year. Carlos Quentin is batting average cancer, but he still hits for OK power. Kubel and Lind need to improve their batting averages. I don't understand the appeal of the new Magglio Ordonez either: he's like a Markakis who doesn't run or hit homers. Not buying Drew Stubbs; too many strikeouts. Ichiro is the kind of player you pick up so you can have low average slow guys like Swisher on your squad. Too many overpriced guys at this level as the talent starts to thin out.

8 points (start of third tier):
Ryan Ludwick - $17
J.D. Drew - $8
Jay Bruce - $21
Brad Hawpe - $16
Jason Bay - $32
Jacoby Ellsbury - $34
Austin Jackson - $1
Vernon Wells - $11
Nate McLouth - $17
Angel Pagan - undrafted
Unless they come cheap Ludwick and Hawpe are bad buys this year in San Diego. Drew is on the down-swing. Bruce is the next Adam Dunn, minus the steals. Jason Bay and Jacoby Ellsbury could not be any more different players, but both need huge bounceback seasons this year. Ellsbury will deliver. Bay, maybe not. Austin Jackson is in for a sophomore let-down. Wells will be fine in Anaheim, though he won't hit 30 dingers again. Buy McLouth, trust me. Pagan could be mini-Ichiro this year.

7 points:
Mike Stanton - undrafted
Andres Torres - undrafted
David DeJesus - $3
Josh Willingham - $4
Marlon Byrd - $2
Hideki Matsui - $5
Jonny Gomes - $2
Stanton will continue to hit for power but he has got to manage his strikeout rate. Torres was a fluke. Of the three new additions in Oakland (DeJesus, Willingham and Matsui), the only I'd take a flyer on is Willingham: dude has a career .841 OPS, which is pretty good for a guy you should be able to grab for $1. Look out for Jonny Gomes. He didn't have the massive season some people expected with regular playing time last year, but he could easily hit 25+ homers in 2011.

6 points:
Luke Scott - $8
Jose Tabata - undrafted
Adam Jones - $22
Jack Cust - $2
David Murphy - $1
B.J. Upton - $25
Juan Pierre - $3
Luke Scott is an underrated hitter. His teammate Adam Jones is an overrated hitter. David Murphy may actually outperform my projection this year since it looks like he's in line for significant playing time.

Bright spots in the 5 points and under crowd:
Ryan Raburn - 5 pts. - undrafted: worth more as a 2B, but flexibility never hurt anyone.
Michael Morse - 5 pts. - undrafted: could have a huge power year, or could be Jonny Gomes. Worth a look.
Will Venable - 5 pts. - $1: interesting power/speed combo, average is scary.
Coco Crisp - 5 pts. - undrafted: showed unbridled speed in second half of 2010, enough pop to start every day.
Cody Ross - 4 pts. - $12: starting the year on the DL, will push Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell or Brandon Belt to the bench.
Matt LaPorta - 2 pts. - $6: stumbled last year, heavy pressure from the organization to perform this season.
Alex Gordon - 1 point - $1: see Matt LaPorta.

Shortstop: Not Worthy of a Pithy Comment

All the experts agree: shortstop is a wasteland this year. It's almost like the old days before A-Rod, Jeter and Nomar made shortstop the nouveau power position. The plus side of having only a couple of big bats at a position in this league is that it evens the field: the big dollars that Hanley and Tulo are going to command will cripple the teams that take them, everybody else gets a space filler who may or may not be preferable to just starting nobody.

I'm serious. Here's an example from last year's draft.

Team Funkeyes goes this route:
SS Yunel Escobar, $15: .256 BA, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 60 R, 6 SB, .655 OPS
OF Carlos Quentin, $23: .243 BA, 26 HR, 87 RBI, 73 R, 2 SB, .821 OPS
Combined, $38: .249, 30 HR, 122 RBI, 133 R, 8 SB, .735 OPS

For that same $38 ($36, actually) Team Sleeves went this way:
SS Cliff Pennington, $1: .250 BA, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 64 R, 29 SB, .687 OPS
OF Adam Dunn, $35: .260 BA, 31 HR, 103 RBI, 85 R, 0 SB, .892 OPS
Combined, $36: .255 BA, 37 HR, 149 RBI, 149 R, 29 SB, .790 OPS

Who got the better deal? Even without Pennington's steals, that's a way better outcome for Sleeves. Not to mention there are plenty of $1 shortstop options out there who can pull consistent ABs and not kill you.

Here are the tiers:

6 categories:
Hanley Ramirez - $55
Derek Jeter - $32
HanRam could end up getting more auction dollars than Pujols this year because of the SS scarcity factor. Pujols will put up better numbers in every category but steals, but that won't stop the conventional wisdom crowd. Jeter is getting downgraded big time, but even a sub-par Jeter can still outperform most shortstops in every category.

5 categories:
Troy Tulowitzki - $46
Jose Reyes - $30
Tulo is worth the big price tag, but he doesn't steal bases and he's injury prone. If Hanley's the only sure bet at this position, I'm not gambling with big dollars. Reyes should still be a valuable fantasy shortstop, but I think his days of 55+ steals are over.

4 categories:
Jimmy Rollins - $36
Alexei Ramirez - $12
Stephen Drew - $15
Miguel Tejada - $10
This is the group of guys who are going to go for upwards of $20 as teams get desperate that they'll lose out on above-average shortstops. None of these guys are dominant players, but you'd never know it by the price tags they'll pull. Of the 4, Tejada may be the bargain because of his age.

3 categories:
None
Another steep talent drop-off, though the overall talent level is much lower.

2 categories:
Jhonny Peralta - $10
Juan Uribe - $1
Alex Gonzalez - undrafted
Ian Desmond - $6
Rafael Furcal - $6
Maicer Izturis - $4
Elvis Andrus - $21
Ryan Theriot - $7
Peralta, Uribe and Gonzalez all get bumped up because I'll be punting steals. Desmond is a good pick to mix speed and power, though not enough to make a huge impact week-to-week. Furcal and Izturis are more or less the same player, speed with just enough pop to get by. Elvis Andrus will get paid again to be that Chone Figgins-type one-dimensional player that I hate. If I can get Ryan Theriot at a discount - say $3 or fewer - he can start on my squad.

1 category:
Tsuyoshi Nishioka - undrafted
Mike Aviles - $1
Marco Scutaro - $14
J.J. Hardy - $2
Starlin Castro - undrafted
Omar Infante - undrafted
Asdrubal Cabrera - $13
Jason Bartlett - $22
Erick Aybar - $13
Yuniesky Betancourt - undrafted
Cliff Pennington - $1
As previously stated, I'm way up on Nishioka, but I won't overspend to get him. Barring injury, this may be the Mike Aviles breakout year we've been waiting on. Scutaro isn't worth $14, but he is very good and is a potential fantasy starter if he can hold off Jed Lowrie. J.J. Hardy in a solid Oriole lineup should get some power numbers back. Everybody loves Starlin Castro and I'm going to guess that he goes for about $18. The rest of these guys don't seem worth more than $1 to me.

0 categories (with upside):
Yunel Escobar - $15
Reid Brignac - undrafted
Alcides Escobar - $4
Orlando Cabrera - $8
Clint Barmes - $9
Escobar in Toronto is intriguing since it seems like everyone who goes there starts hitting homers out of nowhere. I like Brignac to hit between 10-15 homers this year too. Barmes would've been a great pick until he broke his hand in spring training.

Jed Lowrie won the affection of the Boston faithful filling in for the injured Dustin Pedroia last year. Unfortunately, with a healthy D.P., Scutaro entrenched at short, Youkilis shifted over to third and the addition of Adrian Gonzalez, it'll be a challenge to find playing time for Jed. He could conceivably play every day, filling in for the starting infield which makes him an interesting pick-up if he can still swing the bat while filling the utility role.

Third Base: Steals at the Hot Corner?

Well, I meant "steals" like deals or bargains, but David Wright will do, one of the very few sources of speed at third base. Chone Figgins will be 3B-eligible after a couple of weeks, but I already explained how I feel about him in my second base round-up.

So are there any deals to be had at the hot corner? The talent at this position isn't nearly as shallow as it is at shortstop, but not as deep as second base where there are more upside picks. The top guys are still going to demand top dollar, but some of the middle tier guys may be good enough to propel a team if you can surround him with complementary players.

Last year, I skimped at third and drafted Brandon Wood (hoping for a breakout that never came) and Edwin Encarnacion as a throwback. While E.E. finished the season with 21 homers, it was deceptive production as he missed a month to an arm injury and got sent to the minors in mid-season. I dropped him out of frustration, picked up Houston rookie Chris Johnson (a pleasant surprise), then eventually traded Matt Holliday for Ryan Zimmerman at the deadline.

The lesson: invest at third base. You need production out of this position and it's less nerve-wracking to just pony up the dough than speculate and gamble all season. That said, here are the third base tiers for 2011 (and their 2010 auction value):

6 categories:
Evan Longoria - $46
David Wright - $33
Alex Rodriguez - $50
Steals are the leg up here, and while there are a couple more speedsters at the position, those guys don't pack the power the way the top three do. Longoria's power numbers took a dip last year (only 22 homers), but even at that level he more than contributes in this group. Wright's $33 price tag is sure to go up as he rediscovered his power stroke in 2010. A-Rod could be a steal this year since he only swiped 4 bags last year.

5 categories:
Ryan Zimmerman - $35
Casey McGehee - $6
Zim is a legitimate star who routinely gets overlooked because of where he plays. He could push 100 runs and 100 RBIs again this year with the addition of Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche to the lineup. I feel stupid for letting McGehee go for $6 last year, but I spent too heavy in the early part of the auction and didn't have the bucks left to get into a bidding war.

4 categories:
Jose Bautista - undrafted
Adrian Beltre - $10
Aramis Ramirez - $30
Mark Reynolds - $40
It's not every year that the MLB home run leader goes undrafted in a fantasy league. Given the depth of the Ugueth League, I'd wager that Bautista didn't get taken in most standard mixed leagues and maybe not even in some AL-onlys. He's gonna get some bucks this year, but I'd be shocked if he knocks over 35 homers this year. Beltre should flourish in Texas if he stays healthy. Aramis posted his worst average and OPS since 2002, but I'm guessing he's got another good season or two left in him. Reynolds will hit over the Mendoza line this year and even if that's only .215, he's still worth a big investment.

3 categories:
Martin Prado - $7
Prado's worth more at 3B than 2B or OF (where he'll play primarily this year), but it's dependent on him continuing to hit for .300+ average with a fair number of doubles since he's not a consistent power threat.

2 categories:
Pablo Sandoval - $39
Michael Cuddyer - $21
Scott Rolen - $8
Michael Young - $21
Chipper Jones - $14
Miguel Tejada - $10
Placido Polanco - $6
Kung Fu Panda was a huge disappointment last year (literally *rim shot*), but after dropping almost 40 pounds in the off-season I'm expecting a big bounce back. Cuddyer took a power dip like most Twins last year and Target Field won't do him many favors this year. Michael Young might be traded and he hits 40 points lower on the road compared to his numbers at Arlington. Rolen, Chipper and Tejada are all big question marks due to age.

1 category:
Chris Johnson - undrafted
Jhonny Peralta - $10
Omar Infante - undrafted
Chase Headley - $4
Maicer Izturis - $4
Johnson needs to prove that he wasn't a rookie fluke. Peralta's worth more as a SS. As a Tigers fan, I refuse to believe that Omar Infante is any good. Headley and Izturis provide a little speed, but don't bring enough overall to be a starting option.

0 categories (with upside):
Pedro Alvarez - undrafted
Ian Stewart - $26
Neil Walker - undrafted
Juan Uribe - $1
David Freese - $3
Alex Gordon - $1
Casey Blake - $8
Kevin Kouzmanoff - $5
Brandon Inge - $3
Jose Lopez - $16
Edwin Encarnacion - $1
Melvin Mora - $1
Wilson Betemit - undrafted
Brent Morel - undrafted
Alvarez is sure to command big bucks, but I'm not going to gamble on a sophomore campaign from a Pirate. Repeat for Neil Walker. Ian Stewart is a walking malady, but worth a flyer if the price doesn't get too high. If Betemit stays healthy, he could be a sleeper power source. I'd take Encarnacion for $1 again if he comes around, assuming he gets the bulk of the DH at-bats in Toronto.

The Marlins are a mess at third base. For most of the spring they were grooming Matt Dominguez to take the job, but he proved that he couldn't hit water if he fell off a raft. Donnie Murphy looks like the guy, but he's not worth a buck.

Ty Wigginton could be in for a good amount of playing time in Colorado with Todd Helton being old, Ian Stewart being a likely injury bet and the second base job mostly unsettled between Jose Lopez and Jonathan Herrera.

THE RULES HAVE CHANGED

In a previous post, I explained the Ugueth League's transactions rule (or rather, lack thereof):

Teams may make daily transactions and there are no limits on the number of transactions a team may make over the course of the season (the median number of transactions made by a team last year was 40, though the league champ made a whopping 324 transactions. I made 86.)

Monday night, Commish posts this:

One rule suggestion that was sent in to me, and one that I like personally very much, is to make roster changes effective on a weekly basis (Monday).

This would make it more like football in that there is no advantage to the person who can be online more often or who happens to be up early enough to pick up some scrub pitcher on a Sunday morning. I personally think that is one very generic aspect of our league that sucks, the cycling of pitchers. This would eliminate that for good.

Sure, I've cursed the names of a couple fantasy owners who beat me to a key free agent because I got hammered the night before and didn't get up in time to grab the guy I needed. If you're competitive and you want it bad enough, you'll make the time to make your adds and drops. It wasn't an exact correlation last year, but the teams who made a lot of moves generally performed better. It's not that they were gaming the system, they were just more involved. The more attention you pay to your team, the more likely you are to know how to improve it.

After 48 hours and a league vote, Commish posted this tonight:

A late evening vote breaks a 5-5 tie and passes the new roster rule.

So 6 votes changed a rule for a 20 team league. That seems fair.

There's a counter proposal to keep add/drops instantaneous, but to limit them to 3 per week. I think that's an acceptable compromise, but that still doesn't solve the issue of people who have better or more convenient internet access. I really don't think it's a problem: streaming pitchers can work to great effect in a 10-12 team mixed league because there are always mid-tier starters in the free agent pool. In a 20 team league, starting pitching is at a premium and there's usually no more than 1 or 2 free agent starters each day and they are, well, not good. You're taking a big chance in the losses, ERA and WHIP categories, just so you can take wins and strikeouts. A 2-for-3 swap doesn't seem like a smart gamble.

This rule change is actually making me think twice about whether I want to stay in this league. It's been a long time, but I don't really know these guys at all. I play fantasy baseball for the challenge, and this new rule change just made it less challenging for me.

Second Base or Trauma Ward?

Chase Utley's patellar tendinitis is ruling the MLB newswire right now as a multitude of nerds try to figure out where their second base production is going to come from this year. The group is very top-heavy talent-wise and those few players have significant injury histories. Utley broke his hand in 2007, had hip surgery in 2008 and sprained his thumb in 2010. Dustin Pedroia missed over half of the 2010 season with a broken foot. Brian Roberts dislocated his elbow in 2005, injured his groin in 2006, missed 91 games with an abdominal strain in 2010 and is battling back spasms this year. What hasn't broken down on Ian Kinsler? Answer: not his thumb (2006), his foot (2007), his ankle (2010) or his groin (2008 and 2010).

Second basemen are a high-risk group and command a lot of auction dollars due to the low talent supply. The top-ten highest paid 2Bs went for an average of $31 with Utley pulling an obscene $49. You can never predict injuries (unless they occur before draft day), so each of my projections assumes a full, healthy major league season. You just can't take it to the bank with this group, though.

6 categories:
Ian Kinsler - $34
Chase Utley - $49
I had Utley on top of this board where he belongs, but until someone can definitively tell me that he can move side-to-side (kinda important for a 2B) I'm avoiding him. A healthy Ian Kinsler can help you win all six categories week in and week out.

5 categories:
Robinson Cano - $31
Dustin Pedroia - $31
Cano is as close to a sure thing as there is in baseball, and with all the injury upheaval at this position, I'd imagine whoever takes him is going to pay for that consistency. Pedroia is coming off a lost season, but I'm expecting him to contribute in everything but homers (his career max is 17.)

4 categories:
Brandon Phillips - $31
Dan Uggla - $23
Rickie Weeks - $12
Ben Zobrist - $32
Brian Roberts - $27
Brandon Phillips will get you numbers, but his historically low walk rate is a detriment in the OPS column. Uggla is a steals punter's dream and I'm going to be giving him a hard look if he doesn't command too high a price. Rickie Weeks is back and won't go for $12 again. Ben Zobrist is likely to bounce around between first, second and right field; I'd feel more comfortable investing if he had a steady job. If other owners are leery of Brian Roberts, they're right to be, but he may end up being the steal of the draft.

3 categories:
None.
Again, a steep talent drop-off that raises the prices for the top-tier guys.

2 categories:
Aaron Hill - $28
Ryan Raburn - undrafted
Kelly Johnson - $3
Martin Prado - $7
Howie Kendrick - $14
Ryan Theriot - $7
Hill should continue to put up power numbers and he'll post a better batting average than last year's .205. Raburn qualifies at 2B but he'll be playing left field for the Tigers this year and has shown nothing but promise in limited playing time so far. I left a gaping hole at second in last year's draft, but traded for Kelly Johnson in April; he won't put up last year's numbers, but he should help in runs and OPS. Prado should by all rights be playing third base, but Chipper Jones refuses to go away; he'll shift to LF instead. I think Howie Kendrick is useless and I'm going to throw his name out early as a money suck. Ryan Theriot, the Cardinals shortstop, has some speed and is capable of hitting for a respectable average.

1 category:
Tsuyoshi Nishioka - undrafted
Mike Aviles - $1
Melvin Mora - $1
Juan Uribe - $1
Marco Scutaro - $14
Chone Figgins - $23
Omar Infante - undrafted
Placido Polanco - $6
Maicer Izturis - $4
Bill Hall - undrafted
Orlando Hudson - $4
Freddy Sanchez - $6
Sean Rodriguez - undrafted
Luis Castillo - $1
Eric Young Jr. - undrafted
I am very high on Nishioka and probably not for any good reasons. He's still young, hit for high average in Japan and stole a fair number of bases. He could be an Ichiro-mold infielder, or he could be completely inconsequential. Most years, I leave that gamble to someone else, but this year I might take a chance. This could be Mike Aviles' real breakout year (third time's a charm.) Mora and Uribe should provide some pop. If Marco Scutaro can fend off Jed Lowrie all season, he could score a lot of runs in that Sox lineup. I will never draft Chone Figgins again; the definition of a one-dimensional player. Does anyone really believe that Omar Infante was an All-Star last year? Polanco could shift back over to second if Utley misses any time. Bill Hall might hit 20 bombs in Houston, but won't be good for much else. Rodriguez, Castillo and Young all need to produce this spring to win a job or else they're worthless.

0 categories (but with upside):
Gordon Beckham - $15
Neil Walker - undrafted
Reid Brignac - undrafted
Skip Schumaker - $4
Mark Ellis - $1
Danny Espinosa - undrafted
Clint Barmes - $9
Carlos Guillen - $1
Beckham doesn't do it for me: he'll post average, well-rounded numbers, but those don't win head-to-head leagues. Walker and Brignac are a lot of people's sophomore breakout picks, but I won't overpay for them. Mark Ellis is so underrated, but he still never produces to prove anybody wrong. Espinosa could be a ROY candidate if he can hit over .250. Games played over/under on Carlos Guillen: 87. Place your bets. FYI: the under would've won the past two seasons.

The Mets second base competition between Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejeda and Rule 5 pick Brad Emaus will likely produce no one really capable of helping the team as a starter. Castillo could provide some bench speed.

The Rockies situation is a little more promising. Jose Lopez (acquired from Seattle) has a decent power bat and could prosper at Coors Field. Eric Young Jr. is a speedster who could do some serious damage if he could hit for average like his dad. Jonathan Herrera has impressed with the bat this spring, but would likely be a backup if he makes the squad at all. The 25 year-old Chris Nelson is an intriguing power prospect but probably won't make the roster.

In Seattle, Dustin Ackley - the second overall pick in the 2009 draft after Stephen Strasburg - was moved by the Mariners brass to second base. He primarily played the outfield and first base at North Carolina. He's a high contact, high average hitter with some speed potential. Probably won't be an impact player this season if he makes the team, but might be someone to consider a couple years down the road.

Joe Maddon has a lot of moving parts in his defense, the most prominent of which is Ben Zobrist. Zobrist could play first, second, or right field, but the Rays have serviceable options in Dan Johnson, Sean Rodriguez and Matt Joyce, respectively. Zobrist had a huge year in 2009 but a steep fall off in 2010 as he was being moved all around the field. I'd feel much more confident in him if he had a steady job, even if it is at the expense of one of the three other guys.

First Base: How Much Is Pujols Worth?

So the Cardinals couldn't sign Albert Pujols to a long-term contract. Details aren't out there, but the rumor is that he wanted 10 years at $30 million per. Considering that he's the best and most consistent hitter in the bigs by a country mile, I think he's more than worth it. But how much is he worth in a fantasy auction?

Checking a variety of sources, El Hombre's average going rate is $48, or about 18% of the total draft budget. It seems pretty irresponsible to wrap up that much of your budget in one player, but Pujols is more than just some player, right? In the UL, we've got 20 teams, which means a lot more money to go around AND a thinning of the talent pool. That makes owning a player like Pujols not just an advantage, but almost a necessity.

Albert went for $57 in last year's draft, about 22% of the total $260 budget. It is a sizable chunk to spend on one player, for sure, but the same owner then spent $55 on Hanley Ramirez and $33 on Andre Ethier. Spending over half his budget on three players (and another 25% on three more) only got him 6th place and a division title worth $100. Not bad.

In 2009, I drafted Pujols at $61 and I did NOT fare that well. Not Albert's fault, of course, but I couldn't afford to put much of a team around him. I learned my lesson in 2010 and let a lot of the highly rated first basemen go early for big money (five of them went for over $50.) However, I knew I needed to grab somebody to anchor my offense and I had my heart set on Miguel Cabrera. I wasn't willing to pay $52 for him, so I let him go. Luckily, I grabbed Adrian Gonzalez - who I regarded as the last acceptable first baseman - for $41.

A quick market analysis shows a deeper field at first base and outfield this year. There;'s also significantly more starting pitching depth, which makes me think that I may be able to get a better deal on a top flight first baseman this year. Let's take a look at the tiers (and their 2010 draft values):

6 categories:
Albert Pujols - $57
It's a stretch to say that Pujols is above average in steals because the SB average among first baseman is so low. Plus, he's 31 years old and he averages 7.5 steals per year, so it's hardly a significant advantage. Still, Albert is going to be Albert and he may even be playing for a landmark free agent contract this year. If there's a year that he's worth $60 at auction, this may be it.

5 categories:
Miguel Cabrera - $51
Mark Teixeira - $51
Adrian Gonzalez - $41
Justin Morneau - $37
If you're not willing to break the bank on Albert, these guys will put up plenty of big numbers for you. I wouldn't worry about Cabrera's off-field problems: he's simply too good a hitter to let that stuff interfere with his play. All Tex does is hit 100-35-100 every year and I'm guessing his BA will come back up. A-Gone is making good progress from his shoulder surgery AND moving to a friendly hitting environment at Fenway. If Morneau conquers his concussion issue, he's in line for a HUGE comeback year.

4 categories:
Ryan Howard - $52
Prince Fielder - $51
Joey Votto - $34
Still no worries at this level. You lose a little bit in batting average with Howard and Fielder, but they will get their HRs and RBIs. NL MVP Joey Votto is an interesting case: his walk rate was extraordinarily high this year and I don't know if that's a repeatable feat. I'm guessing he's going to take a dip, but not to the point where he won't be valuable. Just don't overspend for last year's career year.

3 categories:
Adam Dunn - $35
Kevin Youkilis - $34
Dunn will be DHing in Chicago, so as long as he makes the mental adjustment he should continue to put up numbers. Youkilis will be 3B eligible after about two weeks and I'm guessing that he'll actually have higher value there than at first, even though he's a passable 1B solution this year regardless.

2 categories:
Paul Konerko - $7
Kendry Morales - $32
I can only guess that all 20 of us thought Konerko was "over the hill" last spring, hence the $7 auction price. All he did was have a career year. The now 35 year-old Konerko won't repeat those numbers, but he'll definitely fetch a higher price. If Morales recovers from the most freak injury in the history of baseball, he should post some respectable numbers for the Halos.

1 category:
Billy Butler - $21
Carlos Pena - $24
Victor Martinez - $27
Buster Posey - $1
Pablo Sandoval - $39
Michael Cuddyer - $21
I want to believe that this is Billy Butler's breakout year, but I'm not going to pay for a wish. Carlos Pena should put up his normal power numbers at Wrigley, but the BA is probably a lost cause (he should at least get over the Mendoza Line this season, though.) Martinez and Posey are catcher-eligible, but make this list based on batting average. Sandoval will primarily play 3B and Cuddyer is 3B/OF eligible.

0 categories (but could fill the Utility spot):
Aubrey Huff - $6
Derrek Lee - $36
Adam LaRoche - $11
Carlos Lee - $30
Adam Lind - $32
Luke Scott - $8
Mitch Moreland - undrafted
Gaby Sanchez - $1
Ben Zobrist - $32
Mike Napoli - $9
Brad Hawpe - $16
Ike Davis - undrafted
Lance Berkman - $18
Garrett Jones - $15
James Loney - $17
Kila Ka'aihue - undrafted
Howie Kendrick - $14
Russell Branyan - $5
Matt LaPorta - $6
Juan Rivera - $14
Michael Morse - undrafted
Huff is a gamble at 34 years old. I don't think Derrek Lee is done yet, and he'll actually have a pretty solid O's lineup around him. Curious how Brad Hawpe will fare at Petco Park, one of the worst hitter's parks in MLB. Berkman in RF is going to be an adventure all year. Kila Ka'aihue might be a sleeper power pick as KC's DH. Matt LaPorta needs to put up or pack up this year.

Tampa Bay says they're committed to Dan Johnson at first, but we won't really know how things are going to break down until the end of the spring. It really all depends where Joe Maddon wants Ben Zobrist to play: first, second, or right field.

The Diamondbacks 1B competition is fierce as well. They brought in slugger Russell Branyan on a minor league contract to audition for the job alongside former Yankee minor leaguer Juan Miranda and homegrown power prospect Brandon Allen. Allen has the most potential, but will probably start in AAA. Branyan and Miranda may form a left-right platoon, which ordinarily would favor Branyan (the lefty) if it weren't for regular doses of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jimenez, Mat Latos and had Billingsley in the NL West.

Atlanta's rookie first baseman Freddie Freeman could make a run at rookie of the year. He's only 21 and has a lot of time to develop, but he's showing some signs that his bat is major league ready and he's fielding the position really well. The only reason I haven't rated him as an "upside" prospect is because I generally don't like to invest in rookies. If I can grab him late for $1, I'll take a shot. Otherwise, let somebody else take the risk.

Catcher: the Tight End of Fantasy Baseball

When I started playing Little League, I was pretty much completely unathletic. As such, I was a part-timer in right field, which is where you stick the fat kid who sucks. The fat kid who's smart about the game learns to be a catcher, which is what I decided I wanted to do after one season of being bored in the outfield.

I did what any over-eager, book-smart Gary Carter-worshipping kid would do when trying to get better at sports: I went to the library. Found a couple instructional books on baseball and taught myself the fundamentals of catching. Sure enough, I got the starting catching job on my team the next year. I caught for every team I played on for the next 5 years, so I have a special place in my heart for those who don "the tools of ignorance."

Unfortunately, in fantasy baseball catchers are a liability and are more much more likely to hurt your squad than help it. Last year I spent a lot of my budget early on Victor Martinez because, like most years, offensive talent is thin at catcher. You can usually find some upside guys at shortstop or second base once the studs are gone, but big league managers tend to like defensive catchers who work well with a pitching staff, even if they can't hit a lick. Probably because a lot of managers are former catchers. Can you name the big league skippers who played catcher? Answer at the bottom.

Anyway, here are my catching tiers for the 2011 season. I looked at each player's stats from the past 3 seasons (when available) and made a rough projection based on average production, increasing or declining trend line, expected playing time, and injury risk. I then took the top 20 catchers as rated by Yahoo (because the UL is a 20 team league) and came up with an average stat line. Tiers are determined based on how many categories each player rates above average. I've also included what each player was drafted for in the 2010 auction as a reference.

NOTE: This is the only catcher draft tier you will see this year that does not have Joe Mauer at the top. I will explain when we get there.

6 categories:
None. Catchers on the whole do not steal enough bases to matter in a head-to-head league and most of them don't run at all.

5 categories:
Victor Martinez - $27
Buster Posey - $1 (I think he'll go for a little more this year...)
Brian McCann - $27
Geovany Soto - $9
Jorge Posada - $13
Batting average is the key stat with this group as I have them all projected to hit .270 or better. Martinez and Posada are both primarily playing DH this year, which will either be a blessing or a curse: catchers are involved in the game at all times, so there may be a drop-off in mental focus that may lead to a drop-off in production as they adjust to the new role. Buster Posey had a great rookie season, but there's always the worry of a sophomore slump. McCann is a reliable quantity; Soto, maybe not so much, but I expect a good season from him.

4 categories:
Joe Mauer - $38
Mike Napoli - $9
Carlos Santana - undrafted
Healthy or not, I really don't see Mauer's home run numbers coming anywhere near the 28 he slugged in 2009. Also, consider that he only hit 1 dinger for the home fans at Target Field last year. Still, he'll be a beast in the other 4 categories as long as his knees hold up. Napoli should benefit big-time in the power department from his new digs in Arlington. Santana's a wild card: he's got the potential, but he didn't get enough ABs in 2010 to shake off any doubts.

3 categories:
Kurt Suzuki - $14
Miguel Montero - $9
Suzuki is one of the most underrated hitters at this position simply because of the team around him. I still think he'll amass enough runs, homers and RBIs to contribute. Montero suffered through an injury-riddled 2010, but I'm expecting a bounceback.

2 categories:
None.
Scary. That means the ten guys up there are gonna get paid with this steep of a talent dropoff.

1 category:
Matt Wieters - $19
John Jaso - undrafted
John Buck - undrafted
Chris Iannetta - $1
J.P. Arencibia - undrafted
Russell Martin - $6
A.J. Pierzynski - $5
Yadier Molina - $1
Chris Snyder - undrafted
I am not at all sold on Matt Wieters. This guy has been declared a "can't miss" prospect three years in a row now, and he's missed twice. I usually like to pick up the "can't miss" rookie in his second year after he failed to meet expectations, but I'm not gambling that high on Wieters, no way. John Jaso is going to leadoff, so if you're in a bind for runs, he's an interesting option. I'd love to see Iannetta and Arencibia power their way through a season, but the batting averages on those guys will probably be brutal.

0 categories (but with upside):
Carlos Ruiz - $1
Miguel Olivo - $2
Rod Barajas - $1
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - undrafted
Alex Avila - $1
Nick Hundley - undrafted
Ruiz, Olivo and Barajas are all known quantities who won't hurt you too bad if you lose a better player to injury. Of the three, I'd probably prefer Ruiz since he's the only one playing in a hitter's park. I unfortunately put the buck down on Avila last year toward the end, but this year I think he's definitely worth checking out. Salty's really intriguing: he'll be the starter for the Red Sox this year and he's shown that he can swing the bat, but all anybody can talk about is whether or not he's conquered the yips. All signs this spring point to "yes," but mental issues aren't as easy to diagnose and treat as hamstrings.

I'm curious how the catching situation will work out in the Bronx. They brought in Russell Martin, but he's not 100% yet. Francisco Cervelli was a capable replacement when Posada was hurt last year. Jesus Montero can mash, but he might not be skilled enough defensively for Joe Girardi's liking. This will be resolved by our draft date, but if I had to draft tomorrow I'd consider tossing out $1 on Montero just because the position is so thin.

What is Pittsburgh going to do with Ryan Doumit? They couldn't move his $5 million salary in the offseason, so now he's stuck in a backup role between catcher and right field. He's a much better offensive option than Chris Snyder, but Snyder's a veteran who can deftly handle a pitching staff.

It saddens me that Pudge Rodriguez is still playing baseball. He's about 4 years past his usefulness and it's starting to get to the point where hanging on is tarnishing his legacy. He should be in the conversation as the greatest catcher to ever play in the majors with Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra and Roy Campanella. WHo knows, maybe he can become a manager when he finally hangs 'em up.

Former catchers with current MLB managing gigs are: Bruce Bochy*, Bob Geren, Joe Girardi*, Fredi Gonzalez, Jim Leyland*, Joe Maddon, Mike Scioscia*, Eric Wedge and Ned Yost.

*Won a World Series as a skipper. See, catchers are smarter than you.