Superstition

^Kinda surprised he can lift his arm this high.

Brandon Webb felt discomfort in his surgically repaired right shoulder and was shut down in his rehab assignment. In an interview with the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, when asked if he would be able to come back Webb said "How many times can you do it? Who knows? I have no idea." One gets the impression that Webb is done for this season and probably for the rest of his career.

You can't fault a guy for taking a chance on Webb. After all, he did spend six seasons dominating hitters with a virtually unhittable sinker. He never had breathtaking velocity, but the movement on that sinker fooled enough hitters that he was able to post 1,065 strikeouts in a little over 1,300 innings. Even when they made contact, Webb was able to minimize the damage: he induced over 64% of opposing batters into ground balls from 2003-2008, leading all major league pitchers over that span.

So it's reasonable to think that Webb could make a comeback and regain some of his previous form. Maybe he wouldn't be the dominating pitcher he once was, but if he could continue to get grounders and keep the ball in the yard (only Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw have given up fewer HR/9 since 2003) he'd be a valuable asset to a winning team in Texas. And medical science has progressed to the point where a pitcher's arm can be rebuilt almost to better condition than before an injury, so why not spend $2 on Brandon Webb on draft day?

As it turns out, Webb's shoulder is not okay even after two years on the sidelines recuperating from surgery. He's been knocked around in his few rehab starts at the Single- and Double-A levels. Now, he's shut down indefinitely with soreness in his shoulder and we may have seen the last of the best sinkerball pitcher of the last 20 years.

I've been carrying Brandon Webb on my DL since opening day, hoping that he'd make a return to the bigs and help my virtual ball club. But I'm starting to think that maybe Webb's struggles - and the delusional thought process that led me to stick with him and other stiffs on my squad - are what has been keeping my team near the cellar all season. Maybe Webb's injury caused Adam Dunn's burst appendix, Shin-Soo Choo's broken hand, Erik Bedard's strained knee. Maybe I'm running an infirmary and not a fantasy baseball team. It sounds crazy and it is, but other than bad luck and coincidence, I can only believe that it's either Webb's fault or the entire universe is out to get me.

So, happy trails Brandon Webb. I really do hope that you're able to come back and be an effective major league pitcher again. But more so, I hope somebody else in this league picks you up and stashes you away so they can inherit your curse.

Who Didn't See This Coming?

NEWS FLASH: Erik Bedard is injured.

For the third straight season, Erik Bedard makes 15 starts and then heads to the disabled list. In fairness, Bedard's 2008 and 2009 campaigns had a short DL break *during* his 15 starts, only to be capped with a season-ending arm injury. The 2011 Bedard made 15 straight starts, looking downright dominant for the last 11. And the injury that's landed him back on the DL is a sprained left knee, which is a relief considering that this is a guy who missed all of last season recovering from shoulder surgery.

Still, Bedard's injury leaves me in a really tough spot. Jon Lester and Dan Haren continue to anchor my starting pitching, but the situation looks pretty bleak past those guys. Josh Collmenter has gotten tagged for 5+ earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts as it appears the league has caught up with the tomahawk-throwing righty. Kyle McClellan has been inconsistent since his return from the DL, allowing 27 baserunners in 17.1 innings over three starts. Derek Holland continues to be ineffective at home, sporting a 5.89 ERA in Arlington, over 2 runs higher than his road mark. Jeff Francis has the opposite problem, posting a 3.41 ERA at home and a 6.75 away from Kauffman Stadium. Jesse Litsch is still on the DL and may not have a spot in the rotation open for him upon his return.

The Phil Coke era is over, by the way. Jim Leyland pulled the reliever-turned-starter from the rotation and put him back in the bullpen to be used as a lefty specialist. Coke showed some potential but ultimately couldn't string together enough consistent outings to keep his job, especially after a late May DL stint. He was replaced by Charlie Furbush, who I'm sure was never made fun of as a kid.

So I have 6 starting pitchers, 2 of whom cannot be used half the time due to their home road splits and 2 more that are showing signs of decline. Starting pitching is an incredibly rare and valuable commodity in a 20-team league, so naturally there are no legitimate options in the free agent pool. The Marlins just recalled Brad Hand to pitch today against the Rangers, which is not exactly a prime fantasy matchup for a dude with exactly 3 big league starts. Greg Reynolds will take the ball for the Rockies today against the Royals, but this will be his only start and then he'll be sent back to Colorado Springs. The Pirates are going to give Brad Lincoln a look today against the Nats; he's been pitching very well at AAA Indianapolis, but this is likely to be a spot start as well and he'll be sent back after the game.

My team has no chance of competing if I'm going to be heavily relying on spot start call-ups to give me innings. But who am I kidding? My team has no chance to compete anyway.

They Call It A Winning Streak: 6-5-1 (54-76-14 overall)

I should have won by a lot more this week, but my pitching staff turned in a second straight week of 8+ losses, a 5.00+ ERA and a WHIP north of 1.40. Pitching has been the strength of my squad all year (I lead the league in wins, for what that's worth), but it looks like that's headed in the wrong direction. The bullpen alone posted a 1-3 record for the week with a 7.53 ERA and a 2.37 WHIP. Ouch.

Offense is showing some signs of life, though I'm still having trouble plating runs and putting up a respectable OPS number. Guessing it's mostly OBP that I'm lacking, not slugging percentage. This hurts particularly, since I tend to build my teams around the Moneyball philosophy: you have to score runs to win and you can't score runs unless you get on base.

Aside: you really should watch the trailer for Moneyball. Go ahead, take a few minutes. I'll still be here...

Picked up Lucas Duda to fill the roster spot opened up in the wake of Shin-Soo Choo's injury. They're talking 6 weeks minimum and possible surgery which could sideline him for longer. This is gonna sting a bit.

Just when I thought Adam Dunn was coming around, he falls back into his season-long slump. He's 2 for his last 26 (.077) with 16 strikeouts. He's now on pace to hit about 15 home runs and strike out over 200 times. Dunn's never crossed 200 Ks (only Mark Reynolds ever has) but he has whiffed 194, 195 and 199 times. In those years he hit 46, 40 and 38 homers respectively. Without the power numbers, Adam Dunn is little more than Mark Bellhorn.

The good news is that if this were a roto league, I'd be in 17th place. Unfortunately, since it's head-to-head, I'm in 19th again, despite my 2 week winning streak. Nuts...

What They Giveth, They Taketh Away

I wouldn't say I was gloating about Pujols' injury, just looking for the silver lining. To that end, i don't think I deserved any karmic retribution by way of Shin-Soo Choo getting a broken thumb courtesy of a Jonathan Sanchez fastball. Still, it's bothersome that this injury would befall Choo just as he was starting to come around at the plate and giving me some hope of climbing up the standings.

On the bright side, this clears up my clogged outfield problem for the next six weeks, as I'll only have Ethier, Jay, Denorfia, McLouth and Revere to rotate through the lineup. I really don't know who I'm going to get to replace Choo on the roster. There aren't many intriguing position players available in free agency. Brent Lillibridge is out there, but he doesn't get enough playing time to be useful. I could also pick up the injured Jed Lowrie and stash him away on the DL, but there's no timetable on when he'll return to big league action.

So this is a huge blow to my team, but I'm trying not to let it get me down. I mean, how much worse can it get?

Uh-oh

So yesterday, I said Jon Jay would lose playing time with a fully healthy Cardinals outfield. Scratch that, I guess. Albert Pujols' broken arm means Lance Berkman will slide into first base duty, opening up right field for Jay.

You never want to see a guy get hurt, but the reality of the game is that you have to be in position to take advantage of unfortunate circumstances. It's why you handcuff backups to injury prone stars.

So I have another full-time outfielder for the next 4-6 weeks. Jay's trade value just went up. Maybe it's time for me to make a deal.

Learning to Crawl (8-4 this week, 48-71-13 overall)

I've been away from the blog for a few weeks. I got married. Kinda took up some of my time. Maybe that's why my squad plummeted to 19th out of 20 over the last month and a half. Time to get back to business.

Lot of changes since the last time I posted. I've made a fundamental shift in my attitude regarding saves. I don't regret my non-investment in closers on draft day (though it's pretty apparent that I wasted most of my budget on chump hitters). However, just because I didn't spend dollars doesn't mean I'm not looking for saves. As previously mentioned, I picked up Mark Melancon of the Astros who was promptly elevated to the closer role upon Brandon Lyon's arm injury. I also took a gamble on Fernando Salas of the Cardinals which paid off as he emerged from the bullpen chaos in St. Louis. Slim Jim gave up on Frank Francisco last week and I quickly picked him up; looks like he's back in his closer role in Toronto. I also made a move for Matt Thornton who may earn his White Sox closer job back from Sergio Santos. Even if he doesn't, he's been a historically good reliever. Not to mention I got Jonny Venters for $2 on draft day. Smart.

I lost both of my 1B cheap power gambits. Kila Ka'aihue got sent down in favor of phenom Eric Hosmer. Adam LaRoche finally gave up on trying to play through a torn labrum in his shoulder and he's done for the season. That's $14 down the toilet. The only first baseman I have left on my squad is Adam Dunn, who finally is showing some signs that he's ready to turn things around. You would not believe some of the trade offers I've been getting for Dunn. Apparently when you're in next-to-last place, everyone in your league seems to think that you're actually very, very stupid and gullible. I'm not going to trade a 31-year-old guy with 361 career homers for a backup outfielder and a pitcher who's going to be on the DL for 2 more months. I'm also not going to trade him for a guy you picked up this morning, Hot Karl.

Back to the pitching staff, I took a flier on tomahawk-throwing righty Josh Collmenter of the Diamondbacks which has worked out pretty well so far. In 8 starts, he's 3-3 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 28 strikeouts (5.44 K/9). I'm thinking that he might be a sell-high candidate, though he's going to get plenty of turns against anemic west-coast offenses for the rest of the summer. Still, if I can get a solid bat for him, now would be the time before hitters get a book on him.

I'm also carrying 6 outfielders right now: Choo, Ethier, McLouth, Chris Denorfia, Ben Revere and Jon Jay. By the time the trade deadline comes around, it's possible that McLouth will be in a backup role as rumors are swirling that the Braves are looking to add an outfield bat. Jay is already losing playing time now that Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman and Colby Rasmus are all healthy. Revere will get playing time until Jason Kubel and Jim Thome come back, but he's impressed the Twins brass so far. I just don't know if I'll be able to pull myself out of the basement with Denorfia as a starting outfielder.

Speaking of the basement, I played AT&Love this week. As you may remember, this is the team that didn't show up for the draft and ended up with a really sorry squad. To his credit, dude has been trying the Dwight Schrute trading method to better his team, though there's really only so much talent you're going to get when you start with scrubs. Of course, he ended up with Alex Avila on draft day, then cut him and he has ended up being one of the few bright spots on my pathetic offense.

I ended up winning 8-4 despite some horrific pitching: my four losses were in the win and loss categories (3-8, ouch), ERA (5.49) and WHIP (1.43). My starters have not been as solid as they were earlier in the season. Kyle McClellan and Phil Coke just returned from the DL and aren't quite back in the groove yet. Dan Haren and Jon Lester have looked average at best. Jeff Francis is nearly useless away from Kaufman Stadium. Derek Holland is nearly useless at home. Collmenter has gotten tagged in his last two starts. The lone broght spot has been Erik Bedard, and who thought we'd be saying that this season? Besides me, of course.

I swept the offense categories, bringing home my first wins of the season in runs, homers and OPS. These were pretty much all squeakers though and a couple of bad breaks or wrong roster calls could have cost me the week. It's really sad that this lineup can barely beat an offense cobbled together from $1 draft day buys, waiver wire pickups and cast-offs from other teams.

I improve my ranking to 18th, 1/2 game up over the Love Rollercoasters and 17 games behind the division leader, Last Year's Champs. Halfway through our season and I've got a lot of work ahead of me. 8 teams make the playoffs, so I've got 10 teams to leapfrog if I'm going to have any chance. The bats need to wake up. Wish I had a hitting coach to fire so I could send a message to these guys...

The Darren O'Day Era is Over

Darren O'Day leaked his injury status to Facebook today and it turns out that his hip labrum is torn and will require surgery. I promptly took the opportunity to give him his limping papers. But who should replace him on the roster?

Punting saves doesn't mean ignoring opportunities to pick them up, hence why I took a flyer on O'Day in the first place. I just didn't want to spend draft dollars on closers and I'm not going to be heartbroken if I lose saves every week. Let's back up and take a look at the dollar values and April stats of the top ten (eleven, actually) highest paid closers:

Carlos Marmol, $25: 1-1, 5 SV, 15 K, 2.53 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (10.2 IP)
Mariano Rivera, $22: 1-0, 7 SV, 9 K, 2.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP (10.2 IP)
Heath Bell, $21: 1-0, 5 SV, 7 K, 0.90 ERA, 0.90 WHIP (10.0 IP)
Neftali Feliz, $20: 0-0, 5 SV, 6 K, 1.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP (8.1 IP) *injured*
Brian Wilson, $20: 0-1, 6 SV, 8 K, 8.64 ERA, 1.68 WHIP (8.1 IP)
Joakim Soria, $19: 1-0, 5 SV, 5 K, 5.59 ERA, 1.55 WHIP (9.2 IP)
Jonathan Papelbon, $19: 0-0, 5 SV, 11 K, 2.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP (8.1 IP)
John Axford, $18: 0-1, 5 SV, 11 K, 5.79 ERA, 1.61 WHIP (9.1 IP)
Jose Valverde, $18: 2-0, 5 SV, 9 K, 0.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP (9.2 IP)
Francisco Rodriguez, $17: 1-0, 5 SV, 13 K, 2.08 ERA, 1.73 WHIP (8.2 IP)
Matt Thornton, $17: 0-2, 0 SV, 7 K, 6.43 ERA, 2.43 WHIP (7.0 IP) *removed from closer role*

Marmol, Rivera, Bell, Papelbon and Valverde were clearly worth the investment. Feliz was doing well until he got hurt. K-Rod is converting saves and getting out of trouble, but that WHIP suggests that the situation could change at any time. Wilson, Soria and Axford have struggled but kept their jobs. Thornton has been a complete failure.

When you consider that the next two closers on the list are Jose Contreras (injured) and Jonathan Broxton (removed), that means only 5 of the 13 top drafted closers can be considered good investments. Makes me feel a lot better about spending my money on other guys. I just wish those guys were performing.

Anyway, since the available starting pitching in the free agent pool is, dare I say, crappy, I checked through the available list of middle relievers. Slim Jim dropped the Padres' Luke Gregerson, one of MLB's elite bullpen strikeout men. Unfortunately, he's on the waiver wire until Friday. While my waiver priority is only 15 out of 20, I don't want to go back to the back over a middle reliever. If he clears waivers, I'll probably pick him up. However, I could use a player now.

Enter Mark Melancon (pictured above). The former Yankee prospect was traded to Houston in the Lance Berkman deal last summer. So far this season, he's posted a 2-1 record, 0 saves, 10 Ks, 1.54 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 11.2 innings. Good numbers, but the most attractive thing about Melancon is that he's the set-up man behind Brandon Lyon, who has a tenuous grip on the Astros closer job (2-1, 4 SV, 4 K, 4.82 ERA, 1.82 WHIP in 9.1 innings). If Lyon loses the gig, Melancon is likely to take over as closer.

Which would explain why Last Year's Champ sent me two trade offers for him. LYC previously owned him and, ironically, Melancon's only loss this season directly contributed to my 6-5 victory two weeks ago. LYC also owns Brandon Lyon and clearly believes in the handcuff rule. He's not offering me much: one offer is a one-to-one trade for injured Indians starter Mitch Talbot, the other offer is Talbot, Joe Mauer (also injured) and Royals OF Melky Cabrera for Melancon, Jonny Venters and Adam Dunn. I'm not seriously considering either offer, but mostly just because I get an injured player (or two) back no matter what and I already have 3 full DL spots and 2 other injured players taking up spots on my bench.

Clearly LYC wants Melancon, so I'm thinking of making a counter-offer for a healthy player, maybe Angels catcher Hank Conger. But I'll probably keep him and hope he grabs the closer job. 2 or 3 saves in a week can be enough to win in this league, so one closer may be enough to compete.

Drubbed 1-9-2 (11-21-4 Overall)

Last week was a lot closer than the 1-9-2 record would indicate. I only lost runs and steals by one each and i tied homers and wins. A couple of breaks my way and, well, I still lose, but by a respectable 5-7 instead of this embarrassing 1-9-2. This beatdown drops me to 17th out of 20 and I'm starting to panic.

A panic that was evident in my impulse pickup of Darren O'Day. Rangers closer Neftali Feliz hit the DL on Saturday and the most likely candidates to get saves in his absence were the finesse righty O'Day and the ancient lefties Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes. I had one roster move left for the week and I gambled it on O'Day, who had been struggling (1.58 WHIP) but getting himself out of trouble (2.84 ERA). In fairness, O'Day's numbers over his past two seasons in Texas have been excellent: 1.93 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 7.53 K/9, 101/30 K/BB ratio. Oliver's numbers over the same span are good too: 2.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.69 K/9, 130/37 K/BB.

So why did I pick O'Day over Oliver? (Rhodes was already taken, BTW.) Simple: he's younger, right-handed and has been ridiculously effective for two years straight. But my first instinct was to take Oliver and I went with O'Day instead. I questioned my gut, did a ton of research, checked the local rags for the Rangers beat writers' reporting, read the expert opinions, blah, blah, blah. I talked myself into O'Day out of panic and fear, knowing that Oliver was going to get the gig (even though it hadn't come out of Ron Washington's mouth yet). That night, Darren Oliver got the call in the 9th and converted the save. The next morning, a smarter manager grabbed Oliver. The next night Rhodes got the call. And today it came out that O'Day's been battling hip soreness for the last week or so. So I'm stuck with a struggling, hurt middle reliever with a mid-80s fastball.

Want to know the depth of my panic? Casey McGehee sprained his thumb Monday night in a collision at first base with Joey Votto while trying to leg out an infield single to keep a 9th inning rally alive. No word how long he'll be out. I don't have a backup for him and I'm actually considering giving ex-Angel and new Pirate SS/3B Brandon Wood a shot. Wood was my Opening Day third baseman last year and I endured his pathetic offensive output for over a month before I started up the revolving door at 3B. Now I might be back for more. I should change the name of my team to Battered Wife Syndrome.

After 3 weeks last year, I was 20-14-2. I feel like this team has more talent than last year's squad, but I'm just not getting any breaks. Adam Dunn is 5-for-43 (.116) with 21 Ks since his appendectomy. Shin-Soo Choo has hits in 8 of his last 10 games, but is hitting just .225 over that span. I know I took some chances on untested guys (Kila Ka'aihue, Phil Coke, Kyle Drabek) and some guys I hoped would bounce back (Aaron Hill, Nate McLouth, Erik Bedard), but I thought I had them balanced against enough sure bets (Dunn, Choo, Andre Ethier, Jon Lester, Dan Haren) that I'd still be able to compete. I have serious doubts.

Peace.

A day after I espoused the notion that starting pitching, no matter how terrible, is invaluable in a 20-team league, I'm sending James McDonald packing.

0-2, 10.13 ERA, 1.98 WHIP and 12 Ks in 18-2/3 innings (4 starts). He only made it out of the 5th inning once. With any pitcher, there's always a chance he could give me a couple of solid starts or even completely turn it around, but I don't see it in the cards. His fastball velocity is down about 5 mph from last fall and, well, he still pitches for the Pirates, so the W-L record is going to be suspect.

Picked up 2B Daniel Murphy from the Mets, just in case Aaron Hill hits the DL. MRI on Hill's leg was inconclusive.

However, this still leaves me short on starting pitching. Well, short for me since I'm punting saves. I've got nine active starters and three more on the DL (Brandon Webb, Andrew Cashner and Justin Duchscherer) but none of them are close to returning. Cashner would be first as he's starting his rehab throwing program today. The reports on Webb are mildly encouraging, but the guy hasn't pitched in the bigs in over two years AND he recently told a reporter that he'd take a relief role if that's all there was for him. He might be onto something there, as the Rangers rotation looks pretty good apart from Colby Lewis' early struggles. Duchscherer was recently transferred to the 60-day DL, though it was primarily a move to free a spot on the 40-man roster. There's no good timetable for his return.

As expected, the free agent/waiver market is barren. The only available guy with a start in the next four days is Brad Bergesen, but he's pitching against the Yankees. No deal.

A Win Is A Win: 6-5-1 (10-12-2 overall)

Adam LaRoche, I take back everything bad I ever said about you. Your 8th inning homer against the Brewers on Sunday clinched a victory in batting average, .257 to .249. I know, that doesn't seem altogether that close, but between your three hits and Casey McGehee's 4 hits in the doubleheader, you gave me what I needed to best last year's league champ. Just don't exacerbate the tear in your left shoulder and we'll get along just fine.

My pitching gambit almost backfired. I was down one in wins and tied in losses. I started Jon Lester, Dan Haren and Jeff Francis to try to win one of those categories. Lester and Haren brought home W's, but Francis got beaten by the Mariners. My opponent benched his only Sunday starter (Barry Enright), who eventually took the loss in that game. However, Astros reliever Mark Melancon got battered by the Padres and took an L. At the end of the day, I clinched the victory in wins and had a 4-4 tie in losses. Trust your guys, and with a little luck they'll pull through for you.

I won steals (8), batting average (.257), wins (5), strikeouts (61), ERA (2.90) and WHIP (1.21). I tied losses (4) and lost everything else. It's amazing to me that I was actively trying to punt steals in the draft and I've won that category two weeks in a row now.

The beginning of this week has been a role reversal as far as season trends go. My offense is still not hitting for average or OPS, but we're competitive in runs, homers, RBIs and steals. Pitching, however, has been a struggle so far with Kyle Drabek, Phil Coke and Erik Bedard all getting roughed up. I only get one start each from Lester and Haren this week, so I decided to start everyone, including Bedard and James McDonald. I also picked up the A's Tyson Ross who's filling in for the injured Dallas Braden. Had to drop Joaquin Benoit to make room, but there's a chance I could get him back or at least pick up another similar middle reliever like Joel Peralta from the Rays. As badly as I wanted to drop the underperforming Bedard or McDonald, starting pitching is at an absolute premium in this league and Ross won't be in the rotation long enough to give up an established starter.

Bad news: Aaron Hill had to be lifted from Tuesday's game with a "sore hamstring." It was bad enough that they had to perform an MRI on Wednesday; no report on the outcome yet. Hill hadn't shown the power bat yet, but was making up for it on the basepaths. In fact, he hurt his hamstring on his 6th steal of the year, tying his career high. He was hitting .242 at the time of his injury, which was a marked improvement over last year's .205 or even his struggles for most of the first two weeks. Phillies infielder Wilson Valdez is my backup, but if Hill ends up on the DL, I'll have to hit the free agent pool for 2B at-bats. With Rule 5 experiment Brad Emaus gone, Daniel Murphy is on the good side of the 2B platoon for the Mets. Hill's potential replacement, Jayson Nix, comes off waivers on Friday. Apart from those two, the cupboard is bare. This league is DEEP.

A Matter of Trust

Looking at the matchup situation on Saturday morning, it seemed like an easy call. My opponent this week (last year's champ) had Indians hurler Josh Tomlin and inconsistent Royals pitcher Sean O'Sullivan going on Saturday with the less-than-stellar D-backs righty Barry Enright scheduled for Sunday. My Saturday had Derek Holland against the Yankees, James McDonald against the Reds and Kyle McClellan matched up against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. On Sunday I'll have my aces - Jon Lester and Dan Haren - as well as the surprising Jeff Francis against the anemic Seattle offense. All categories (except saves) are either close or competitive, though I'm leading all of them going into Saturday's games.

Thinking about last week, I decided to play a little closer to the vest: Holland has been very good, McDonald has been lackluster, and McClellan has been lucky but effective. I start Holland on principle, well, two principles actually: he's throwing well and screw the Yankees. I bench McDonald against the red-hot Cincinnati offense. I vacillated on McClellan: he's getting wins, but matched up against Kershaw makes his probability of losing much higher. Ultimately, I benched him.

Holland guts out seven strong innings against the Bombers, only to give up a 2-run homer to Robinson Cano in the eighth. Loss.

McDonald gets lit up by the Reds, giving up nine hits and seven runs (six earned) in 4-1/3 innings. Benching him turned out to be a very smart play, but now I also have to think about whether he's worth keeping on the roster. I'll have Andrew Cashner back in a couple of weeks and I'll likely have to make a roster spot for him.

All Kyle McClellan did was beat the Dodgers, holding them to one run and six hits over seven innings, lowering his ERA to 1.89 on the season. Kershaw did not fare so well, giving up five runs on six hits and five walks. He did strike out five, but had to be lifted after 4-2/3 innings and 111 pitches.

Part of my draft strategy was to rely on young pitchers with upside. That's how I got guys like McClellan, Kyle Drabek, and Phil Coke on this team. Same way I got Mat Latos, C.J. Wilson and Wade Davis on last year's squad. In the early going, I need to learn to trust these guys more. I'm going to get burned every once in a while (see Erik Bedard) but there's really only one way to let these bets pay off: let them play.

So going into Sunday's games, I'm down 4-3 in wins and tied 3-3 in losses. I have pretty safe leads in strikeouts and ERA and a smaller lead in WHIP. I'm in the exact same spot I was in last week, sitting on a loss and a tie with three starters to go. I'm going to let it ride again, though it's not that tough a call to let Lester and Haren throw. I've got some faith in Jeff Francis against the Mariners, though if it were just about any other team, I'd sit him down.

My offense still isn't showing much, though there have been a few bright spots. Aaron Hill lit up the Red Sox the last couple of days, bringing his average up to .241. The OPS is still a dismal .555 and he hasn't left the yard yet, but he does have five steals on the young season, only one short of his career high. Shin-Soo Choo is showing signs of breaking out of his slump, going 10-for-29 (.345) in his last 8 games. Andre Ethier's .386 average is somewhat deceiving, as he's hitting a blistering .500 off righties, but only .190 off lefties. He's a career .245 hitter against southpaws, so I'm expecting an overall dropoff at some point since that .500 against righties is wholly unsustainable.

4-7-1

This one's a little dated, sorry.

Going into the last day of my Week 1 matchup, I found myself down 5-4 in the wins category and tied at 3 in losses. I had an adequate lead in strikeouts and a commanding advantage in ERA and WHIP. I had three starters slated to go on Sunday afternoon: Derek Holland, James McDonald and Erik Bedard (pictured above.) My opponent had no starters going on Sunday, so I had a decision to make:

1) Bench my starters and settle for a tie and a loss.
2) Take a shot with the best starter I've got and hope to tie in wins.
3) Go for the gusto, start everybody and shoot for the win in wins, even if it means taking a loss in losses.

There's an old saying that you can't win the pennant in April, but you can lose it. There's also an old saying that fortune favors the bold. I decided to start all three guys. No guts, no glory.

Holland went six shutout innings and beat the Orioles, drawing me into a tie in the wins category. McDonald pitched to a no decision against the Rockies. Bedard, unfortunately, got shelled for six runs in four innings of work against the surprising Indians. At the end of the day, I had a tie and a loss just like I did in the morning.

I lose 4-7-1, but it's close. My offense is less than impressive with Dunn out and Choo struggling, but I end up winning RBIs and only losing homers by 1, runs by 5, average by 3 points and OPS by 22 points. Wins and losses are unpredictable, but the skill numbers on my pitching staff (86 Ks, 3.01 ERA and 1.07 WHIP) all look really good.

By the Numbers

If you had asked me before Opening Day what number would be higher, Butler's field goal percentage in the national title game, or Shin-Soo Choo's batting average after the first 6 games, I would've picked Butler, easy. As it turns out, I'm still right.

Butler shot an abysmal 18.8% (.188) from the floor, the worst offensive performance in an NCAA title game. By comparison, they shot 44.6% for the entirety of the 2010-11 season; not great, but good enough to win.

Shin-Soo Choo, a .294 career hitter, is 2-for-24 after 6 games for a whopping .083 average. Not exactly what I expect from a $38 draft day investment.

Couple that with Adam Dunn's emergency appendectomy on Wednesday and the biggest pieces of my offense are more or less out of commission at the moment. My .222 batting average is not going to cut it, though this week's opponent isn't exactly killing the ball either: I'm only trailing him by 6 runs, 4 HR, 5 SB, 31 points in average and 109 points in OPS. 3 solid days and I could make up some serious ground.

My Saltalamacchia gambit is looking less and less viable. He's getting run on every night by guys who want to test his arm-brain connection. The throw down to second is generally a reflex action and wasn't Salty's problem. Getting the throw back to the pitcher was where the yips showed themselves. Still, he has to prove himself defensively capable, and failing that he needs to at least hit better than the .071 he's posted thus far. There are rumors that the Red Sox are talking with the Nationals about Pudge Rodriguez. He would at least be solid defensively even if he doesn't sting the ball like he used to. That would put Salty out of a job.

So I grabbed Tigers catcher Alex Avila today and sent Melvin Mora packing. Like blackjack, sometimes it pays to have insurance on your bets. Avila's hitting .294 with a pair of dingers and seven RBI to start the season. This was the kind of output I thought we'd see from him last year, but it looks like I jumped the gun.

On the positive side, my pitching has looked really strong so far. I'm sitting on a 3-2 record that would look a lot better if not for a few bullpen implosions, plus 56 strikeouts, a 2.78 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Couldn't be happier with those numbers (aside from the wins, of course.) Jon Lester bounced back from that putrid Opening Day start to throw 7 scoreless against the Tribe yesterday, punching out 9 in the process. I've also got two quality starts from Dan Haren so far with 12 strikeouts over 14 innings of work. We'll see how Kyle Drabek handles the Angels in Anaheim tonight.

Also, Manny Ramirez retired from baseball today. Apparently MLB notified him of a drug test issue and he promptly filed his retirement paperwork. Happy trails, Man-child...

The Ugliest Trade

First trade of the season, and what a blockbuster:

AT&Love (the team that didn't show up for the draft) gets:

Aaron Harang - SP - San Diego Padres

Hot Karl gets:

Brandon Inge - 3B - Detroit Tigers


A.J. Pierzynski - C - Chicago White Sox

Advantage: Hot Karl. Not only does he get rid of the daywalker Aaron Harang (who I'm pretty sure even Petco Park will not help this year), but he also gets a potential power threat in Preparation H Raymond, er, Brandon Inge. Seriously, I don't know if two uglier people could have been traded for each other. If you think you can top this, leave it in the comments.

AT&Love does make a respectable move getting rid of Pierzynski, though. The only thing A.J. does well is make you hate him. I don't think White Sox fans even like him, and White Sox fans would cheer for Glenn Beck if he wore black pinstripes...

Too Early To Worry

I have to keep reminding myself that it's far too soon to panic. I mean, sure, Phil Coke (a supposed lefty specialist) came in on Opening Day and immediately gave up a homer to the lefty Curtis Granderson, taking the loss in the process. Sure, Jon Lester gave up a homer to the first batter he faced in the Sox season opener, then two more for good measure. No cause for alarm, right?

Right.

Coke is as untrustworthy as any relief pitcher, though I'm really curious now to see how he handles a rotation gig. And Jon Lester is a perennially slow starter, with a career April ERA of 4.79, over a run higher than his career 3.58 number.

Still, it's not hard to start feeling a little panic about this squad. So when I got this trade offer on Friday, I gave it some serious consideration:

Slim Jim gets:
Adam Dunn - 1B - CWS

Chin Music gets:
David Ortiz - DH - BOS
Frank Francisco (DL) - RP - TOR
Jon Rauch - RP - TOR

I've got some depth at first base with Dunn, Adam LaRoche and Kila Ka'aihue, but I'd be taking on a hitter who can only play in my Utility spot. That makes my roster quite a bit less flexible. In exchange for that liability, I'm offered the closing situation for the Jays: Rauch for now, Francisco when he comes back. I've already decided not to play for saves, so it's not much of a consolation. Of course, I made a couple of great trades with Slim Jim last year that took my team to the next level, but I don't get that impression with this deal. Pass.

Meanwhile, Dunn is pulling his weight, hitting .400 with a home run and 5 RBI. Seems to be adjusting to the DH role pretty well. Of course, three games against the Indians will make just about anybody look good.

Why shouldn't I panic? How about Kyle Drabek? In his first start of the season (and only the third of his young career), Drabek held the Twins hitless for 5.1 innings before giving up a single to Denard Span. It would be the only hit he gave up in his seven innings of work, striking out seven along the way. Anything can happen with young pitchers, but he's looking like a pretty good $2 upside pick so far.

It's All Downhill From Here

Wednesday night's Ugueth League auction draft was, quite simply, bonkers. With 20 teams, price inflation is an expected part of the game. There's only so much elite talent to go around and if you want the edge, you've got to pay for it. In last year's draft, 4 players commanded salaries of $52 or more: Albert Pujols ($57), Hanley Ramirez ($55) Ryan Braun ($52) and Ryan Howard ($52). Each team gets $260 to spend, so dropping 20% or more of your budget on one player is a generally risky move. Improbably, in the 2010 draft, Pujols and HanRam were both drafted by the same team; they finished 7th.

In the 2011 draft, 10 players earned a $52 dollar price tag or higher, and two of those eclipsed the $60 barrier:
Troy Tulowitzki - $61
Carlos Gonzalez - $60
Albert Pujols - $58
Robinson Cano - $56
Carl Crawford - $56
Alex Rodriguez - $54
Adrian Gonzalez - $54
Hanley Ramirez - $54
Josh Hamilton - $52
Evan Longoria - $52

I expected Tulo and HanRam to command a lot of bucks considering the thin talent pool at shortstop, but I never would have guessed that anyone would have dropped $61. I went into this draft with the intention of not spending more than $40 on any one player, but the price tags on these top-tier players made it difficult for me to stick to my guns.

Part of the inflation probably had to do with the league's new rules on transactions. We've capped pickups at 4 per week in order to keep people from streaming pitchers. It's already hard to work that strategy in a 20 team league, but it definitely favored people with consistent internet access. And no kids. And no real life. Naturally, I was against the rule change. As another deterrent, rosters were expanded from 23 to 25 players, which means the available talent pool got a little shallower. Teams now need to draft what they need instead of relying on free agents and waiver wire.

My underlying goal was to model my behavior on last year's champ, and I think I did a pretty good job. I think we had similar strategies (don't overspend, focus on infielders, relatively low pitching budget) though he's always been a collector of closers and I abhor spending money for saves. We ended up with similar looking teams and throughout the draft we were within $10-15 of each other. He spent $64 on pitching, I spent $69. His highest paid player is Ryan Howard at $42, mine is Adam Dunn at $43. Both infields are solid, though he's got a hole at third base (Placido Polanco) and I've got a hole at short (Jhonny Peralta/J.J. Hardy). We also both took shots on injured pitchers (Brandon Webb for me, Johan Santana for him). It'll be really funny when we both finish in the middle of the pack.

One of the team owners didn't even bother to show up, so Yahoo was auto-bidding on his behalf. Since the Yahoo draft values didn't take into account the inflation of our 20-team league, he ended up with an injured Chase Utley for $18 (possibly a steal, if he gets on the field sometime in the next two months), a questionable Carlos Beltran for $6 and a bunch of $1 and $2 guys to fill out the roster. Yahoo only spent $78 of his $260 budget. The new roster size and transaction limit rules are going to make it really hard for him to build a competitive squad. The lesson: DON'T MISS YOUR DRAFT!

I made a couple of tactical errors over the course of the draft. After I grabbed Shin-Soo Choo for $38 and Dunn, I got Andre Ethier at $29. I fully intended to not spend more than $15 on my second outfielder, but I got caught up in an early bidding war. I would've rather spent that money on Buster Posey (who went for $32), Victor Martinez ($28) or even a second tier catcher like Carlos Santana ($19), Geovany Soto ($12) or Jorge Posada ($12).

I also overspent on a couple of low-dollar guys. I got into another bidding war over Kila Ka'aihue, who got nominated early (50th overall) and I was pretty high on as a sleeper this year. I certainly didn't want to spend $8 on him though. I also nominated Adam LaRoche about halfway through in an attempt to get one of the richer teams to spend their money, but I ended up "winning" him for $6. He and Ka'aihue will end up splitting time at my utility spot.

At the end of the draft, I still had $5 left which basically means that I messed up in the early part of the draft. I wanted to have some money left toward the end of the draft for some of the sleeper/upside pitchers I was going to need to take, but I didn't anticipate the wild spending spree in the early part of the draft and how it would impact the endgame.

I drank 7 beers during the draft, 6 of them were Pyramid Apricot Ales. Those little bastards are delicious.

Chin Music 2011

I'll write up a full draft recap tomorrow, but here's who I ended up drafting and for how much. Before the draft, I resolved not to spend more than $40 on any single player, focus my investments on infielders and spend no more than $60 on pitching. As you will see, I broke all these rules, but not too badly...

C - Jarrod Saltalamacchia - $1
1B - Adam Dunn - $43
2B - Aaron Hill - $19
3B - Casey McGehee - $25
SS - Jhonny Peralta - $4
OF - Shin-Soo Choo - $38
OF - Andre Ethier - $29
OF - Nate McLouth - $8
UT - Adam LaRoche - $6

BN - Kila Ka'aihue - $8
BN - David Murphy - $2
BN - J.J. Hardy - $2
BN - Melvin Mora - $1

SP - Jon Lester - $30
SP - Dan Haren - $20
SP - Kyle McClellan - $3
RP - Jonny Venters - $2
RP - Joaquin Benoit - $1
P - Erik Bedard - $2
P - Derek Holland - $2
P - Kyle Drabek - $2

BN - Phil Coke - $2
BN - James McDonald - $2
DL - Brandon Webb - $2
DL - Justin Duchscherer - $1

I feel pretty good about my draft. I didn't overspend on any single player (11 players went for over $50 and two - Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki - went for over $60), I only overspent my pitching budget by $9 and the only hole in my starting lineup is at catcher. Regardless, I came really close to hitting the stat levels I thought I would need to be competitive. Batting average is about 10 points too low, I have about 30 homers and 40 RBI to spare, runs are 35 short, steals are low by 50 and OPS is only missed the mark by 10 points. If I could swing an Adam Dunn for Carl Crawford trade, I'd just about exactly hit my marks.

Pitching is another story. I punted saves again this year, but I did grab Venters who should get some chances in Atlanta. I grabbed Lester and Haren as high strikeout anchors and filled the rest of the staff with speculation picks. Webb could be the third ace this team needs, but we won't find out until at least May. Duchscherer could be a helpful ERA and WHIP balance, but health is an issue with him too. I'm expecting big things from Erik Bedard, which is terrifying. The rest of my starters are all "upside" guys who haven't proven anything yet. Pitching propelled me last year (Felix Hernandez, Johan Santana, Clayton Kershaw, Mat Latos & C.J. Wilson), but I also took way more chances on young guys, converted relievers, and injured hurlers this year. Not sure how that's going to play out.

In 11 hours, I guess we'll find out...

Outfield: The Big Green Money Hole

In a 2008 Vanity Fair piece, Rotisserie Baseball creator Daniel Okrent told the tale of the very first roto auction draft in 1980:

What I remember most about that draft was that Mike Schmidt was the first player picked, and he went for $26. I also remember that one of our members, Rob Fleder of the Fleder Mice, drafted the $100 outfield, of Bobby Bonds, Ron LeFlore and Dave Kingman—the three of them together cost $100.

It's a cautionary tale, of course, because the $26 Mike Schmidt had more RBIs in 1980 than the entirety of the $100 outfield. I've tended to believe that numbers are numbers and as long as you reach certain levels it doesn't really matter what position generates them. Maybe that's why I put together the $97 outfield last year.

Matt Holliday, $40: .312 BA, 28 HR, 103 RBI, 95 R, 9 SB, .922 OPS
Jason Bay, $32: .259 BA, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 48 R, 10 SB, .749 OPS
Nelson Cruz, a steal at $25: .318 BA, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 60 R, 17 SB, .950 OPS

Jason Bay's inability to hit home runs, coupled with Nelson Cruz's superhuman ability to injure his hamstrings pretty much doomed the $97 outfield. Luckily, I traded Bay after a month for Clayton Kershaw and when Cruz was healthy he was an absolute beast.

However, I could've spent $3 on these three undrafted outfielders and pulled similar numbers:
Jose Bautista: .260 BA, 54 HR, 124 RBI, 109 R, 9 SB, .995 OPS
Angel Pagan: .290 BA, 11 HR, 69 RBI, 80 R, 37 SB, .765 OPS
Mike Stanton: .259 BA, 22 HR, 59 RBI, 45 R, 5 SB, .833 OPS

I'd take a hit on batting average and a little bit on OPS, but these three out produced in all the counting categories. And for $94 less. Of course there's not going to be an undrafted Jose Bautista every year, but the point is, there is always solid handful of free agent/waiver wire outfielders who can help your team, so it's best not to overspend on the big name guys.

Still, there's bountiful power and speed in the outfield, so it won't kill you to grab a guy like Carlos Gonzalez. Just don't buy three of them.

A change in how the tiers are calculated - first I grouped the top 20, second 20 and third 20 outfielders according to Yahoo rankings. I came up with the average production line for each of those groups:
1-20: .290 BA, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 90 R, 25 SB, .850 OPS
21-40: .275 BA, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 85 R, 20 SB, .800 OPS
41-60: .270 BA, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 75 R, 15 SB, .775 OPS
I then did the same projections based on three-year performance, etc. and assigned 3 points if they matched or exceeded top 20 stats, 2 points if they exceeded second 20 stats and 1 point if they exceeded third 20 stats. Confused? Great. Players listed by number of points (along with 2010 auction value).

18 points (best possible score):
Carlos Gonzalez - $17
The definition of breakout season. He showed flashes of becoming a Carlos Beltran-like player in 2009 and put all his potential together last year. He'll need to string together a few more seasons like that before I'm willing to pay what he's likely to go for this year (I'll guess $49).

17 points:
Shin-Soo Choo - $23
Not sure if Choo is ever going to step up to the next level, but another 20/20 season with a .300 average is easily attainable and will help significantly in all 6 categories.

16 points:
Ryan Braun - $52
Matt Kemp - $44
Braun took a little power dip last year, but I don't think it'll be a trend. If Matt Kemp's low average and high strikeouts may drive his price down, which would make him a great investment because he should bounce back.

15 points:
Josh Hamilton - $25
Matt Holliday - $40
Nelson Cruz - $25
Jayson Werth - $35
The only question mark on Hamilton is whether or not he'll stay healthy. Holliday, on the other hand, has been healthy and consistent for the past 7 years. Cruz, like his Texas teammate Hamilton, is a powerful bat when he's healthy. Werth loses the advantage of that killer Phillies lineup, but the Nats lineup doesn't look bad with him, Zimmerman, LaRoche and Morse.

14 points:
Carl Crawford - $39
Bobby Abreu - $22
C.C. should benefit from playing half his games in Fenway Park, peppering hits off the Green Monster and grabbing extra bases on balls hit to the deep gaps and taking weird caroms. Abreu could have another 20/20 season in him and is the kind of well-rounded player that never hurts a team (you just need better players to actually win).

13 points:
Andre Ethier - $33
Hunter Pence - $25
Corey Hart - $2
Vladimir Guerrero - $11
Ethier went for more than he was worth last year, but he should settle back down into the $25-$28 range after only hitting 23 homers in 2010. Hunter Pence delivers in the countables, but his OPS is lacking. Still, the consistency is admirable. Hart had a great bounceback year last year, but I'm expecting a slight drop-off (not back to 2009 levels, though). Vlad is an interesting case: he was a first-half monster in Texas last year and then fell off the face of the earth after the All-Star Break. His talent is undeniable, but at 36 it's hard to tell how much longer he'll be productive.

12 points:
Aubrey Huff - $6
Nick Markakis - $29
Michael Cuddyer - $21
This is the point where we start to see the talent divide. Aubrey Huff played a big role on last year's championship team, but he's being challenged at first base by rookie Brandon Belt, prompting a move to right field in Cody Ross's absence. I don't understand why people love Nick Markakis so much. Cuddyer's flexibility makes him an asset.

11 points:
Carlos Lee - $30
Nick Swisher - $12
Manny Ramirez - $25
Justin Upton - $35
Raul Ibanez - $21
Andrew McCutchen - $29
Alex Rios - $19
Lee is still the primary run producer in Houston and hopefully his batting average will pop back up. I have an irrational hate of Nick Swisher the person, but Nick Swisher the amalgamation of statistics is exactly the kind of player I want on my team. Healthy Manny can still rake with the best, so since he'll be the DH this year he might be worth an investment. I have the same issue with Justin Upton as I have with Markakis: all-around average players who get drastically over-valued. Everyone's talking up McCutchen like he's guaranteed to have a breakout year, but I can't spend $25+ on a Pirate.

10 points (start of second tier):
Jose Bautista - undrafted
Curtis Granderson - $31
Jason Heyward - $16
Carlos Beltran - $9
Grady Sizemore - $34
Johnny Damon - $11
Shane Victorino - $20
Bautista cannot replicate last year's numbers, but still should be a dependable power source. When Granderson is healthy, he's a weapon. I don't see a sophomore slump in Heyward's future. Beltran and Sizemore are interesting gambles: you could probably get each for around $5-$8 and they may well return well beyond that investment. Or they may breakdown again. If you've got a solid floor, take a shot. Damon or Victorino can do what Markakis does for a lower investment.

9 points:
Colby Rasmus - $3
Carlos Quentin - $23
Delmon Young - $1
Jason Kubel - $23
Adam Lind - $32
Magglio Ordonez - $8
Drew Stubbs - $5
Chris Young - $4
Ichiro Suzuki - $30
Denard Span - $24
Torii Hunter - $24
Ben Zobrist - $32
Rasmus and Delmon Young took the next steps in their careers last year. Carlos Quentin is batting average cancer, but he still hits for OK power. Kubel and Lind need to improve their batting averages. I don't understand the appeal of the new Magglio Ordonez either: he's like a Markakis who doesn't run or hit homers. Not buying Drew Stubbs; too many strikeouts. Ichiro is the kind of player you pick up so you can have low average slow guys like Swisher on your squad. Too many overpriced guys at this level as the talent starts to thin out.

8 points (start of third tier):
Ryan Ludwick - $17
J.D. Drew - $8
Jay Bruce - $21
Brad Hawpe - $16
Jason Bay - $32
Jacoby Ellsbury - $34
Austin Jackson - $1
Vernon Wells - $11
Nate McLouth - $17
Angel Pagan - undrafted
Unless they come cheap Ludwick and Hawpe are bad buys this year in San Diego. Drew is on the down-swing. Bruce is the next Adam Dunn, minus the steals. Jason Bay and Jacoby Ellsbury could not be any more different players, but both need huge bounceback seasons this year. Ellsbury will deliver. Bay, maybe not. Austin Jackson is in for a sophomore let-down. Wells will be fine in Anaheim, though he won't hit 30 dingers again. Buy McLouth, trust me. Pagan could be mini-Ichiro this year.

7 points:
Mike Stanton - undrafted
Andres Torres - undrafted
David DeJesus - $3
Josh Willingham - $4
Marlon Byrd - $2
Hideki Matsui - $5
Jonny Gomes - $2
Stanton will continue to hit for power but he has got to manage his strikeout rate. Torres was a fluke. Of the three new additions in Oakland (DeJesus, Willingham and Matsui), the only I'd take a flyer on is Willingham: dude has a career .841 OPS, which is pretty good for a guy you should be able to grab for $1. Look out for Jonny Gomes. He didn't have the massive season some people expected with regular playing time last year, but he could easily hit 25+ homers in 2011.

6 points:
Luke Scott - $8
Jose Tabata - undrafted
Adam Jones - $22
Jack Cust - $2
David Murphy - $1
B.J. Upton - $25
Juan Pierre - $3
Luke Scott is an underrated hitter. His teammate Adam Jones is an overrated hitter. David Murphy may actually outperform my projection this year since it looks like he's in line for significant playing time.

Bright spots in the 5 points and under crowd:
Ryan Raburn - 5 pts. - undrafted: worth more as a 2B, but flexibility never hurt anyone.
Michael Morse - 5 pts. - undrafted: could have a huge power year, or could be Jonny Gomes. Worth a look.
Will Venable - 5 pts. - $1: interesting power/speed combo, average is scary.
Coco Crisp - 5 pts. - undrafted: showed unbridled speed in second half of 2010, enough pop to start every day.
Cody Ross - 4 pts. - $12: starting the year on the DL, will push Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell or Brandon Belt to the bench.
Matt LaPorta - 2 pts. - $6: stumbled last year, heavy pressure from the organization to perform this season.
Alex Gordon - 1 point - $1: see Matt LaPorta.

Shortstop: Not Worthy of a Pithy Comment

All the experts agree: shortstop is a wasteland this year. It's almost like the old days before A-Rod, Jeter and Nomar made shortstop the nouveau power position. The plus side of having only a couple of big bats at a position in this league is that it evens the field: the big dollars that Hanley and Tulo are going to command will cripple the teams that take them, everybody else gets a space filler who may or may not be preferable to just starting nobody.

I'm serious. Here's an example from last year's draft.

Team Funkeyes goes this route:
SS Yunel Escobar, $15: .256 BA, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 60 R, 6 SB, .655 OPS
OF Carlos Quentin, $23: .243 BA, 26 HR, 87 RBI, 73 R, 2 SB, .821 OPS
Combined, $38: .249, 30 HR, 122 RBI, 133 R, 8 SB, .735 OPS

For that same $38 ($36, actually) Team Sleeves went this way:
SS Cliff Pennington, $1: .250 BA, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 64 R, 29 SB, .687 OPS
OF Adam Dunn, $35: .260 BA, 31 HR, 103 RBI, 85 R, 0 SB, .892 OPS
Combined, $36: .255 BA, 37 HR, 149 RBI, 149 R, 29 SB, .790 OPS

Who got the better deal? Even without Pennington's steals, that's a way better outcome for Sleeves. Not to mention there are plenty of $1 shortstop options out there who can pull consistent ABs and not kill you.

Here are the tiers:

6 categories:
Hanley Ramirez - $55
Derek Jeter - $32
HanRam could end up getting more auction dollars than Pujols this year because of the SS scarcity factor. Pujols will put up better numbers in every category but steals, but that won't stop the conventional wisdom crowd. Jeter is getting downgraded big time, but even a sub-par Jeter can still outperform most shortstops in every category.

5 categories:
Troy Tulowitzki - $46
Jose Reyes - $30
Tulo is worth the big price tag, but he doesn't steal bases and he's injury prone. If Hanley's the only sure bet at this position, I'm not gambling with big dollars. Reyes should still be a valuable fantasy shortstop, but I think his days of 55+ steals are over.

4 categories:
Jimmy Rollins - $36
Alexei Ramirez - $12
Stephen Drew - $15
Miguel Tejada - $10
This is the group of guys who are going to go for upwards of $20 as teams get desperate that they'll lose out on above-average shortstops. None of these guys are dominant players, but you'd never know it by the price tags they'll pull. Of the 4, Tejada may be the bargain because of his age.

3 categories:
None
Another steep talent drop-off, though the overall talent level is much lower.

2 categories:
Jhonny Peralta - $10
Juan Uribe - $1
Alex Gonzalez - undrafted
Ian Desmond - $6
Rafael Furcal - $6
Maicer Izturis - $4
Elvis Andrus - $21
Ryan Theriot - $7
Peralta, Uribe and Gonzalez all get bumped up because I'll be punting steals. Desmond is a good pick to mix speed and power, though not enough to make a huge impact week-to-week. Furcal and Izturis are more or less the same player, speed with just enough pop to get by. Elvis Andrus will get paid again to be that Chone Figgins-type one-dimensional player that I hate. If I can get Ryan Theriot at a discount - say $3 or fewer - he can start on my squad.

1 category:
Tsuyoshi Nishioka - undrafted
Mike Aviles - $1
Marco Scutaro - $14
J.J. Hardy - $2
Starlin Castro - undrafted
Omar Infante - undrafted
Asdrubal Cabrera - $13
Jason Bartlett - $22
Erick Aybar - $13
Yuniesky Betancourt - undrafted
Cliff Pennington - $1
As previously stated, I'm way up on Nishioka, but I won't overspend to get him. Barring injury, this may be the Mike Aviles breakout year we've been waiting on. Scutaro isn't worth $14, but he is very good and is a potential fantasy starter if he can hold off Jed Lowrie. J.J. Hardy in a solid Oriole lineup should get some power numbers back. Everybody loves Starlin Castro and I'm going to guess that he goes for about $18. The rest of these guys don't seem worth more than $1 to me.

0 categories (with upside):
Yunel Escobar - $15
Reid Brignac - undrafted
Alcides Escobar - $4
Orlando Cabrera - $8
Clint Barmes - $9
Escobar in Toronto is intriguing since it seems like everyone who goes there starts hitting homers out of nowhere. I like Brignac to hit between 10-15 homers this year too. Barmes would've been a great pick until he broke his hand in spring training.

Jed Lowrie won the affection of the Boston faithful filling in for the injured Dustin Pedroia last year. Unfortunately, with a healthy D.P., Scutaro entrenched at short, Youkilis shifted over to third and the addition of Adrian Gonzalez, it'll be a challenge to find playing time for Jed. He could conceivably play every day, filling in for the starting infield which makes him an interesting pick-up if he can still swing the bat while filling the utility role.

Third Base: Steals at the Hot Corner?

Well, I meant "steals" like deals or bargains, but David Wright will do, one of the very few sources of speed at third base. Chone Figgins will be 3B-eligible after a couple of weeks, but I already explained how I feel about him in my second base round-up.

So are there any deals to be had at the hot corner? The talent at this position isn't nearly as shallow as it is at shortstop, but not as deep as second base where there are more upside picks. The top guys are still going to demand top dollar, but some of the middle tier guys may be good enough to propel a team if you can surround him with complementary players.

Last year, I skimped at third and drafted Brandon Wood (hoping for a breakout that never came) and Edwin Encarnacion as a throwback. While E.E. finished the season with 21 homers, it was deceptive production as he missed a month to an arm injury and got sent to the minors in mid-season. I dropped him out of frustration, picked up Houston rookie Chris Johnson (a pleasant surprise), then eventually traded Matt Holliday for Ryan Zimmerman at the deadline.

The lesson: invest at third base. You need production out of this position and it's less nerve-wracking to just pony up the dough than speculate and gamble all season. That said, here are the third base tiers for 2011 (and their 2010 auction value):

6 categories:
Evan Longoria - $46
David Wright - $33
Alex Rodriguez - $50
Steals are the leg up here, and while there are a couple more speedsters at the position, those guys don't pack the power the way the top three do. Longoria's power numbers took a dip last year (only 22 homers), but even at that level he more than contributes in this group. Wright's $33 price tag is sure to go up as he rediscovered his power stroke in 2010. A-Rod could be a steal this year since he only swiped 4 bags last year.

5 categories:
Ryan Zimmerman - $35
Casey McGehee - $6
Zim is a legitimate star who routinely gets overlooked because of where he plays. He could push 100 runs and 100 RBIs again this year with the addition of Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche to the lineup. I feel stupid for letting McGehee go for $6 last year, but I spent too heavy in the early part of the auction and didn't have the bucks left to get into a bidding war.

4 categories:
Jose Bautista - undrafted
Adrian Beltre - $10
Aramis Ramirez - $30
Mark Reynolds - $40
It's not every year that the MLB home run leader goes undrafted in a fantasy league. Given the depth of the Ugueth League, I'd wager that Bautista didn't get taken in most standard mixed leagues and maybe not even in some AL-onlys. He's gonna get some bucks this year, but I'd be shocked if he knocks over 35 homers this year. Beltre should flourish in Texas if he stays healthy. Aramis posted his worst average and OPS since 2002, but I'm guessing he's got another good season or two left in him. Reynolds will hit over the Mendoza line this year and even if that's only .215, he's still worth a big investment.

3 categories:
Martin Prado - $7
Prado's worth more at 3B than 2B or OF (where he'll play primarily this year), but it's dependent on him continuing to hit for .300+ average with a fair number of doubles since he's not a consistent power threat.

2 categories:
Pablo Sandoval - $39
Michael Cuddyer - $21
Scott Rolen - $8
Michael Young - $21
Chipper Jones - $14
Miguel Tejada - $10
Placido Polanco - $6
Kung Fu Panda was a huge disappointment last year (literally *rim shot*), but after dropping almost 40 pounds in the off-season I'm expecting a big bounce back. Cuddyer took a power dip like most Twins last year and Target Field won't do him many favors this year. Michael Young might be traded and he hits 40 points lower on the road compared to his numbers at Arlington. Rolen, Chipper and Tejada are all big question marks due to age.

1 category:
Chris Johnson - undrafted
Jhonny Peralta - $10
Omar Infante - undrafted
Chase Headley - $4
Maicer Izturis - $4
Johnson needs to prove that he wasn't a rookie fluke. Peralta's worth more as a SS. As a Tigers fan, I refuse to believe that Omar Infante is any good. Headley and Izturis provide a little speed, but don't bring enough overall to be a starting option.

0 categories (with upside):
Pedro Alvarez - undrafted
Ian Stewart - $26
Neil Walker - undrafted
Juan Uribe - $1
David Freese - $3
Alex Gordon - $1
Casey Blake - $8
Kevin Kouzmanoff - $5
Brandon Inge - $3
Jose Lopez - $16
Edwin Encarnacion - $1
Melvin Mora - $1
Wilson Betemit - undrafted
Brent Morel - undrafted
Alvarez is sure to command big bucks, but I'm not going to gamble on a sophomore campaign from a Pirate. Repeat for Neil Walker. Ian Stewart is a walking malady, but worth a flyer if the price doesn't get too high. If Betemit stays healthy, he could be a sleeper power source. I'd take Encarnacion for $1 again if he comes around, assuming he gets the bulk of the DH at-bats in Toronto.

The Marlins are a mess at third base. For most of the spring they were grooming Matt Dominguez to take the job, but he proved that he couldn't hit water if he fell off a raft. Donnie Murphy looks like the guy, but he's not worth a buck.

Ty Wigginton could be in for a good amount of playing time in Colorado with Todd Helton being old, Ian Stewart being a likely injury bet and the second base job mostly unsettled between Jose Lopez and Jonathan Herrera.

THE RULES HAVE CHANGED

In a previous post, I explained the Ugueth League's transactions rule (or rather, lack thereof):

Teams may make daily transactions and there are no limits on the number of transactions a team may make over the course of the season (the median number of transactions made by a team last year was 40, though the league champ made a whopping 324 transactions. I made 86.)

Monday night, Commish posts this:

One rule suggestion that was sent in to me, and one that I like personally very much, is to make roster changes effective on a weekly basis (Monday).

This would make it more like football in that there is no advantage to the person who can be online more often or who happens to be up early enough to pick up some scrub pitcher on a Sunday morning. I personally think that is one very generic aspect of our league that sucks, the cycling of pitchers. This would eliminate that for good.

Sure, I've cursed the names of a couple fantasy owners who beat me to a key free agent because I got hammered the night before and didn't get up in time to grab the guy I needed. If you're competitive and you want it bad enough, you'll make the time to make your adds and drops. It wasn't an exact correlation last year, but the teams who made a lot of moves generally performed better. It's not that they were gaming the system, they were just more involved. The more attention you pay to your team, the more likely you are to know how to improve it.

After 48 hours and a league vote, Commish posted this tonight:

A late evening vote breaks a 5-5 tie and passes the new roster rule.

So 6 votes changed a rule for a 20 team league. That seems fair.

There's a counter proposal to keep add/drops instantaneous, but to limit them to 3 per week. I think that's an acceptable compromise, but that still doesn't solve the issue of people who have better or more convenient internet access. I really don't think it's a problem: streaming pitchers can work to great effect in a 10-12 team mixed league because there are always mid-tier starters in the free agent pool. In a 20 team league, starting pitching is at a premium and there's usually no more than 1 or 2 free agent starters each day and they are, well, not good. You're taking a big chance in the losses, ERA and WHIP categories, just so you can take wins and strikeouts. A 2-for-3 swap doesn't seem like a smart gamble.

This rule change is actually making me think twice about whether I want to stay in this league. It's been a long time, but I don't really know these guys at all. I play fantasy baseball for the challenge, and this new rule change just made it less challenging for me.

Second Base or Trauma Ward?

Chase Utley's patellar tendinitis is ruling the MLB newswire right now as a multitude of nerds try to figure out where their second base production is going to come from this year. The group is very top-heavy talent-wise and those few players have significant injury histories. Utley broke his hand in 2007, had hip surgery in 2008 and sprained his thumb in 2010. Dustin Pedroia missed over half of the 2010 season with a broken foot. Brian Roberts dislocated his elbow in 2005, injured his groin in 2006, missed 91 games with an abdominal strain in 2010 and is battling back spasms this year. What hasn't broken down on Ian Kinsler? Answer: not his thumb (2006), his foot (2007), his ankle (2010) or his groin (2008 and 2010).

Second basemen are a high-risk group and command a lot of auction dollars due to the low talent supply. The top-ten highest paid 2Bs went for an average of $31 with Utley pulling an obscene $49. You can never predict injuries (unless they occur before draft day), so each of my projections assumes a full, healthy major league season. You just can't take it to the bank with this group, though.

6 categories:
Ian Kinsler - $34
Chase Utley - $49
I had Utley on top of this board where he belongs, but until someone can definitively tell me that he can move side-to-side (kinda important for a 2B) I'm avoiding him. A healthy Ian Kinsler can help you win all six categories week in and week out.

5 categories:
Robinson Cano - $31
Dustin Pedroia - $31
Cano is as close to a sure thing as there is in baseball, and with all the injury upheaval at this position, I'd imagine whoever takes him is going to pay for that consistency. Pedroia is coming off a lost season, but I'm expecting him to contribute in everything but homers (his career max is 17.)

4 categories:
Brandon Phillips - $31
Dan Uggla - $23
Rickie Weeks - $12
Ben Zobrist - $32
Brian Roberts - $27
Brandon Phillips will get you numbers, but his historically low walk rate is a detriment in the OPS column. Uggla is a steals punter's dream and I'm going to be giving him a hard look if he doesn't command too high a price. Rickie Weeks is back and won't go for $12 again. Ben Zobrist is likely to bounce around between first, second and right field; I'd feel more comfortable investing if he had a steady job. If other owners are leery of Brian Roberts, they're right to be, but he may end up being the steal of the draft.

3 categories:
None.
Again, a steep talent drop-off that raises the prices for the top-tier guys.

2 categories:
Aaron Hill - $28
Ryan Raburn - undrafted
Kelly Johnson - $3
Martin Prado - $7
Howie Kendrick - $14
Ryan Theriot - $7
Hill should continue to put up power numbers and he'll post a better batting average than last year's .205. Raburn qualifies at 2B but he'll be playing left field for the Tigers this year and has shown nothing but promise in limited playing time so far. I left a gaping hole at second in last year's draft, but traded for Kelly Johnson in April; he won't put up last year's numbers, but he should help in runs and OPS. Prado should by all rights be playing third base, but Chipper Jones refuses to go away; he'll shift to LF instead. I think Howie Kendrick is useless and I'm going to throw his name out early as a money suck. Ryan Theriot, the Cardinals shortstop, has some speed and is capable of hitting for a respectable average.

1 category:
Tsuyoshi Nishioka - undrafted
Mike Aviles - $1
Melvin Mora - $1
Juan Uribe - $1
Marco Scutaro - $14
Chone Figgins - $23
Omar Infante - undrafted
Placido Polanco - $6
Maicer Izturis - $4
Bill Hall - undrafted
Orlando Hudson - $4
Freddy Sanchez - $6
Sean Rodriguez - undrafted
Luis Castillo - $1
Eric Young Jr. - undrafted
I am very high on Nishioka and probably not for any good reasons. He's still young, hit for high average in Japan and stole a fair number of bases. He could be an Ichiro-mold infielder, or he could be completely inconsequential. Most years, I leave that gamble to someone else, but this year I might take a chance. This could be Mike Aviles' real breakout year (third time's a charm.) Mora and Uribe should provide some pop. If Marco Scutaro can fend off Jed Lowrie all season, he could score a lot of runs in that Sox lineup. I will never draft Chone Figgins again; the definition of a one-dimensional player. Does anyone really believe that Omar Infante was an All-Star last year? Polanco could shift back over to second if Utley misses any time. Bill Hall might hit 20 bombs in Houston, but won't be good for much else. Rodriguez, Castillo and Young all need to produce this spring to win a job or else they're worthless.

0 categories (but with upside):
Gordon Beckham - $15
Neil Walker - undrafted
Reid Brignac - undrafted
Skip Schumaker - $4
Mark Ellis - $1
Danny Espinosa - undrafted
Clint Barmes - $9
Carlos Guillen - $1
Beckham doesn't do it for me: he'll post average, well-rounded numbers, but those don't win head-to-head leagues. Walker and Brignac are a lot of people's sophomore breakout picks, but I won't overpay for them. Mark Ellis is so underrated, but he still never produces to prove anybody wrong. Espinosa could be a ROY candidate if he can hit over .250. Games played over/under on Carlos Guillen: 87. Place your bets. FYI: the under would've won the past two seasons.

The Mets second base competition between Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejeda and Rule 5 pick Brad Emaus will likely produce no one really capable of helping the team as a starter. Castillo could provide some bench speed.

The Rockies situation is a little more promising. Jose Lopez (acquired from Seattle) has a decent power bat and could prosper at Coors Field. Eric Young Jr. is a speedster who could do some serious damage if he could hit for average like his dad. Jonathan Herrera has impressed with the bat this spring, but would likely be a backup if he makes the squad at all. The 25 year-old Chris Nelson is an intriguing power prospect but probably won't make the roster.

In Seattle, Dustin Ackley - the second overall pick in the 2009 draft after Stephen Strasburg - was moved by the Mariners brass to second base. He primarily played the outfield and first base at North Carolina. He's a high contact, high average hitter with some speed potential. Probably won't be an impact player this season if he makes the team, but might be someone to consider a couple years down the road.

Joe Maddon has a lot of moving parts in his defense, the most prominent of which is Ben Zobrist. Zobrist could play first, second, or right field, but the Rays have serviceable options in Dan Johnson, Sean Rodriguez and Matt Joyce, respectively. Zobrist had a huge year in 2009 but a steep fall off in 2010 as he was being moved all around the field. I'd feel much more confident in him if he had a steady job, even if it is at the expense of one of the three other guys.

First Base: How Much Is Pujols Worth?

So the Cardinals couldn't sign Albert Pujols to a long-term contract. Details aren't out there, but the rumor is that he wanted 10 years at $30 million per. Considering that he's the best and most consistent hitter in the bigs by a country mile, I think he's more than worth it. But how much is he worth in a fantasy auction?

Checking a variety of sources, El Hombre's average going rate is $48, or about 18% of the total draft budget. It seems pretty irresponsible to wrap up that much of your budget in one player, but Pujols is more than just some player, right? In the UL, we've got 20 teams, which means a lot more money to go around AND a thinning of the talent pool. That makes owning a player like Pujols not just an advantage, but almost a necessity.

Albert went for $57 in last year's draft, about 22% of the total $260 budget. It is a sizable chunk to spend on one player, for sure, but the same owner then spent $55 on Hanley Ramirez and $33 on Andre Ethier. Spending over half his budget on three players (and another 25% on three more) only got him 6th place and a division title worth $100. Not bad.

In 2009, I drafted Pujols at $61 and I did NOT fare that well. Not Albert's fault, of course, but I couldn't afford to put much of a team around him. I learned my lesson in 2010 and let a lot of the highly rated first basemen go early for big money (five of them went for over $50.) However, I knew I needed to grab somebody to anchor my offense and I had my heart set on Miguel Cabrera. I wasn't willing to pay $52 for him, so I let him go. Luckily, I grabbed Adrian Gonzalez - who I regarded as the last acceptable first baseman - for $41.

A quick market analysis shows a deeper field at first base and outfield this year. There;'s also significantly more starting pitching depth, which makes me think that I may be able to get a better deal on a top flight first baseman this year. Let's take a look at the tiers (and their 2010 draft values):

6 categories:
Albert Pujols - $57
It's a stretch to say that Pujols is above average in steals because the SB average among first baseman is so low. Plus, he's 31 years old and he averages 7.5 steals per year, so it's hardly a significant advantage. Still, Albert is going to be Albert and he may even be playing for a landmark free agent contract this year. If there's a year that he's worth $60 at auction, this may be it.

5 categories:
Miguel Cabrera - $51
Mark Teixeira - $51
Adrian Gonzalez - $41
Justin Morneau - $37
If you're not willing to break the bank on Albert, these guys will put up plenty of big numbers for you. I wouldn't worry about Cabrera's off-field problems: he's simply too good a hitter to let that stuff interfere with his play. All Tex does is hit 100-35-100 every year and I'm guessing his BA will come back up. A-Gone is making good progress from his shoulder surgery AND moving to a friendly hitting environment at Fenway. If Morneau conquers his concussion issue, he's in line for a HUGE comeback year.

4 categories:
Ryan Howard - $52
Prince Fielder - $51
Joey Votto - $34
Still no worries at this level. You lose a little bit in batting average with Howard and Fielder, but they will get their HRs and RBIs. NL MVP Joey Votto is an interesting case: his walk rate was extraordinarily high this year and I don't know if that's a repeatable feat. I'm guessing he's going to take a dip, but not to the point where he won't be valuable. Just don't overspend for last year's career year.

3 categories:
Adam Dunn - $35
Kevin Youkilis - $34
Dunn will be DHing in Chicago, so as long as he makes the mental adjustment he should continue to put up numbers. Youkilis will be 3B eligible after about two weeks and I'm guessing that he'll actually have higher value there than at first, even though he's a passable 1B solution this year regardless.

2 categories:
Paul Konerko - $7
Kendry Morales - $32
I can only guess that all 20 of us thought Konerko was "over the hill" last spring, hence the $7 auction price. All he did was have a career year. The now 35 year-old Konerko won't repeat those numbers, but he'll definitely fetch a higher price. If Morales recovers from the most freak injury in the history of baseball, he should post some respectable numbers for the Halos.

1 category:
Billy Butler - $21
Carlos Pena - $24
Victor Martinez - $27
Buster Posey - $1
Pablo Sandoval - $39
Michael Cuddyer - $21
I want to believe that this is Billy Butler's breakout year, but I'm not going to pay for a wish. Carlos Pena should put up his normal power numbers at Wrigley, but the BA is probably a lost cause (he should at least get over the Mendoza Line this season, though.) Martinez and Posey are catcher-eligible, but make this list based on batting average. Sandoval will primarily play 3B and Cuddyer is 3B/OF eligible.

0 categories (but could fill the Utility spot):
Aubrey Huff - $6
Derrek Lee - $36
Adam LaRoche - $11
Carlos Lee - $30
Adam Lind - $32
Luke Scott - $8
Mitch Moreland - undrafted
Gaby Sanchez - $1
Ben Zobrist - $32
Mike Napoli - $9
Brad Hawpe - $16
Ike Davis - undrafted
Lance Berkman - $18
Garrett Jones - $15
James Loney - $17
Kila Ka'aihue - undrafted
Howie Kendrick - $14
Russell Branyan - $5
Matt LaPorta - $6
Juan Rivera - $14
Michael Morse - undrafted
Huff is a gamble at 34 years old. I don't think Derrek Lee is done yet, and he'll actually have a pretty solid O's lineup around him. Curious how Brad Hawpe will fare at Petco Park, one of the worst hitter's parks in MLB. Berkman in RF is going to be an adventure all year. Kila Ka'aihue might be a sleeper power pick as KC's DH. Matt LaPorta needs to put up or pack up this year.

Tampa Bay says they're committed to Dan Johnson at first, but we won't really know how things are going to break down until the end of the spring. It really all depends where Joe Maddon wants Ben Zobrist to play: first, second, or right field.

The Diamondbacks 1B competition is fierce as well. They brought in slugger Russell Branyan on a minor league contract to audition for the job alongside former Yankee minor leaguer Juan Miranda and homegrown power prospect Brandon Allen. Allen has the most potential, but will probably start in AAA. Branyan and Miranda may form a left-right platoon, which ordinarily would favor Branyan (the lefty) if it weren't for regular doses of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jimenez, Mat Latos and had Billingsley in the NL West.

Atlanta's rookie first baseman Freddie Freeman could make a run at rookie of the year. He's only 21 and has a lot of time to develop, but he's showing some signs that his bat is major league ready and he's fielding the position really well. The only reason I haven't rated him as an "upside" prospect is because I generally don't like to invest in rookies. If I can grab him late for $1, I'll take a shot. Otherwise, let somebody else take the risk.